Low grade handicap hurdles...

[jcosgrove]

I have come to realise that my most profitable bets come from low grade handicap hurdles (including novice/sellers) so I am dedicating a thread to my bets in these type of races. I will try and focus on one race a day and have done some testing of my skills before starting this thread. I am pretty busy so will possibly be posting up bets before full prices are available. The first bet is a horse I have had in my diary for a month. It was given a pretty poor ride under the care of Miss E.C. Sayer (who I presume is the trainers daughter) and she is now replaced by Ryan Mania, which is my first positive. I think this is a good up and coming jockey in the north and he takes off 3 lbs to boot. The horse was travelling beautifully in its last run at Catterick over a similar trip in December when the said jockey (Miss Sayer) managed to lose position on the top bend at a valuable time. The horse was still cruising in the straight and under a stronger ride would surely have won easily. The horse is allowed to race off the same mark here and although that was a seller I don't see much difference with the race it is entered in tomorrow. The winner of that Catterick race Amir Pasha came there in great form having won two weeks earlier. The second Oscar Trial was third at Market Rasen on Sunday. The third Mardood was beaten at Catterick on Friday but was sent off favourite. The fourth Mr Floppy won a chase last week at Folkestone and in its grade that race is very solid which gives more claims to my selection Samizdat. Of the other horses in the race Nightboat to Cairo comes from a yard I like and the step up in trip will definitely play to his strengths but 3 races in two weeks on very soft ground puts me off. Amjad showed a renewed lease of life early in the season but was beaten by Samizdat at Carlisle and ran out when well held by the selection at Catterick. He is now also 13 but could prove the most dangerous opposition. I'm your man will probably be short in the market and has won round here but all his best form is on better ground. Allanard probably needs a step up in trip based on his runs i've watched. Ballysimon is definitely capable of better but is another who does not look to be best suited from a drop in trip but fitness was maybe the reason for him fading at Kelso last time and James Ewart is another trainer I admire, however, Samizdat has shown this trip is well within his compass and to me he looks like he is in with a very good chance tomorrow. Recommended bet 1 : Samizdat 3:30 Sedgefield 2pts win 1pt place.

[jcosgrove]

Re: Low grade handicap hurdles... I will also add to this thread my horses to follow for the current jumps campaign : Prince Tam Trained by Lucinda Russell this horse as not been given a hard time in his two chase starts so far, Was kept out of the race on both starts but has always jumped nicely and looks like he will be one to watch in novice handicap chases in the next few months off I would imagine a fairly reasonable mark. I will update the next ones when I get some more time...:ok