law of large numbers Posted February 22, 2010 Share Posted February 22, 2010 Hello i had a strange dream last nite involving a betting system that basically tracks every team, like every team has its only account, u lay every team every game for the entire season in mutiple leagues. If a team wins u add the lose to the set stake for there next fixture, if they win again u do the same until they draw or lose then the stake gets reset to the starting stake again, looking at the stats this morning in a few leagues we have 6,7,8 winning game streaks for a few teams but there ALL come to an end. The bank i supose will need to be pretty big but i will be doing 50p lays and not all games are on at the same time or day which will help reduce the bank required. I will be doing the top 10-12 leagues in europe and over a season the money should soon stack up, could i pls ask for some feedback on this and possible drawbacks and pitfalls, thank u for ur time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
law of large numbers Posted February 22, 2010 Author Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system Actually just seen inn the dutch league we got 12 and 10 game winning streak with PSV and Twent, the only 1 i could of seen being a problem is norwich's 9 game winning streak due to the odds on those games as well most of these other winning streaks are from teams thats are odds on and can easily be absorbed. pls feel free to flame me all critisim is constructive which is why ive posted in the first place! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted February 22, 2010 Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system So you will lay both teams in every match in multiple leagues? If you do this project I'm sure you will develop a (un)healthy love for draws. I see a number of problems, both with risk, staking, bank required, mathematical laws etc. but I would love to see this done in practice as a fun experiment, although I think you would fail miserably as we're basically just dealing with a pimped martingale system here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 22, 2010 Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system u lay every team every game for the entire season in mutiple leagues Indeed, it causes laying both teams in mutual match... :\ I suppose more realistic idea would be to chose one or two average teams from one league, as they are not expected to have too long winning streak, and lay odds are still acceptable, let's say around evens at home, and not longer than 4 away... But as Lardonio says, you'd better backtest it first! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
law of large numbers Posted February 22, 2010 Author Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system Thanks for the repleys, firstly yes ill be laying both teams in every match the most popular euro leagues and at the start it will be pretty straight forward but as i encounter losing streaks it will become alittle more complicated e.g. lets say man utd have won 4 games in a row and their playing spurs who have won 2 in a row, my laying stakes will be quiet high on both BUT i will have a winner on one of them and then that will be reset back to the original stake and possibly could reset both of them with a draw so yeah draws will be my fav result which also happens to be the most common so thats not a bad thing for starters. Yes a biggish bank will be required but not that big as i will be collecting money from most of the teams over a 2-3 game period so it should(hope?) baiscally cycle round and round but gradually cycle upwards slowly. I will be starting this tonight in the turkish league and working through all the fixtures tonight and everyday here on in, should be interesting but need to find me calculator now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 22, 2010 Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system Is it me or does this sounds like another modification of the suicidal Martingales? You mentioned that you are going to bet on the top 10-12 leagues in Europe. That's at least a few hundred teams, which means your bank must be really huge. As for the laying odds, it can vary over a wide range and in some cases, the odds are awfully low such that you need to stake a huge amount in order to cover your previous losses. That's something I would worry about. Still, you can always do a paper trail and try it out. Back-testing is an option as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
law of large numbers Posted February 22, 2010 Author Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system yes i am martingaling every team in those leagues to put simply, tracking every team and laying them, bank will be quiet big but due to different kick off times its not as big you may think. One of the drawbacks i should encounter is if 3 or 4 teams go on a winning streak at the same time thats when i will really need my bank, from what i can see from this season alone is that 3-4 teams have indeed had winning streaks at the same time if i can weather those choppy waters then everything should be ok and again i hope! Should be fun trying maybe someone with the right software could do a backtest then? i dont have the right software nor the time to manually do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
law of large numbers Posted February 22, 2010 Author Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system Right all 2nites bets are on, included the argentina's league as well now see how we go as thats just started, lets hope for some draws to start off nicely eh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted February 22, 2010 Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system I dont know if im understanding this right? Say liverpool are playing man utd. Are you going to lay both Liverpool and Man Utd? If so, this will never work - it would be just the same as backing both teams to win... and you will have to odd upset where the long odds win, but there is no value in your selections. I may have misunderstood tho? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
law of large numbers Posted February 22, 2010 Author Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system Fenerbahce2 - 3Bursaspor That was my opening bet for this system and was the worst possible start,fenerbahce will have 1 pound added to their account while bursaspor is now on -5.6 pound( i keep having to write the pound word out as i dont have a pound sign on this keyboard), not a gd start for the bursaspor account the next lay will be 6.6 again the worst possible start to that account and could soon get out of hand, i have typed this out to try and show alittle clearer what i plan to do. Shadowvkc yes i will would lay both those and no backing wouldnt work, the lay would be whatever the outstanding debt on their account would be if there was 1 that is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnyman9000 Posted February 22, 2010 Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system If you're worried about the systems performance after the first bet i'd reconsider, wil be interesting though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted February 22, 2010 Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system I dont get it then... you say backing every team to win wouldnt work... so why would laying every team work?? It's my understanding that if the odds for backing are: Liverpool 2 Man utd. 5 then the lay odds would be arround Liverpool 5 Man utd. 2 So there is no difference if you back both, or lay both? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
law of large numbers Posted February 22, 2010 Author Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system Im tracking every team and just laying them, so if say liverpool have won the last 3 games then just for examples sake say they have lost me 10 quid then ill lay them to win 11 quid at whatever odds they are at( it was 50p but i have now changed that, but looking at the amount of fixtures there are 2mor maybe i should of kept it at 50p!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 22, 2010 Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system I am not sure if this system will work, particularly with the Martingdale element and it may be better to back test or paper trial first. Good luck if you decide to pursue it. :hope So there is no difference if you back both' date=' or lay both?[/quote'] I guess the thinking behind laying is that if there is a draw you would win both lays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
law of large numbers Posted February 22, 2010 Author Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system it might well fail due to funds but looking at the stats i think its possible, the reason behind laying is its alot harder to win 7 games in a row as opposed to being unbeaten in 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
law of large numbers Posted February 22, 2010 Author Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system Ok first set of results are in dont really mean anything yet and wont do till im guessing at least 4-5 rounds in but today overall profit down 1.5 pound at 1 pound stakes and that included the 6.6 losing lay of bursaspor so not that bad, its how i do when these runs start that will be interesting will the other games profits keep me in the game long enough to weather these runs?? time will tell. 2mors a full league 2 and 3 fixture list so should be another test, oh 1 last thing i wont be doing cup games! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system it might well fail due to funds but looking at the stats i think its possible' date=' the reason behind laying is its alot harder to win 7 games in a row as opposed to being unbeaten in 7.[/quote'] Martingales fail almost 100% of the time due to lack of funds, and that is why Martingales is suicidal. That's because the only time you do not have lack of funds, is when you have an infinite amount of funds - which is impossible. As for the 'pounds' issue, you can use 'points' to denote. It all means the same. Just a final question, are you doing a paper trail or are you betting with real money for this system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xchangeDollarz Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Came to me in a dream system The concept is not bad. Worth a paper trail. you might have to tweak it, though. I'd assume your system will work better if you pick out a bunch of clubs out of these 12 leagues that you assume wont go on to have long winning streaks and arent at that bad of odds. Good luck with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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