DC Posted October 30, 2004 Share Posted October 30, 2004 Some of you may remember the multiple scores system I ran for a bit last season. I didn't really have a decent selection plan and that was where the system fell down. It was based on backing 5 or 6 correct scores in games where there was a hot favourite at home. The correct scores, when staked correctly, would make more money than simply backing the home team to win. I used to back 1-0 2-0 3-0 2-1 and 3-1 for home favourites or if I was extremely confident, 1-0 2-0 3-0 4-0 5-0 & 6-0. The system was successful because over a period of time it was possible to create larger odds than normal. Today I see a superb opportunity to make money from the Arsenal v Southampton game. Betfair price Arsenal at 1.19 and most bookmakers at much less. Backing 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and "any-unquoted score" (either side would need to score 4 or more to land this bet) it is possible to get an Arsenal win at 1.54 1-0 17.11% of bank @ 9.00 2-0 19.75% of bank @ 7.80 3-0 19.75% of bank @ 7.80 AUQ 43.39% of bank @ 3.55 Obviously the bet will fail should the final score finish 0-0 1-1 2-2 3-3 2-1 3-1 or 3-2, OR if southampton win without scoring 4?! This is the risk I'll be taking. I will post up more suitable qualifiers when I see fit. Cheers for now Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted October 30, 2004 Author Share Posted October 30, 2004 Re: Correct Scores I'll get my (very empty) coat... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted November 20, 2004 Author Share Posted November 20, 2004 Re: Correct Scores Assuming first bet was 10points bank now stands at 90points. Arsenal v WBA best odds 1.22 1-0 18.39% of stake @ 8.80 2-0 18.81% of stake @ 8.60 3-0 20.22% of stake @ 8.00 AUQ 42.58% of stake @ 3.80 Bet = 10points. Actual odds 1.62 All prices with Betfair. Let's try and claw back some money. Danny edit: ??? the wheels have come off at Arsenal and now they've well and truly come off this strategy. I'll enjoy watching this post slide down the table and with tips like this you can see why I'm still in that day job. Nite all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mardach Posted November 29, 2004 Share Posted November 29, 2004 Re: Correct Scores Hi, I think a correct score system could work, I have been using one this season and made a small profit. Selection is of course important and the key is to use teams in leagues who fit into the system. I use 1-0,2-0,3-0,2-1,3-1 and it has worked so far. Teams like Rangers and Celtic have for the past four seasons won over 50% of their home games within the margins of the system and the trend seems to continue this season. The key is to get the good odds early in the week before bookies like SJ and Bet356 slash them. For example: Celtic-Inverness: 1-0 11, 2-0 10, 2-1 19, 3-0 8, 3-1 13. This made for a great 2,25 bet. The PL teams have not been so good for this kind of system this season, only Chelsea have been performing like a "machine" in the league and the cups. Serie A (Juventus and AC Milan constantly win within the margins of the system) and the smaller european leagues offer better markets for a correct scores system. The cups are also good for this kind of system. If one uses the right bookies (and Betfair) and takes the odds before they go down then a system like this could work in the long run. I have always had a "thing" for correct scores but it was DannyCash who gave me the inspiration to try out a corrct score system for a season, so thank you Danny and don´t give up on a system that could (can) work. Mardach Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 16, 2005 Author Share Posted January 16, 2005 Re: Correct Scores A woeful start to the this thread thanks to the Arsenal. However, I have since posted up 3 successful bets in various threads in this forum, and shall continue to post further selections up in THIS thread from now on. Sorry to the moderators for the confusion. Update: Bank stood at 80pts following 2 x 10pt failures. Recent POSTED selections in this forum: Liverpool v Watford 10 pts @ 1.72 WON 1-0 Rangers v Dunfermiline 10 pts @ 1.89 WON 3-0 Barcelona v Real Sociedad 10 pts @ 1.68 WON 1-0 New bank now stands at 102.9pts Cheers Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluekinkladze Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Danny - or anyone else - if Burnley v Liverpool or Exeter v Man U fall into your system Sporting Odds are refunding correct score bets (and first goalscorer) if either match finishes with less than 3 goals. I think to a maximum of £100 ..... :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 18, 2005 Author Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Dunfermiline v East Fife (1.13 home win) Going to take a small risk that Fife WON'T score tonight and fife is the most they conceed... 1-0 £18.32 @ 11.00 Bet365 2-0 £25.20 @ 8.00 Coral 3-0 £23.72 @ 8.50 Coral 4-0 £20.16 @ 10.00 Tote 5-0 £12.60 @ 16.00 Tote = £100 stake - returning £201.60 if successful (2.02) (for the sake of my thread £10 = 1pt) Let's make 'em pay lads... Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Correct Scores "and fife is the most they will concede" lol, i assume you mean 5! Gonna play this one I think Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 18, 2005 Author Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Correct Scores no Sco, deliberate pun I'm afraid .... 1-0 with 25 gone.... by the way ANYONE WHO WANT'S the Excel Spreadsheet, there is a calculator on www.oddschecker.com on the right hand side under Dutching calc It works just as well but doesn't give the converted odds Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Unlucky Danny, should have stuck with the scores with 3-1 in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 18, 2005 Author Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Dunf 3 East Strife 1 Yes Dave. I always hate losing a football bet but this one was a killer, not only a last minute goal to destroy my bet but, as you say it was one of the original scorelines I tend to do. Damn it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 18, 2005 Share Posted January 18, 2005 Re: Correct Scores no Sco, deliberate pun I'm afraid .... :rollin loving the fife joke. Unlucky mate tonight, really was terribly unlucky, but you really have something good here i reckon and theres lots of profit to be made.. makes backing 1/10 teams worth while, but im sure you already know all this anyway, just wishing you good luck, well any luck better than tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 19, 2005 Author Share Posted January 19, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Thanks for the kind words, Exeter v Man U tomorrow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 Re: Correct Scores What scores are you covering for the Man U game? I only say this as exeter shouldnt score, but Man U could spank them? I could see man u getting 4 or 5? Anyway let me know, cos if the odds are OK, i might have a play Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainfitzy Posted January 19, 2005 Share Posted January 19, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Ive backed Man U @ 3 4 and 5 to zilch. Not bad prices to be honest 7.5, 8 and 10 respectivley with Hills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 19, 2005 Author Share Posted January 19, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Exeter v Man Utd 0-2 £22.13 @ 7.6 0-3 £22.73 @ 7.4 Any unquoted i/e (4-0,5-0,4-1 etc ...) £55.14 @ 3.05 Betfair prices = 1.68 before commission or... 0-2 £26.48 @ 7.00 general 0-3 £24.70 @ 7.50 Coral/WH 0-4 £23.16 @ 8.00 general 0-5 £16.84 @ 11.00 tote 0-6 £8.82 @ 21.00 Coral/WH = 1.85 I'm taking no risks and going with the first option tonight folks. I will not have it that Exeter can score against a Premiership side that has kept 7 clean sheets in a row! I WILL NOT HAVE IT! If Exeter do score and the FACup strikes it's jinx upon me I shall never return to this board.... Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 20, 2005 Author Share Posted January 20, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Well I hated watching that game, but it eventually finished 0-2 :clap +£60.89 after commission = +6.1 points profit Bank now stands at 99pts after 3 losers and 3 winners. Cheers Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Well done Danny - been following this thread and decided to have a go last night on 0-3, 0-4 and 0-5 . It felt as if Man u knew I had money on it and decided on not scoring more than two ! - do they have contact with Bet365. I went with £5 on each score as I'm a bit like Komp when it comes to trying to work out which bet should have what stake, BUT IT DID NOT MATTER LAST NIGHT. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finn McCool Posted January 20, 2005 Share Posted January 20, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Following this thred with interest as i enjoy having a dabble at c/scores question is will Danny boy follow Man utd with 7 clean sheets in a row playing a toothless Villa at the theatre of dreams.:dude :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 21, 2005 Author Share Posted January 21, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Possible qualifiers this weekend: Chelsea v Portsmouth (1.22) 1-0 2-0 3-0 2-1 3-1 = 1.74 1-0 2-0 3-0 4-0 5-0 = 1.88 Celtic v Motherwell (1.14) 1-0 2-0 3-0 2-1 3-1 = 1.83 1-0 2-0 3-0 4-0 5-0 = 1.74 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chala Posted January 22, 2005 Share Posted January 22, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Danny was thinking of the Chelsea game myself. Portsmouth have a few injuries and with only 2 teams managing to score at Stamford bridge tommorrow, I tempted to go for 1-0,2-0,3-0,4-0 which pays nearly evens. Or do you reckon it'll be alot safer to include 5-0 as well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chala Posted January 22, 2005 Share Posted January 22, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Oh yeah, forgot to say if anyone has problem's working out the staking danny uses, theres a really easy tool to use on oddschecker.com. On the homepage under power tools select dutching calculator. Once this opens select how much you want to stake, then enter the odds of all your selections and it will calculate what your guaranteed profit will be if any of your selections win and how much you need to put on each selection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 22, 2005 Author Share Posted January 22, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Chelsea v Portsmouth Chala I'll be doing 1-0 through to 5-0. Chelsea have won 4-0 3 teams this season and not scored 5 in a game yet....there is always a first time though! 5-0 is 20-1 :eek with Ladbrokes and is worth covering IMO... 1-0 23.52% @ 8.00 general 2-0 26.88% @ 7.00 Stanley 3-0 23.52% @ 8.00 general 4-0 17.11% @ 11.00 WH 5-0 8.97% @ 21.00 Lads 10pts staked - returns 18.82 Still thinking about the Celtic game and how to attack it.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 22, 2005 Author Share Posted January 22, 2005 Re: Correct Scores also ... Celtic v Motherwell 2-0 24.01% @ 7.2 3-0 21.09% @ 8.2 Any unquoted 54.90% @ 3.15 all Betair prices Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wintz Posted January 22, 2005 Share Posted January 22, 2005 Re: Correct Scores i done chelski, celtic and brechin to win 1-0, 2-0 3-0. Doubles and trebles. What happens when brechin is called off? is all my money returned for the trebles and all i have running is 1 double? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 22, 2005 Author Share Posted January 22, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Your trebles will turn into doubles. Hope Chelsea score stays the same for you... Nice one Wintz!!! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidcampbell Posted January 22, 2005 Share Posted January 22, 2005 Re: Correct Scores superb again danny :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 22, 2005 Author Share Posted January 22, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Chelsea 3 Portsmouth 0 Celtic 2 Motherwell 0 Thanks DC :clap The Chelsea game returned 18.82 = +8.82 points profit Coincedently the Celtic game returned the same amount after commission, another 8.82 points profit So.. Bets 8 Winners 5 Start Bank 100 points New Bank 116.6 points Profit 16.6 points Yield 20.75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wintz Posted January 22, 2005 Share Posted January 22, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Yes Danny - nice 1 mate. Pity about Brechin.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chala Posted January 22, 2005 Share Posted January 22, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Went with 1-0 - 4-0, myself danny. Was sweating abit when chelsea were 3-0 up so early, but it all came good. Ended up getting evens on chelsea to win at home! Just a tad better than the 1/4 on offer! What's great with chelsea and this type of bet also, is you can be pretty confident they won't often let in a goal, so you can just cover the winning scorelines to nil, rather than having to include a few where the other team gets a consilation goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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