UEFA Coefficients - are they rubbish

[Vilamoura04]

This is JUST FOR FUN - A PAPER TRIAL just to see what happens - I have no idea if this will make a profit or a loss. When the UEFA team rankings come out they are alwaya met with much mirth - everyone knows they are rubbish right? Im sure others have done this before but I wonder if they might not actually be better than we think. Looking back over the previous round of champions league and europa cup matches the uefa club coefficients actually made a pretty good stab at predicting results. Of course, no one needs coefficients to know that Barcelona should beat Rubin Kazan (OK - bad example :lol) but the club coefficients did for example predict Milans win at Madrid. The way I see it is that the coefficients have three significant drawbacks: 1. They dont take account of home/away form. Some teams are a completely different animal at home. 2. They dont take account of circumstance. For example Chelsea will have a strong positive rating tonight v Atletico but with 9 points are all but home and hosed in the group. 3. The ratings are calculated at the beginning of the season, based on data up to end of last season. Since this date, something significant might have happened to the team that the rating does not account for eg team has financial problems and sells all players. 4. They dont take account of draws. These risks can be mitigated, but only to a limited extent. So it is clear that a system based on these coefficients is fraught with dangers and therefore strongly advise anyone not to follow these selections with real money. This is an intellectual exercise to see just how useless the coefficients are. The premise is dead easy, the club coefficients are on the UEFA website and provide a numerical rating for each team in european competition this season. For any one fixture: 1. Subtract rating for team A from rating for team B. 2. If answer is positive back the home win, if negative back the away win. 3. If rating is less than 10, teams are too closely matched, so no bet. 4. No bet for any teams that dont need to win due to position in group etc. So lets see how well it fares this week.

Tuesday, 3 November 2009
Uefa Champions League	Coeff Home	Coeff Away	Total	Prediction	Comments
AC Milan v Real Madrid, Gp C, 19:45	90		72	18	H
Apoel Nicosia v FC Porto, Gp D, 19:45		23	65		-42	A
Atletico Madrid v Chelsea, Gp D, 19:45	45		107	-62	A	No bet - Chelsea 9 poiints in group
Bayern Munich v Bordeaux, Gp A, 19:45		88	48		40	H
Besiktas v Wolfsburg, Gp B, 19:45	31		24	7	H	No bet - rating
Maccabi Haifa v Juventus, Gp A, 19:45		20	51		-31	A
Man Utd v CSKA Moscow, Gp B, 19:45	108		52	56	H	No bet - Man U 9 pts in group
Marseille v FC Zurich, Gp C, 19:45		50	20		30	H
Wednesday, 4 November 2009
Uefa Champions League
Arsenal v AZ Alkmaar, Gp H, 19:45	100		46	54	H
Dynamo Kiev v Inter Milan, Gp F, 19:45		42	75		-33	A
Fiorentina v Debrecen, Gp E, 19:45	49		5	44	H
Lyon v Liverpool, Gp E, 19:45		80	98		-18	A
Rubin Kazan v Barcelona, Gp F, 17:30	15		115	-100	A
Sevilla v VfB Stuttgart, Gp G, 19:45		98	39		59	H	No bet - Sevilla 9 pts in group
Standard Liege v Olympiakos, Gp H, 19:45	20		46	-26	A
Unirea Urziceni v Rangers, Gp G, 19:45		16	55		-39	A

I willl add odds in later

[Vilamoura04]

Re: UEFA Coefficients - are they rubbish So the picks (1 point on each and best prices taken from the Punters Lounge thread Tuesday Milan @ 2.78 Porto @ 1.72 Bayern @ 1.85 Juventus @ 1.6 Marseille @ 1.29 Wednesday Arsenal @ 1.21 Inter @ 2.28 Fiorentina @ 1.2 Liverpool @ 3.15 Barcelona @ 1.5 Olympiakos @ 3.5 Rangers :eek @ 4