Lay the Draw, with added safety net and exponential winnings

[jinjouk]

Hi, I am new here but have been learning a lot from past posts. I have spent the past few months trying to come up with systems that mostly failed, using lay the draw and other methods. Though I think this one has some potential and would like your thoughts, maybe you have tried it or maybe there's obvious flaws. Firstly, it is a lay the draw system. You will need a picking method, mines is mostly picking teams with 3.5 odds to lay the draw and also based on past games, stats that day etc. The second point is to have runs of 5 games. I'll try and explain better. Say we take a pot of 100 to start with, betting on a game with 3.5 odds and only ever betting 1/8th of the pot. That wins us a profit of £5. We then save 75% of the profit and put the rest on, with the original stake, game 2. (EDIT: I just noticed that it is only the first 2 games I save 75%, it's 65% for the others) I'll show a spreadsheet, hope the formatting works.

game	stake	profit	save	saved even if lost
1	£12.50	£5.00	£3.75	-£12.50
2	£13.75	£5.50	£4.13	-£8.75
3	£15.13	£6.05	£3.93	-£4.63
4	£17.24	£6.90	£4.48	-£0.69
5	£19.66	£7.86	£5.11	£3.79

Now here is you're safety. Remember we were saving 75% so the loss was minimised each game even though profit increased. After 5 games add the total profit to you're pot, here it would be 31.31, and start the cycle again but with 1/8 of the new pot. This means even if you lose on the 6th game you will have saved roughly half the profit from the last run. Also if you lose you need to start a new run (maybe best to move on a game anyway?) The final thing, don't have more than one game on in play at a time, this stops you minimise loss further. Pen and paper showed good results and using 30 pot to start with I have made a profit of £100 this last week or so. What do you think? Also if anything is unclear please ask. P.S I will be updating this thread with my selections over the next few weeks and summarise every 5 games.

[a1ehouse]

Re: Lay the Draw, with added safety net and exponential winnings :welcome Sounds good mate, good luck with it. I've had hit and miss with LtD based on power ratings to get selections. I'd have long winning runs followed by the odd losing one which wiped out my profits, so I like the idea of grouping your games and only betting to fixed liability. Will watch with interest ;).