Ideas/Suggestions for BIR system

[wiw4]

Well I have been trialling something over the last week or so and have been having a little bit of success, but i think it could be doing better, but i need some people who are a bit more clever than myself to help me out :ok. Wont bore you all with nitty gritty, basically I was watching a 20-20 cricket match during the summer, and noticed the predicted runs total. Which was obviously the runs per over multiplied by the no of wickets. Naturally enough run rates can jump very high and fall very low depending on the type of match, weather, motivation of the team, etc. so I thought better than to try see if I could get one over the bookmaker here. After mulling it over and over, i came to the conclusion that the overs in cricket act almost as a clock when compared with other sports, in so far as runs-per-over can act like points/goals-per-minute. Now with that thought, I went to try and apply it to football/rugby etc., although I hit a big stumbling block in football; in that a match can end 0-0, and so my predictions for goals a minute were looking a non-starter (although I have developed something on this which I may also need some further input down the line.) Rugby works ok, however the scoring system means it not as accurate as could be. Now last week i discovered NBA basketball, and the scoring system suits it perfect. So what I do is, I wait for the 1st quarter to be over so i can get a guide, also because some can be very high or low scoring. Im actually trying an example as im typing this: Memphis Grizzlies v Miami Heat:

Current Score	Point in Match	Expected	Bookmaker Line
37 - 25	End 1Q	248	210
40 - 26	10:41 left 2Q	242	209
46 - 29	8:55 left 2Q	239	209.5
50 - 40	5:50 left 2Q	238	213
58 - 45	2:30 left 2Q	222	210
62 - 49	End 2Q	222	210.5

My expected total is merely (points scored/minutes played)* Total minutes of match. Or at this current point (111/24)*48 = 222. Which is merely just double the Half-time. Of course i am updating my clock and the points as the match goes along, so with more time the more accurate I will get, but also the opportunites to bet wont be. To an extent I am just betting where my expected total has a 10 point cushion. e.g. if im expecting 220 and the bookmaker is offering over/under 209, i'll back the over, or if im expecting 198 and the bookmaker is offering over/under 208 il back the under. Now the whole point of my thread is to ask, how would you improve the accuracy of the expected points total? and secondly how could I deduce value in these bets? Update:

Current Score	Point in Match	Expected	Bookmaker Line
69 - 55	6:38 left 3Q	209	206

I have backed the under 206.0

[wiw4]

Re: Ideas/Suggestions for BIR system

	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	37	25	31	25	118
MIA	25	24	18	23	90

Total 208. It appears I should have backed the over considering i was expecting 209 and o/u 206.0 was on offer *slaps own head smiley*