Leopardstown 29/12/09

[mowgli77]

Lexus Chase 1.25 Leopardstown This is quite a strong looking Grade 1 Chase and Joncol is likely to go off as favourite. The form of its last win is questionable due to its 2 main rivals falling and unseating rider but it’s hard not to be impressed with how it drew clear when asked to go win its race. The 2^nd to Tranquil Sea doesn’t look bad either considering that horses performance in the PaddyPower Gold Cup.

There will be plenty queueing up to take it on though and Ruby Walsh has again had to make a decision as to ride Cooldine or What A Friend. He got it right at Cheltenham when Cooldine made a mockery of a Grade 1 race, coasting home by 16 lengths and beating What A Friend out of sight. It was found to have an infection after its disappointing run at Punchestowns and makes its seasonal debut today. It won 1^st time out last year so goes well fresh but might need this run.

What A Friend was 2^nd to Denman in the Hennessy but if you take Denman out of that race it would have been a winner of an average Grade 3 handicap and hard to see it reversing form with Cooldine when dismissed so easily last year.

Notre Pere is a Grade 1 winner but did not beat a field of superstars and I’m not convinced it will win today and think it is overrated, going by its prominence in the betting.

Schindlers Hunt was 2^nd in that Grade 1 but is another I feel is good but not quite good enough at the top level. Voy Por Ustedes beat Schindlers Hunt at Aintree over 20f and although it has lost the pace to get 2m I don’t feel it has the stamina to get home in a truly run 3m race either and should stick to a trip of around 2m4f. It has class but made jumping errors last time out, which is unlike the horse and ran quite flat when beaten by Albertas Run.

The one I like at a big price and has been underrated is Aran Concerto. It was very classy over hurdles, winning 2 Grade 1 novice hurdles before finishing 5^th at Cheltenham to Massinis Maguire in 2007. It only raced once in 2008 due to injury, winning a chase race on soft ground. It ran at Fairyhouse in April 2009 and beat Barker in a Grade 1 chase over 20f. It has to prove it gets 3m and fell last time out after travelling well enough to suggest it might have been competitive at the business end of the race. Still too early to write this off and the 20-1 looks like an insult. Trainer and jockey in form and big race winners with Go Native on Boxing Day.

I am going to back Cooldine to win and Aran Concerto each way. All the talk has been about Kauto V Denman in the Gold Cup but Cooldine may just remind them that the Gold Cup is not just a two horse race if it wins and does it in style today. Suggested Bets: 5pts WIN Cooldine 11-2 SkyBet 2.5pts EW Aran Concerto 20-1 W. Hill Bets stand from 28/12/09 :ok

[mowgli77]

Re: Leopardstown 29/12/09 2.00 Leopardstown This should go the way of Solwhit if it was the lack of pace that caught it out last time but I am going to back one of my old favourites Sublimity to beat it. That ran a great race at a big price at Newcastle and Go Native has given that form a boost with another win recently. It travels well and usually digs in to race to the line but has only won once in its last 9 races, going back to 2007. It has class and experience and flat speed and is 5-1. Rated 4lb inferior to Solwhit but that is progressing and is only 5. A case of experience V potential and another young improver is Jumbo Rio. It is rated 19lb inferior to the favourite and only gets 3lb for being a 4 yr old but is improving, goes on several surfaces and has Grade 1 experience in Ireland and France. Lack of pace was to blame for Binoculars no show at Newcastle but that did not run to expectations again on Boxing Day and I'll be hoping the same happens with Solwhit. I don't rate Muirhead, always finds one or two too good and Won In The Dark was 2nd in this race last year to Sublimity and has been disappointing since. The fav is currently evens, that could be value if it wins by a distance but I feel the value is in taking Sublimity and Jumbo Rio to beat it. Suggested Bets: 4pts WIN Sublimity 5-1 Stan James 1pt WIN Jumbo Rio 9-1 BlueSquare