value in the outsider

[dannkez2407]

Morning all A lot of people always come on here and try to grasp the concept of value betting, this article on sports punter, in my opinion, cracks it in a nutshell http://www.sports-punter.com/index.php?p=pages/gaininganedge So it gave me an interesting idea, lets put the concept of not just 'backing the winner' to the test. The system for now will be paper trialled, it will involve looking for a clear outsider, i havent decided on the minimum odds, but i think anything over 7.0 would be a good start. Using this i will quantify the chances of that team winning using my probablities that are used on my other value thread on here, and if they represent value, they will be backed. The system will only include league matches, and they will be from all over the world. My aim is for a 15% yield over a minimum of 100 selections, so only matches that represent value of 15% of more will be selected. Ill post selections shortly.......

[dannkez2407]

Re: value in the outsider For Saturday Hamilton v Celtic - Hamilton win @ 9, value odds 5.26 representing value of 71% Bayern Munich v Mainz - Mainz win @ 17.5, value at 3.85, 455% just for now, ive found 19 other selections to go through for saturday so will post them later when i have time