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Goal Rating System


Djordje

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Goal Rating System is statistical football betting system based on simple fact that teams who scored more goals and conceded fewer in last several games have better chances of winning their next game. Match rating is calculated on last 6 league games as following: * Home team rating = Home team goals scored - Home team goals conceded * Away team rating = Away team goals scored - Away team goals conceded * Match rating = Home team rating - Away team rating With enough amount of historical data, Match rating calculated like this is used for determining fair odds (or fair probabilities) for home win, draw and away win. If the Match rating between two sides is equal to 0, it means we have match between two equal sides, and probability for a home win by this model is 46.5%.” I've been using this system for a while (around 8.50% yield on more than 200 bets during year 2009), but this thread will be different take with different rules: * English leagues only * Fixed odds - Back or Lay * Stakes on 1-10 scale using Kelly criteria * Match ratings in range (-1, +1) This filtering will throw some strange bets probably, but the aim is to see what happens in games between equally matched sides according to this system. This is paper trial only.

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Re: Goal Rating System Numbers in brackets are Match ratings described above 11/14/2009 English League One Yeovil (-1) Southend 44.91% 30.14% 24.95% Back Yeovil @2.50 skybet, stake 8/10 English League Two Rochdale (1) Chesterfield 48.03% 29.56% 22.41% Back Draw @3.50 skybet, stake 1/10 Shrewsbury (0) Torquay 46.47% 29.88% 23.65% Lay Shrewsbury @2.00 betfair, stake 7/10 Blue Square Premier Wrexham (1) Hayes 48.03% 29.56% 22.41% Lay Wrexham @1.75 betfair, stake 10/10

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