Wolverhampton - Dec 11th (Evening)

[mowgli77]

Wolverhampton 9.20 A cracking class 2 race to finish Friday nights racing and a few look to have a chance in what could be quite an open and competitive contest. The pace looks likely to come from Laterly and Alpen Glen and while that may suit their style of running a decent pace should also suit some of the other runners too. Laterly will be ridden by Daryll Holland, he took the ride last time for the horses all weather debut over course and distance and just ran out of stamina at the line but was not beaten far into 3rd, may need to be ridden with a bit more restraint to see out the trip but should be thereabouts again off a mark 2lb higher. Alpen Glen looked fantastic in its first 2 races, winning a maiden race over 12f by 6 lengths and following up with a class 3 handicap win. It has been well beaten in its last 4 races, all over 10f so the step back up in trip might see some improvement and the horse is only 3 yr old. The horse is out of Halling and Johnstone often does well on the all weather and finds improvement out of his horses so can't be written off completely despite the poor form of the horse. Nanton is fancied to go well and has winning form from 1m to 1m6f but no wins over this trip of 1m4f but it does have 2 wins and 2 places at this track. Its last all weather win was November 2008 off a rating of 83, today it runs off 97. It won a class 2 turf handicap in September at Doncaster over 15f from a rating of 98 and has an OR on the flat of 107. Dance The Star was 2nd last time out over course and distance and was just in front of Laterly but was thought to be unlucky as it was hampered when delivering its challenge. In its other race at this track it was 3rd of 7 over 2f further. It raced off 86 last time out and goes off 89 today and has the same 3lb claimer on board as last time out. Should get a nice lead from Laterly and Alpen Glen and could go a place better this time. Couer De Lionne seems to go very well for Steve Drowne, he has been on board 9 times and has 3 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds. 10 other jockeya have ridden the horse and only Hayley Turner has been able to win on it apart from Drowne. It has 2 wins over 1m3f and 2 wins over 1m4f but has never raced here, although it has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 runs at Kempton. Steve Drowne often tracks the leaders on this horse, sitting just off the pace and those tactics could be ideal for this race, it has finished 2nd and 3rd on its last 2 runs at Lingfield and Kempton. Its last winning all weather mark was 92 at Kempton, goes off 87 here but no course experience. Sgt Schultz has 7 all weather wins but 6 were at Lingfield and 1 was at Great Leighs. It has 2 places from 5 races at Wolverhampton but was 7th on its last run here, beaten 16 lengths in a similar race over this distance. Its last win was March 09 at Lingfield off 94 and goes off 93 today but at a course it does not seem as suited to. Keniry gets on well with the horse and definitely gets the trip, can't be totally discounted. Mister New York races off 82 and last won off 76. It was 9th off this 82 rating last time out at Kempton over 10f but had won off 76 over 12f at Lingfield. It has 2 course wins but they were over 6f and 7f in 2008. The last time it raced here it was 4th off 84 but in a 7f race. It has 5 all weather wins but all at other tracks, the 3 others being at Lingfield aswell as the 2 here. Hard to know what to expect when it has gone from 6f-1m races up to 1m4f and 1m2f in its last 4 races. Dirar raced mainly in Ireland and then won a few handicap hurdles over here. It has all weather form from Dundalk, 1 win and 2 seconds from 5 races but no all weather form over here. It took part in a class 2 handicap over 18f at Newmarket and was well beaten and probably seen to better effect back over hurdles again. Ladies Best is 0 wins from 8 races over 1m4f and was unplaced over an extra 17yds. It won a class 2 handicap at Pontefract but that was over 10f. It ran in a hurdles race recently and was beaten 64 lengths. It has raced on the all weather once and was unplaced and was 11th of 23 in a class 2 race over 12f on its last flat run off a rating of 90 and is only 2lb lower for this all weather race off 88. I don't know what the prices will be on the day but I would have the betting forecast from favourite to outsider something like this: Coueur De Lionne, Laterly, Dance The Star, Alpen Glen, Nanton, Sgt Schultz, Mister New York, Dirar, Ladies Best . I am thinking about backing Coueur De Lionne depending on price, ideally wanting something over 3-1 but will see if any other prices seem way out first before making a bet.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Wolverhampton - Dec 11th (Evening) Fantastic write up Mowgli, haven't looked at the race yet but judging from your write up it seems like a very tight race and could be an interesting market.