AFL Rd. 3.

[Guest TazaD]

A lot of big fav's this week, and rightly so. It's not the best betting week to be taking on individual teams IMO, but looks a good spot to take advantage of the teams that simply should win the game. Brisbane v. Collingwood. Brisbane to win @ 1.22 is a great price. Collingwood have not won in their last 6 trips to Brisbane, dating back to 1996. Brisbane near unbeatable at home, and have won 10 of last 12 meetings. Kangaroos v. Carlton. Kangaroos are a tremendous price @ 1.37! (They are the team mostlikely to cover their point spread IMO.). Carlton had a good win last week, but only v. a terrible Geelong team. Kanga's have had 2 solid wins and should be far too strong. Sydney v. Geelong. Geelong are the worst team in the AFL currently. Made even worse by having 5-6 of their best players out. Sydney have won 10 of last 12 @ home, inc. a 37 point win v. Geelong last season. Port Adelaide v. Hawthorn. Port have won 17 of the last 20 @ home. Hawthon have lost 9 of 11 @ Adelaide. Hawthorn are not a bad side, but Port too strong at home. Fremantle v. Adelaide. Fremantle have won 16 of last 20 at home. Adelaide have won only 4 of 15 in Perth. Adelaide have some big problems on the injury front that they are trying to cover. Fremantle will be far too good in this game and 1.30 is a fantastic price. (Also likely to cover the -24.5 point spread.) A multi of these 5 teams pays ~3.12, and that is a very good price IMO. Will add any other plays if I see any over the weekend.