Southwell 02/01/10

[Lars]

Two to write up here tonight, will have to post prices in the morning but I haven't a clue whether I'll be bothered to give a big write up, so will do it now when I definitely am! 12:55 Southwell Prohibition is a pick not without reservations but on the form, outclasses these. Ran incredibly poorly LTO at Wolverhampton, and found nothing when asked to 'go' by Jamie Spencer. Pulled too hard that day and was its first run after a long absence. Backed off the boards too so it must be doing something decent at home to gain that support. Will give it one more chance. It's maiden victory, where it won well over a mile, beating sorts such as the eventually disappointing Class is Class, and other decent horses such as Nom Dom, fairly comfortably. That was on heavy ground which is more like Southwell than Wolverhampton. Drop in trip will suit looking at LTO and if up for it, should be too classy for a poor field. Price on Betfair is around 2/1 and I think that'll be a steal, just gotta hope that holds out :hope 15:35 Open 7 furlong race to finish the card and this is reflected in the overnight exchanges. Favourite is currently 6.0 and justifiably so. My pick has a little bit to do, but absolutely loves it around here. Mocha Java is, with the jockey allowances included, 7lbs higher than it's last victory. That wasn't the greatest race in the world, with only a couple of winners coming out of it but it did show a lot of heart and it has won here before that as well. LTO fluffed it's lines at Wolverhampton but its run before that here, wasn't bad at all, finishing well over an inadequate 6f. He's 2lbs lower with the claiming jockey on this run today and back to it's CD trip. Been consistent at Southwell, and when it hasn't, there has usually been excuses. Good draw and expecting a big run. Currently around 10/1 on Betfair and this is a fair price, will hopefully snap up that sort of value in the morning EW.

[dannyfield]

Re: Southwell 02/01/10 hits only jude at 12.55 who has been placed in the top 2 in 7/8 races.11/2 ew clear ice 1.25 has a good record over southwell with a record 2211251.3/1 win 2 horses in the 3.05 with ponting who is 2/2 over C&D.15/2 ew and sherjawy only because he has a good distance record of 14311 but they were over the polytrack but will have a go ew at 10/1 :hope:hope