Can I make profit on this system??

[Booksie]

Evening peeps. I do alot of football betting and mainly singles/doubles and recently i have been thinkin if there is a way of making profit in the longer run of fixed odds football betting, i know many people think like this too. Normally I place £5/£10 singles & doubles. Also im fed up of when doing accum's 1/2 teams let me down. I rustled up an idea and it goes as follows... Each bet would be £6.00 Staked Pick 5 football teams of odds at 11/10 ish or more and place singles like this. Just as an example ( For this all the teams odds are 11/10) Lyon 11/10 - £1 Win Single AC Milan 11/10 - £1 Win Single Villarreal 11/10 - £1 Win Single Liverpool 11/10 - £1 Win Single Werder Bremen 11/10 £1 Win Single Also 1 x £1.00 5 fold accumalator... £6.00 staked as ive said If all teams win then you stand to get £40.83 for the accum and £2.10 each for the singles so total winnings £51.33 So big profit if all come in and i was looking at you make a very small 30pence profit if only 3 comes in and any more is a bonus. Obviously odds arnt 11/10 each time but 5/4 is the minimum odd used i think Is this likely to work in the long run?? Your thoughts would be appreciated Many Thanks Dan - Booksie :ok Ive also posted this is Systems & Strategys i dont know which one it should be in but want as much response from people as poss! ;)

[madnesstiger]

Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Hi Booksie. It's a little late here, but will try to explain my opinion as clear as poss! Ok, so you got 5 picks, all with theoretical (decimal) odds of 2.10 (assuming there's no commission etc). Here's a few figures which may, or may not, help!

• Mathematically, each selection has a (1/2.1) = 47.6% chance of winning.
• From 5 picks, on average, you can expect to win 2 selections, which will return just £4.20 from a total stake of £6.00. Thus, a £1.80 loss.
• Sometimes you will get 3 winners, which will, like you said, give a 30p profit.
• A 'full house' of 5 winners will return around £51.33 (including all 5 singles and accumulator).
• The maths suggest that the chance of winning all 5 selections is just 2.4%, or 1 time in 41 attempts. [ (1/2.10)^5 = 0.024485 ]

Unless you have a system in place which suggests you have an advantage over the bookies (or the people offering the odds), or if you are extremely lucky, you will not make a good profit in the long run. I believe most fellow punters on PL will agree that the ingredients of 'Discipline' and 'Money Management' go a long, long way in sports betting. But, the most important ingredient is finding real value in your selections. To make your 'system' create profit, you will need to find a consistent strike rate of at least 60% (3/5 winners), or 80% (4/5 winners). Bear in mind that a 60% strike-rate means finding over 12% 'value' in all of your selections. If I could find value like that consistently, then I'd be a very rich man by now! My advice would be to play very safe with this strategy, and only use it for a bit of fun. Sorry if I've put a dampener on things, but just thought I'd give my honest thoughts, like you asked, and maybe given you something to ponder. You never know though, you may prove to be lucky and win a 5/5 from the start! Good Luck! :) MT