My Unders System

[palaceman]

Bit of a boring title, I know. I'm sure there have been lots of systems before relating to predicting matches with Under 2.5 goals. This is the first thread I've ever started on Punters Lounge, and I'm a bit nervous (that I might cause people to lose money) so please bear with me, and be gentle! I usually only appear on the Best Bet Of The Day horse racing threads. However, I do like a few investments in other sports. I'm not a great one for systems, certainly not in horse racing. However, last season I developed what I suppose you would call a system, relating to Under 2.5 goal matches. I got the idea from studying Paul R's excellent Prediction Rating thread. Although Paul personally uses these for selections in the form of lays, it struck me that they could be used as the basis for identifying potential Unders. Using Paul's data, and adding a variety of criteria of my own (a bit complex to lay out here) last season I set out to see how I would do, purely on paper. After several successful weeks experimentation, and some minor alterations to my own criteria, I then started placing actual bets. The success continued. As with any form of betting, value is critical to success. If you can obtain value, then you will make a profit over a period of time. Having identified the matches the system selects, I only bet on those where I can obtain a price of at least 1.8. The mathematics of this system are then simple: If I can select 5 correct matches out of every 9, I will make a profit. This I consistently achieved last season. I have only tried it once this season - last week - when I bet on 10 matches (which is a fairly common number of selections for a weekend) and happily 8 were correct, which is a bit higher than average. I thought therefore I might share the system with you. Almost certainly that will result in disaster, with week after week of losses from now on, but we'll see :) I'll be candid; the system won't make anyone rich. But if last season is an accurate guide, it should make regular, if modest profits. To keep it simple, I'll put 10 points on each selection. As there are often 10 or more selections at a weekend, perhaps you'll allow me to operate off a starting bank of 200 points, so that I don't wipe out my entire bank in the first week! I'll be back later with the first weekend's selections, once I've checked them out. But if in the meantime you feel there has already been too many Unders threads, just say so and I'll abandon this thread.

[dannkez2407]

Re: My Unders System hey palace man. Welcome to the systems section. I like the basis of your system, you cant go wrong wit a system based on value. Im interested as to how you obtain your value? What stats are you using to see if the bookies are under pricing:D