Newmarket - 16th Oct 2009

[mowgli77]

Enticement/Splashdown 3.45 Newmarket Enticement won both its races as a 2 yr old and looked one to follow at 3 but it has so far failed to impress. It ran in the Musidora at York against Sariska and High Heeled but while I was there I had backed it but then commented that it did not go to post very well and looked like it would need softer ground, it was 3rd to Sariska by 7 1/4 lengths but on ground that was way too firm. It ran again in June at Saint Cloud but over 12f and was last of 8 to suggest there may be something amiss with the horse rather than just ground as it ran on soft that day. It has not been seen since and reappears today after 110 days off the track but I have been eagerly awaiting its comeback and hoping to see it on good or gd-sft ground and back over 10f. Ryan Moore has decided to ride Leocorno instead of this one but I feel it has ability and conditions today could see the horse perform to that ability and make a mockery of its odds of 16-1. Its last 2 races were Gp3 and Gp2 races and this is a listed contest. Trained by Stoute and owned by the Queen and is ridden by Jimmy Fortune, who happens to have ridden the winner of this race in 2001 and 2002. Splashdown is fairly consistent at this level, its last 6 races were all in listed company and it has won a listed race off 94 and placed 2nd off todays rating of 102. It has the master on board in Kieren Fallon and he was teaming up with Luca Cumani and firing the winners on his return, he has ridden the horse last time out when 3rd. This horse is out of Falbrav, which was one of my favourite horses and I'd love to see it win to give that horse a boost as a sire. I think it has an each way chance and will probably back it win/place on betfair with more on the place. It was also 3rd to Enticement as a 2 yr old so it will be interesting to see how it fares against it now a year on. Leocorno should have the ability to win this race after decent attempts at Group level but does not look like great value in a decent contest at short enough odds. Suggested Bets: 5pts EW Enticement 16-1 Betfred 1/5 odds place 3pts WIN/7pts PLACE Splashdown Betfair

[chris34]

Re: Newmarket - 16th Oct 2009 2.00 Newmarket Not one for betting in maidens much but go dolphin are just in smashing form at the moment and Atjebi managed to ride this one into 2nd on race course debut trying to make all, maybe a more tactical ride from Detorri may see yet more improvement! 0.5pt win Judiciary 2.35 Newmarket Looks another godolphin win here with not only there own personal form holding well but this horse is clearly a classy juvenile, winning a decent enough maiden at york on race course debut then been contesting group 3’s in france and will find things a hell of a lot easier here and has been far from disgraced in those group 3s. 2pt win emirates dream 5.30 Newmarket Merchant of dubai has been in fine form and has dead heated over course this summer and is clearly capable at this slightly testing tack, was a good 2nd at Hamilton last time out and has been rised 2lb for that which doesn’t look harsh Winston on board again today. William blake has been frustrating all season looking extremely capable of a win but tending to lack a finishing gear but like all Johnston horses stays the trip more than capably an will probably enjoy the good conditions! 0.5pt win merchant of dubai 0.25pt e/w William blake