AFL Rd. 15

[Guest TazaD]

West Coast/St. Kilda/Geelong @ 3.00 (x2) West Coast are decent odds @ 1.55. Can't see Essendon winning this game. Eagles have lost only to Freo and Port @ home this season, won 5, inc. good wins over Brisbane and Geelong. They are a young side and are getting better and better each week. players like kerr, Judd, Cousins and Braun have FAR too much pace for the Essendon midfield, and with big players such as Hanson, Seaby and McDougall up forward all starting to play well, they will be hard to stop. Lucas and Hird out for Essendon are HUGE losses. Essendon won the Rd. 3 game at the Dome by 6 points, but had 4 less shots, and Hird had 34 possessions and 3 goals. Don't want to mess with the spread because West Coast have won 4 games by less than 10 points this season, and have shown an annoying ability to give up late 'meaningless' goals. Geelong also good odds @ 1.50. They haven't lost in their last 6 games @ home, and are currently playing great football. I don't think Sydney's wins have been all that convincing...I really don't think they have had a good win all season. The fact that they have only topped 100 points once since Rd.5 says a lot too. Without Hall kicking a bag, Sydney really struggle to score. Goodes down back, O'Loughlan injured and has been poor, Davis carrying injuries. Now, facing Geelong, who (as I said last week) have given up 100+ only 4 times this year.....Rds 1 & 2 when horribly undermanned, and Freo and @ Port)..In fact in their last 5 games they have allowed an average of 66 points! Again, don't want to mess with the spread in what could be a messy/low scoring game, but fairly confident Geelong wil get the win. St. Kilda @ 1.29!! ...This has to be the biggest over-reaction in sports betting history!! The Saints have lost 4 out of 5, but as we all surely now know, they are hardly the Layland Bros!! (ie. They aren't so keen on the great outdoors! ). Now, again, back in the dome where they have won their last 12, and only 2 of those wins have been by less than 34 points!!! (Both as dogs...to Kangaroos, and Brisbane!!). Richmond have scraped passed the Bulldogs and Hawthorn in their last 11 games indoors. They have lost 7 straight games and got BELTED by Essendon last week who were without Fletcher, Bolton, Wellman and Lucas and Hird after 1/2 time. St. Kilda won the Rd. 3 game by 45 points and had 15 more shots!!! Sure Gehrig, Penny, McGuire are out of the team, but it won't matter as the Saints midfield will dominate! They average over 60 inside 50's in the dome!!...and Richmond have the equal lowest inside 50's in the league (along with Hawthorn) and the least goals. This one gets really messy and I have no doubt that St. Kilda win this game.