AFL Rd. 15

[Guest TazaD]

Collingwood/Geelong UNDER 191.5 (1.65) Total way too high, based on Collingwood's free scoring last week v. a terrible Hawthorn side. Collingwood have only topped 100 points twice this year...v. Hawthorn and Bulldogs!! Geelong have only allowed 100+ twice (not counting the first 2 rounds when they were extremely undermanned.)...both away games (@ Freo and @ Port.) Last years game at the Dome totalled 170......In that game Rocca kicked 5 goals, BUT Harley was out of the side for Geelong.....also coming IN from that game are Clement and Prestigiacomo for Collingwood, so I'm expecting both teams to struggle to score in this game. Adelaide +18.5 Surprisingly, despite Adelaide's poor record, they average over 6 Inside 50's per game than Sydney!! They are also better at clearances than the Swans. Even in the home/away stats, I show Sydney only able to give 15 points at the most. Sydney have won only 5 of their last 20 games by more than 14 points. Also Adelaide have a great head to head record v. Sydney....winning their last 4 meetings, inc. 2 at the SCG. Essendon are TERRIFIC odds @ 1.47 Essendon have won 13 of the last 16 meetings...inc. last year by 39 points. Yes, they have lost 3 straight, but to Brisbane, Melbourne and the Kangaroos...all significantly better than Richmond. Forget Richmond's effort last week @ Brisbane....we know Brisbane play to the level of their opposition. Richmond are terrible....they have the least amount of Inside 50's in the AFL, and have kicked only 159 goals this year, equal worst with Hawthorn. People seem to be worried that with Fletcher out, Richo might have a big game, but Fletcher has been poor all season....Also Stafford out for Richmond more than balances that out. Melbourne @ 1.67! Again, Melbourne have a great record v. St. Kilda, winning their last 6 games...inc. last year by 42 points as 2.20 underdogs. But, the real kicker is the MCG. Melbourne have won 8 straight @ the 'G...and we know by now of St. Kilda's poor 'outside' form. They have won only 2 of their last 12 @ the MCG...both v. Hawthorn!! In 5 outdoor games this season they have 2 wins (unconvincing v. Adelaide and Freo), and 3 losses to Sydney the Bulldogs and Port. Now, with Gehrig and Guerra out goals will be hard to come by. Also Kositszke out and McGuire still doubtful puts a big hole in their defense too. I should have jumped aboard @ 1.80, but was keen to see what happened at the tribunal. Port and Brisbane are pretty self explainatory. 2 x Essendon/Brisbane/Port/Melbourne @ 2.92

[Rumlesen]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 Hi TazaD Great write up. Is there an internet radio where i can follow the Geelong game? Only 30 min to kick off