Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 As a newbie member, this is the first thread which I have created since i've joined this what seems a very enthusiastic group of punters, so I hope this system which I've literally just come up with works both consistently and profitably. By the way, at the time of writing it is 3am and I am very tired so I hope this all makes sense As you can see by the title, the system is used to assist us in deciding whether matches will end under or over 2.5 goals. This can be used for any matches, in any leagues around the world as long as bookmakers have the over/under market available. Like I've just mentioned, I have only just came up with it so I havent tested it over a reasonable period of time to see whether it is profitable over a whole season for example. Furthermore, I have currently only tested it on 1 weeks of domestic fixtures including; premier league, coca cola championship, league 1, 2, scottish premier, division 1, 2 & 3. I havent tested it on the Blue Square Premier ( Conference) as there were no matches taking part this week. Like I have said, this may go pear shaped so I am paper trailing this and am not betting any of my own money using this system, and am advising you to do the same. Right, now thats all out of the way I will get down to explaining what is a very simple system. Firstly, your probably wondering what the BB stands for? It stands for Betdevil and Bookmakers odds. For the people who are not familar to the site Betdevil.com, it's basically a football statistic site which aids punters like you and I to make an informed choice using historic data such as last 12 meetings and current data such as a teams home record for the current season. It can be used to see the probability of a team winning and the amount of goals being scored in that particular game. The system For newbies to Betdevil you need to click 'matches' on the homepage and click on what league you want to bet on. After doing this all of the matches for the chosen league will be displayed. To find the statistical analysis for each game you need to click on match which is on the far right side by each fixture. Click on whatever fixture your interested in and scroll down to the probability table which will show the percentage probability for home, draw and away result and under and over 2.5 goals. Of course we are only interested in the probability of over and under. The system works by seeing what price/odds are lower, under or over. Odds from various bookmakers can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the analysis page. We then look to see what betdevils probability percentage will be for unders and overs. If the percentage is 51% or over for over 2.5 for example and bookmakers see that outcome more likely thus pricing them lower then we will back them. If bookmakers price overs shorter than unders but betdevil have 49% or lower for overs we dont back them as the bookmakers and betdevil do not agree. Only when they agree we back them. If betdevils probability percentage is 50% we wont back a team as the outcome for unders/overs is as likely according to them. For example, the odds are priced 2.04 for under 2.5 and 1.86 for over 2.5 we know the bookmaker favours over 2.5 goals as the outcome, so we see if betdevils probability is 51% or higher. The probability is 63% so we back overs as the bookies and betdevil agree. This filters out matches where the bookmakers prediction does not agree with statistics, thus shortening the number of selections available and giving us more confident and educated selection. I've realised this is pretty long so I will post a reply with the results from each domestic league this week not including the conference :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Right, I do apologise for that long and agonizing read, but :hope it could be very helpful. From all of the games which were played last week the system, if you want to call it came up with no less than 37 fixtures. Of these 26 were correct outcomes and 11 were wrong. Here are the selections and results for each league. I wont publish the odds and over/under outcomes as it will take too long and im tired and want to :zzz Each match has a stake of £10 Premier league Bolton v Man City WON :clap Chelsea v Everton WON :clap Sunderland Portsmouth WON :clap Liverpool v Arsenal WON :clap Tottenham v Wolves LOST :@ Man Utd v Aston Villa LOST :@ £73.86 Return - £60 stake = £13.86 profit :nana Coca cola Championship Coventry v Peterbrough WON :clap Preston v Plymouth WON :clap Sheffield United v Crystal Palace WON :clap Swansea v Nottingham Forest WON :clap Reading v Scunthorpe LOST :@ Watford v Derby LOST :@ Return £72.90 - £60 = £12.90 profit :nana Coca Cola League one Brentford v Leeds Utd WON:clap Huddlesfield v Gillingham WON:clap Leyton Orient v Mk Dons WON:clap Oldham v Exeter WON:clap Southampton v Tranmere WON :clap All five qualifying bets won! Return £93.48 - £50 = £43.48 Coca Cola league 2 Barnet v Crewe WON :clap Dagenham Redbridge v Bury WON:clap Notts County v Accrington Stanley WON:clap Shrewsbury v Grimsby WON:clap Bradford v Rotherham LOST :@ Burton v Aldershot LOST :@ Chesterfield v Cheltenham LOST :@ Return £75.78 - £70 = £5.78 :nana Scottish Premier Motherwell v Celtic WON :clap Hearts v Dundee WON:clap Kilmarnock v Hibernian WON:clap Rangers v St Johnstone WON:clap Aberdeen v Hamilton LOST :@ Return £69.90- £50 = £19.90 profit :nana Scottish Division 1 Only 1 qualifying bet: Dundee v Ayr LOST :@ Return £0 - £10 stake = £10 loss :spank Division 2 Abroath v Stirling WON :clap Alloa v Brechin LOST:@ Peterhead v Cowdenbeath LOST :@ Return £19.10- £ 30 stake = £10.90 LOSS :spank Division 3 Livingston v Forfar WON :clap Montrose v Annan WON :clap Stranraer v Queens park WON :clap Return £53.20 - £30 stake = £22.20 profit :nana Overall, £370 was staked on the system with £75.02 profit, returning £445.02. (20.27% yield) Please leave your comments and questions below this post. I am usually very busy but will try to respond to any questions as soon as possible. I will also post qualifying matches when the system comes up with when there are many games on. I may try this on European leagues as well. Remember this is a paper trial, I am not currently playing with real money but if you like to have a punt on the under and over market why not?:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System As with most systems there are always ways to make the system stronger by finding ways to filter out selections which may lose and effect profit and yield. Three ways which could be used to filter some selections are: 1. Only select bets which have 0.2 price between the under and over price. For example, 1.94 for under 2.5 and 2.04 for over 2.5. Unders will not qualify as there is only 0.1 between them suggesting the game could be close in terms of it being over or under 2. Only selecting teams which have at least 60% probability on the betdevil statistical analysis. 3. Check team news. Can be very time consuming but if a key player such as a playmaker or top striker is injured, less chances and goals are mostly to happen. This will work in advantage of under 2.5 however it will also identify weaknesses with over 2.5 selections therefore helping you avoid the selection Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System excellent write up. Very similar to my system im trialling so will be keen to see how your differences compare against mine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Cheers Dan, much appreciated mate and good luck with your system. I will keep an eye on it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Monday Night Football (14/12/2009) Right, the first selection which will put the BB system to the test is the Coca Cola Championship match between West Brom and QPR. According to Betdevil the game should finish with over 2.5 goals as they rate this outcome at 77% with unders at a mere 23%. Bookmakers seem to agree as they price overs at 1.73 with unders priced at 2.22. The statistics also look good for this outcome too. The last 3 meetings between these two teams at the Hawthorns have finished over 2.5 with a 5-1 win for the Baggies in 2007, a 3-3 draw in 2006 and a 2-1 home win back in 2000. Furthermore, the number of goals average for the most recent games involving both these teams is 3.67(44 goals in 12 games), the season average being 3.05 (122 goals in 40 games). West Brom are a very offensive team and boast the best scoring record in the Championship this season, with 41 goals netted in 20 games. They have also scored in 5 of their last 6 matches, failing to score in their last home game against promotion rivals Cardiff City. QPR, who have lost their last two matches have also conceded eight goals in the process. Rangers have also not kept a clean sheet in any of their last NINE matches - the longest current such run in the Championship. All of the stats point to there being over 3 goals, and the first win for the BB system. There will be losing selections but I really will be surprised if this match is one of them. Selection: West Brom v QPR (over 2.5 goals)@ 1.73- Stake £10 Returns £17.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System unders or overs mate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System I'm assuming overs going by the system. All the best with system mate, will be following with interest! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System I'm assuming overs going by the system. All the best with system mate, will be following with interest! I've edited the post now. The Selection is over 2.5 goals:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staines Passive Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Interesting system, will be watching with interest - the betdevil website seems terrible to me though!! Goodluck for future picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Selection: West Brom v QPR (over 2.5 goals)@ 1.73- Stake £10 Returns £17.30 Certainly an interesting one and decent odds considering for both teams, 4 out of their last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Interesting system, will be watching with interest - the betdevil website seems terrible to me though!! Goodluck for future picks Well, I've used betdevil for about a year now and of course there are always going to be games which have an unexpected amount of goals in, but I wouldn't say it's that bad. The good thing about this system is that we are not solely relying on Betdevil; selections are only chosen when the bookies outcome prediction (shorter price of under or over) agrees with betdevil. Selections can also be filtered in a number of ways as I have pointed out at the top of the thread). I would say in my opinion that betdevil can base their probability too much on head to head stats. Although head to head stats are relevent, I believe the last 12 meetings is too excessive when 5 or 6 meetings is probably ideal as the team and squad wouldn't have changed too much. Can you recommend any other football statistic source which you would regard as being more reliable? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Well I hope tonight's game kicks on soon - half hour gone and not a goal in sight :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staines Passive Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Its not so much the stats they come up with perhaps, I would only ever use my own calculations to decide my bets - but its the layout of the website etc I don't like (bit of a girly comment maybe!) I didnt like navagating around it etc - will have another look at it tomorrow. Please dont see this as my hijacking your post or bitching etc please - following with interest on any over/unders system here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Its not so much the stats they come up with perhaps' date=' I would only ever use my own calculations to decide my bets - but its the layout of the website etc I don't like (bit of a girly comment maybe!) I didnt like navagating around it etc - will have another look at it tomorrow. Please dont see this as my hijacking your post or bitching etc please - following with interest on any over/unders system here![/quote'] I joined this site to share ideas and opinions. I'm not here for bitching etc. I'm happy for you to come up with your own calculations and would be welcome to any selections which you want to share Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Well its half time and is currently scoreless, not the scoreline I thought I would hear. If anyone follows the championship closely you would know that west brom usually score and go ahead at half time. I'm listening to the commentary and it's been described as an 'uninspiring game'. There have been a couple of chances but they havent been converted. Hoping an early goal will be scored in the 2nd half for things to liven up:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Well I hope tonight's game kicks on soon - half hour gone and not a goal in sight :( I know Ian, been listening to live commentary and it has been described as uninspiring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System About time 1-0 QPR, lets hope West Brom will fight back:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System West Brom just hit the cross bar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Yes 2-0 QPR. Game on. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: BB Under/over System Yessssssssssssssssssssss!!!!!!!!! 2-1 QPR Bet Landed!!!!!!!! :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Yessssssssssssssssssssss!!!!!!!!! 2-1 Bet Landed!!!!!!!! :nana :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy I'm so pleased that came in because I know some people are going to put money on my selections even though this is the very first one. It wouldn't of looked good on me if the game finished unders. Don't know whether your listening to the game but It's a cracker, nothing like the first half. Could of been six goals easily in this 2nd half. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Deleted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System I'm so pleased that came in because I know some people are going to put money on my selections even though this is the very first one. It wouldn't of looked good on me if the game finished unders. Don't know whether your listening to the game but It's a cracker' date=' nothing like the first half. Could of been six goals easily in this 2nd half. :loon[/quote'] Been watching it... brilliant 2nd half Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Last few seconds of the game Simon Cox scores a much needed equaliser! 2-2. FT :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Been watching it... brilliant 2nd half I didn't know it was being televised, gutted I missed that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 15, 2009 Author Share Posted December 15, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Tuesday Night Selections After a nervy first half, the very first game of the BB system between West Brom & QPR was successful with the teams sharing four goals. On with tonight and I'm very dubious as I havent been able to filter any selections out of the premier league games as the probability of each game finishing unders or overs agree with the bookies odds, if you understand what I mean. Anyway basically it means, it's going to be quite a profitable night or its going to be an absolute disaster. I suspect it will the latter but for the purposes of testing the system we will find out. Remember I am paper trailing this and am not suggesting you should bet on any of my selections. Tonights Fixtures Sunderland v Aston Villa (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.85 £10 Stake Returns £18.50 Birmingham v Blackburn (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.71 £10 Stake Returns £17.10 Bolton v West Ham (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.94 £10 Stake Returns £19.40 Man Utd v Wolves (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.63 £10 Stake Returns £16.30 Scottish Premier League Dundee Utd v Rangers (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.94 £10 Stake Returns £19.40 Scottish Division 1 No qualifying selections Scottish Division 2 Stirling Albion v Dumbarton (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.79 £10 Stake £10 Returns £17.90 Brechin v Peterhead (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.87 £10 Stake Returns £18.70 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted December 15, 2009 Share Posted December 15, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System 5 out of 7... Result eh :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 15, 2009 Author Share Posted December 15, 2009 Re: Bb Under/over System Tuesday Night Football Results Sunderland v Aston Villa (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.85 Stake £10 Returns £18.50- FT 0-2 :clap Birmingham v Blackburn (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.71 Stake £10 Returns £17.10- FT 2-1 :@ Bolton v West Ham (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.94 Stake £10 Returns £19.40- FT 3-1 :clap Man Utd v Wolves (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.63 Stake £10 Returns £16.30- FT 3-0:clap Dundee Utd v Rangers (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.94 Stake £10 Returns £19.40- FT 0-3 :clap Stirling Albion v Dumbarton (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.79 £10 Stake Returns £17.90 FT 2-2 :clap Brechin v Peterhead (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.87 £10 Stake Returns £18.70 FT 3-0 :@ SEVEN SELECTIONS: 5 CORRECT, 2 WRONG Return = £91.50 - £70 Stakes (7 x £10) = £21.50 Profit :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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