Super 12 - Weekend 7th May

[Guest Citizen Kane]

Round 12 Preview Hurricanes 4.00 Crusaders 1.22 Margin 11.5 Crusaders currently second wanting to remain in the top two for a home semifinal, Hurricanes coming off the back of a very poor season and nothing to play for. No brainer really one would think, easy Crusaders win as reflected in the odds posted. However I can see a potential upset here. As mentioned previously the Hurricanes are a flair team and when it comes off can be devastating. In this game with the pressure off the passes may stick and the flash moves pay off. I do see some value in the HTH @ 4.00 but will be taking the +11.5 point start @ 1.87 as the Crusaders are a good side and may be just good enough to stay close or win this even if the Hurricanes get everything working right. Rest of round odds: Chiefs 2.50 Brumbies 1.50 Margin 5.5 Blues 1.30 Highlanders 3.35 Margin 8.5 Reds 2.25 Waratahs 1.60 Margin 3.5 Bulls 1.30 Cats 3.35 Margin 9.5 Sharks 2.05 Stormers 1.70 Margin 2.5 Will try and post remainder of thoughts on these matches later as the Hurricanes v Crusaders match is kicking off in 10 minutes. Cheers CK

[Guest Citizen Kane]

Saturdays Games Hurricanes 37-20 :cheers Saturdays Games Chiefs 2.50 Brumbies 1.50 Margin 5.5 Fellow PL members will know I follow the Chiefs and have had a pretty good record predicting their results this year. Even as a supporter I feel they have over-achieved and will start to be found out, if not this week then definitely in the semis if they qualify. The Brumbies are a class side and if they lose will jeopardise their chances of a home semi/final. Hard to take an away team @ 1.50 in this competition so will not be betting on this match. After all this “go the Chiefsâ€. Blues 1.30 Highlanders 3.35 Margin 8.5 Big effort by the Highlanders last week to come back from 7-28 with 14 men to beat the Waratahs 29-28. Perversely I feel that the Highlanders wouldn’t have won with 15 men (!!!) as feel the Waratahs eased off mentally turned down shots at goal to try for the 4th try bonus point which together with a backs to the wall attitude from the Highlanders cost them dearly. Psychology pays a big part in Super 12 and the Highlanders will struggle to match the same intensity against the Blues IMO tomorrow. This added to the Blues being unlikely to now take the Highlanders lightly points to a Blues victory IMO. Couldn’t back any side @ 1.30 but will be taking the –8.5 start @ 1.87. Reds 2.25 Waratahs 1.60 Margin 3.5 No love lost between these two sides. The Waratahs have never beaten the Reds in Super 12 (8 games). Not really one for history when betting but would expect this to continue based on the Reds impressive recent form and the difficulty for the Waratahs to pick themselves up after last weeks demoralising loss. Waratahs need a good victory to have any chance of making the semis but even with the Reds out of contention they will be “up†for this game. My only reservation with the Reds is the travel home from South Africa and for this reason am not tempted by the 2.25. Cheers CK