AFL Rd. 11

[Guest TazaD]

Definately a tight week, imo. Only one game I really like: Melbourne +19.5 Actually think the Dees can win this one SU, but will take the points. If we ignore the Brisbane game (when the Lions were extremely undermanned), Freo have won only 4 of their last 13 @ home by more than 20 points. The games they did win by more they were HUGE fav's: They beat Richmond by 23 points as 1.14 favs (Rich 4.75) They beat Bulldogs by 56 points as 1.13 favs (Dogs 5.00) They beat Carlton by 47 points as 1.13 favs (Carl 5.25) They beat Geelong by 26 points as 1.16 favs (Gee 4.50) [And were flattered by the score] Melbourne are no strangers to winning in Perth...Since 2000 they have won 3 of 6 games, losing 2 by only 7 & 5 points. A loss only to their 'bogey' ground @ Geelong, and a loss last week @ Brisbane are certainly no disgraces. With Thompson and Green back this week, I really like Melbourne to get very close if not win this game....esp. with the chance for showers...Freo are terrible in the wet.

[Guest TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 11 The more I look at tonights game, the more I'm thinking Collingwood thumping. The Collingwood stats are a bit misleading, given all the injuries they have had...the only thing that is worrying me is that the Eagles were so close to Essendon in Rd. 3. Collingwood have won 6 of their last 9 games at the Dome by more than 24 points. But here's the kicker....Since the start of the 2001 season (13 games) the lowest score West Coast have have conceded is 103!!!..@ 132.6!! 3 games there this season and they have allowed a whopping 147.6 ppg!!! In absolute stark contrast, Collingwood have allowed 100+ only ONCE in their last 9 games indoors!! (To St. Kilda in Rd 8!) The Eagles flew all 3 emergencies over, and Sampi is not 100%. Will be interesting to see any late changes. Just think Collingwood are starting to play some good football, and should be too good.