Samba_SamPa Posted February 13, 2010 Share Posted February 13, 2010 I do like a simple system, and this fits the bill perfectly. This system will determine matches on which to back 'Both teams to score' The full exhaustive list of rules are as follows: The Home team must average OVER 1 goal per home game scored AND conceded The Away team must average OVER 1 goal per away game scored AND conceded Umm, that's all folks :cheers Betfred offer 4/5 for every English League game and SPL game so I will take those odds unless another firm offers better. Just paper trialling this so I am setting myself a bank as such - I will just track P/L and ROI to 1pt level stakes to see if it's profitable :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 13, 2010 Author Share Posted February 13, 2010 Re: Goals Galore There's 6 qualifying matches on Saturday Preston v Blackpool 4/5 Betfred Coventry v QPR 4/5 Betfred Carlisle v MK Dons 4/5 Betfred Dagenham v Bournemouth 4/5 Betfred Macclesfield v Accrington 4/5 Betfred Kilmarnock v St Johnstone 10/11 WillHill :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 13, 2010 Share Posted February 13, 2010 Re: Goals Galore The rules look logical to me. Good luck with your system! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 13, 2010 Share Posted February 13, 2010 Re: Goals Galore I do like a simple system, and this fits the bill perfectly. This system will determine matches on which to back 'Both teams to score' The full exhaustive list of rules are as follows: The Home team must average OVER 1 goal per home game scored AND conceded The Away team must average OVER 1 goal per away game scored AND conceded Umm, that's all folks :cheers Betfred offer 4/5 for every English League game and SPL game so I will take those odds unless another firm offers better. Just paper trialling this so I am setting myself a bank as such - I will just track P/L and ROI to 1pt level stakes to see if it's profitable :ok Good luck with this! Have you done any backtesting with this, or just diving in and seeing what happens? (because using the FD data, you could find out in an instant if this was profitable or not) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razaldo9 Posted February 13, 2010 Share Posted February 13, 2010 Re: Goals Galore I had a look at something like this the other day. How do you backtest it to get a P/L figure Lunatism? I backtested to get percentages of games where both teams score. % of games in which both teams score. 09/10 (so far) Prem 50% Champ 53% Lg 1 54% Lg 2 55% Conf 48% 08/09 Prem 46% Champ 52% Lg 1 55% Lg 2 52% Conf 50% 07/08 Prem 48% Champ 55% Lg 1 50% Lg 2 53% Conf 58% Average Prem 48% Champ 53.3% Lg 1 53% Lg 2 53.3% Conf 52% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 13, 2010 Share Posted February 13, 2010 Re: Goals Galore I had a look at something like this the other day. How do you backtest it to get a P/L figure Lunatism? well - you'll need the odds for all the games you backtested....BUT, if you don't have access to the odds, you could ascertain a very very crude guide as to how things run by assigning average odds to each match? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 13, 2010 Author Share Posted February 13, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Good luck with this! Have you done any backtesting with this, or just diving in and seeing what happens? (because using the FD data, you could find out in an instant if this was profitable or not) :ok Thought of it about 1:45am this morning, checked for today's qualifiers, and posted :lol I think it would be acceptable to assign odds of 1.80 to historical games - as Betfred offer that for every game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 14, 2010 Author Share Posted February 14, 2010 Re: Goals Galore There's 6 qualifying matches on Saturday Preston v Blackpool 4/5 Betfred Coventry v QPR 4/5 Betfred Carlisle v MK Dons 4/5 Betfred Dagenham v Bournemouth 4/5 Betfred Macclesfield v Accrington 4/5 Betfred Kilmarnock v St Johnstone 10/11 WillHill :hope On the bright side we're 100% in Scotland... Bets 6 Wins 1 SR 16.67% P/L -4.09 ROI -81.8% Monday's only English league game qualifies Bristol Rovers v Charlton 4/5 Betfred Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumyat Posted February 15, 2010 Share Posted February 15, 2010 Re: Goals Galore In the last 30000 or so matches in the three English Leagues below the Premier the average chance of both teams scoring in a match is about 52.2%. The Home team must average OVER 1 goal per home game scored AND conceded The Away team must average OVER 1 goal per away game scored AND conceded Does picking only these matches according to Samba's filter improve on that 52.2%? To overcome Fred's odds you need 55.5% just to break even. Say 5 seasons of data should be plenty to get a good estimate for how well the filter works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razaldo9 Posted February 15, 2010 Share Posted February 15, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Yeah but how would you backtest that? How do you know if Swansea had an average goals for and against of over 1 in 2006 for example? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumyat Posted February 15, 2010 Share Posted February 15, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted February 15, 2010 Share Posted February 15, 2010 Re: Goals Galore You make a cool Excel sheet, then you know ;) Edit: Dumyat beat me to it, with a much better reply... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 16, 2010 Author Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Monday's only English league game qualifies Bristol Rovers v Charlton 4/5 Betfred Not often I get 104th minute goals going my way... Bets 7 Wins 2 SR 28.57% P/L -3.29 ROI -47% ---------- Tuesday's qualifiers Stoke v Man City 10/11 BlueSq Blackpool v Middlesbrough 4/5 Betfred Peterborough v Ipswich 4/5 Betfred Scunthorpe v Barnsley 11/13 bwin Yeovil v Colchester 4/5 Betfred Morecambe v Burton 4/5 Betfred Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 16, 2010 Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Not often I get 104th minute goals going my way... Bets 7 Wins 2 SR 28.57% P/L -3.29 ROI -47% ---------- Tuesday's qualifiers Stoke v Man City 10/11 BlueSq Blackpool v Middlesbrough 4/5 Betfred Peterborough v Ipswich 4/5 Betfred Scunthorpe v Barnsley 11/13 bwin Yeovil v Colchester 4/5 Betfred Morecambe v Burton 4/5 Betfred well done, and i'm in possession of a sneaky feeling that advises me that today will be a good day for you ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjhrt Posted February 16, 2010 Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: Goals Galore I like the look of most of those apart from Stoke. Good luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razaldo9 Posted February 16, 2010 Share Posted February 16, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumyat Posted February 16, 2010 Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Yes time is the killer in working these things out. So far had a look at Eng Championship 2008 and 2009 season and not at all favourable. EC 2009 there were 45 candidates and 19 where both scored EC 2008 there were 108 candidates and 53 where both scored It is amazing how often something which seems a completely obvious filter either doesn't improve things at all or doesn't improve things to the point where you can beat the odds. And I suppose Fred has picked 4/5 for a reason! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 16, 2010 Author Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Tuesday's qualifiers Stoke v Man City 10/11 BlueSq Blackpool v Middlesbrough 4/5 Betfred Peterborough v Ipswich 4/5 Betfred Scunthorpe v Barnsley 11/13 bwin Yeovil v Colchester 4/5 Betfred Morecambe v Burton 4/5 Betfred Bets 13 Wins 6 SR 46.15% P/L -1.93 ROI -14.85% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 16, 2010 Author Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Wednesday's qualifiers Crystal Palace v Reading 1.91 (WillHill) St Johnstone v Hibernian 1.91 (WillHill) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 17, 2010 Author Share Posted February 17, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Wednesday's qualifiers Crystal Palace v Reading 1.91 (WillHill) St Johnstone v Hibernian 1.91 (WillHill) Bets 15 Wins 8 SR 53.33% P/L -0.11 ROI -0.01% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 18, 2010 Author Share Posted February 18, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Wasn't sure what to do with regards to Cup games, but seeing as it's a paper trial I can see no harm, but with 1 rule 1) In Domestic Cups, teams have to be in the same division. In European Cups, teams are going to be in their country's highest division, so they'll be trialled also. Which brings us on to: ----- Thursday's qualifiers Villareal v Wolfsburg 4/5 Betfred A Madrid v Galatasaray 4/5 Betfred (There were no qualifying Champions League games this midweek) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 18, 2010 Author Share Posted February 18, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Thursday's qualifiers Villareal v Wolfsburg 4/5 Betfred A Madrid v Galatasaray 4/5 Betfred Bets 17 Wins 10 SR 58.82% P/L +1.49 ROI +8.76% Well, seeing this profit was the furthest thing from my thoughts last weekend when we started with 1 from 6. But 9 from 11 since Monday and here we are :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 19, 2010 Author Share Posted February 19, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Friday's qualifier Bury v Shrewsbury 10/11 (Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted February 19, 2010 Share Posted February 19, 2010 Re: Goals Galore I've been working on a similar analysis and have developed a system which (back tested against the past 9 seasons) can select a game with a 55.91% success rate. Although this is an edge, it is such a small one it wouldn't even give a yield of 0.1% long term by betting on singles at 1.80. Betfred are notoriously stingy when it comes to correct score, or other goal markets. By combining games into accumulators (Goals Galore) you are throwing a whole different set of variables into the pot. I may continue to pursue my selections, but by looking at the odds on betfair as opposed to high street bookies. I've actually had 3 winning 5fold accumulators since Christmas - but am putting that more down to luck, rather than the way forward profit wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 19, 2010 Author Share Posted February 19, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Interesting to read all the input guys. I'm going to start looking at possible further filters, but the whole point was really to keep things simple. You don't perfect being as lazy as I am by making things complicated ;) Tonight's was a loser, which I expected really - but a system aint a system if you interfere. ----- Bets 18 Wins 10 SR 55.55% P/L +0.49 ROI +2.72% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 20, 2010 Author Share Posted February 20, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Have an idea for a 'confidence rating' - will see how that goes for a bit, see if it's a possibility for a profitable filter. I will put each confidence rating in parenthesis following the matches. ----- Weekend Qualifiers Blackpool v Reading (56.25) 1.80 (Betfred) Peterborough v Sheff Utd (56.25) 1.80 (Betfred) QPR v Doncaster (42.14) 1.91 (William Hill) Sheff Wed v Ipswich (51.67) 1.80 (Betfred) Bristol City v WBA (43.75) 1.80 (Various) Hartlepool v Huddersfield (25.95) 1.80 (Betfred) Accrington v Bradford (80.29) 1.80 (Betfred) Cheltenham v Morecambe (70.47) 1.80 (Betfred) Crewe v Northampton (48.21) 1.80 (Betfred) Motherwell v Hibs (27.08) 1.91 (William Hill) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted February 20, 2010 Share Posted February 20, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Interesting that only 2 of yours match with mine. I've not covered Scotland, but my 6 for this weekend are: Man City Cardiff Scunthorpe Aldershot Accrington Crewe Toying with a 6 way accumulator and 15 x 4 folds for these. Btw - not wanting to tread on your toes on this thread Samba - will see how it goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 22, 2010 Author Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Weekend Qualifiers Blackpool v Reading (56.25) 1.80 (Betfred) Peterborough v Sheff Utd (56.25) 1.80 (Betfred) QPR v Doncaster (42.14) 1.91 (William Hill) Sheff Wed v Ipswich (51.67) 1.80 (Betfred) Bristol City v WBA (43.75) 1.80 (Various) Hartlepool v Huddersfield (25.95) 1.80 (Betfred) Accrington v Bradford (80.29) 1.80 (Betfred) Cheltenham v Morecambe (70.47) 1.80 (Betfred) Crewe v Northampton (48.21) 1.80 (Betfred) Motherwell v Hibs (27.08) 1.91 (William Hill) Bets 27 Wins 13 SR 48.15% P/L -3.00 ROI +11.11% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 23, 2010 Author Share Posted February 23, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Forgot about these tonight, will look back and see which matches qualified, and stick them up in the morning with tomorrow's qualifiers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 25, 2010 Author Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Goals Galore Tuesday's Qualifiers Scunthorpe v Ipswich 1.80 Betfred Charlton v Brighton 1.80 Betfred Hartlepool v Carlisle 1.80 Betfred Tranmere v Huddersfield 1.80 Betfred Bury v Morecambe 1.80 Betfred Cheltenham v Torquay 1.80 Betfred Hereford v Northampton 1.80 Betfred Wednesday's Qualifiers Crewe v Chesterfield 1.80 Betfred Stoke v Man City 1.80 Betfred ----- Bets 36 Wins 18 SR 50.00% P/L -3.00 ROI -8.33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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