bozzers corner Posted July 2, 2004 Share Posted July 2, 2004 Lance at 10's (quarter odds first 4) for King of the Mountains at Ladbrokes - he has come in the top four the last 3 years (not sure about '99 as site won't load :sad ). He will obv be up there in the big points winning mountains (hopefully anyway) - just think this is a big price - can't see him winning it as he doesn't go for the sprints on the little climbs put think the e/w is worth a punt - 12's in other places but only paying the top 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted July 3, 2004 Share Posted July 3, 2004 Re: Tour de France He's come top 4 last 3 years because he's been in yellow overall. This year could be different. Mayo will probably beat him on the Alp D'Huez time trial (I suppose there's points for that one), and other than that I believe there's only 2 other mountain top finishes. My money would probably be on drug cheat Virenque to win it since that's all he's turning up for, and Mayo to get 2nd or 3rd. But then I don't take investments on cheats. Millar, quit now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 4, 2004 Share Posted July 4, 2004 Re: Tour de France Joe, Is Millar confirmed drug taker, or is it another Rusedski situation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted July 9, 2004 Share Posted July 9, 2004 Re: Tour de France He admitted to taking EPO himself, even though he didn't fail any tests. I guess the pressure of being arrested made him crack (excuse the pun ;) ) For me, this makes his career results meaningless, particularly last years World Championship time trial win. He admitted to taking EPO twice in 2003, and it doesn't take a leap of faith to realise when this probably was. Was riding home the other afternoon with an ex-pro who knew David Millar. He said this was always on the cards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 10, 2004 Share Posted July 10, 2004 MILLAR Good riddance in that case. Reharding Le Tour, I urge anybody who has not yet done so, to read Lance Armstorng's book "It's Not About The Bike". I don't read books in general, but this is TRULY inspirational. Some parts of the book had me in bits, and it really puts things into perspective - made me think of Lance on another level - he is probably my all-time sporting hero - mostly because of this book. If you ever get chance, read it :ok COME ON LANCE! :loon :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mr onemore Posted July 11, 2004 Share Posted July 11, 2004 Tour de France I'm certainly only a casual fan of cycling - only ever watching the Tour de France - but what a great event. Now the first week is over I've been looking for a couple of bets myself. Just my opinions!! First, I think Armstrong is no value at all the 1.71 offered at the exchanges I use. I think Armstrong did well to win last year, but it was only a small margin. If things were the same as last year, I'd not want to be lumping on at 1.71. But I also think the format of the race is against him thiis year - there's no long (flat) individual time trial this year, instead it's up Alpe d'Huez, right amongst a load of really hard stages. The organsisers supposedly want to keep the tour close this year for as long as possible, and I'll take their word on the fact that they've done that. But putting all the tricky stages so close together, all sorts of things might happen, and it just makes the winners chances all the more volatile to me, so 1.71 doesn't tempt me. What about all the crashes this year too - maybe the weather is in this - but with such a long race still to go, again 1.71 doesn't seem so attractive. Of the main challengers, Ullrich seems in good form - at least as good as last year, and with a stronger team this year if I'm correct. He only lost by about a minute last year - I haven't checked but those new rules this year limiting the time loss in the team time trial must have helped Ullrich more than Armstrong. Hamilton had a broken collarbone last year, so you'd have to fancy him a bit more this year surely. In Armstrongs favour, the crash for Mayo looks to have put him out of it - still that time trial up the mountain is going to be a great spectacle. I think here though that as Armstrong will probabably go off a lot later than Mayo here, that he'll be able to reduce any big lead Mayo might hope to get here. There probably isn't anyone else apart from Ullrich and Hamilton. On balance, I've gone for the lay on Armstrong at 1.71 What does anyone here say to that? Another bet I've gone for is Team CSC to win the Overall Team event. They seem really well set to repeat their win from last year - already leading, and tactically dominating almost every stage I've watched this year. I've taken 2.00 on Team CSC to win the team event. For a bit of fun, I can't help but put a little on Mayo to win the whole thing at 50.00. He's about 4 mins down, but who knows with that time trial up Alpe d'Huez - he might blow them all away - got be worth a punt at those odds. Is anyone else putting anything on anybody?? Would like to see... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 11, 2004 Share Posted July 11, 2004 Re: Tour de France mr onemore, I honestly could not disagree more. Mayo can't win, no matter what he does up Alp d'Huez, and 2.00 for CSC - are you having a laugh? What price were US Postal on this market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mr onemore Posted July 11, 2004 Share Posted July 11, 2004 Tour de France That's why Mayo is 50.00 - I said in my post that he's probably out of it...just a bit of fun. As for US Postal, you can get about 4.5 - why don't you lump on if you're so cert, and give a few reasons...good luck:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 12, 2004 Share Posted July 12, 2004 Postals Mr onemore, Sorry the post was a bit short - was a bit worse for wear :spank :lol I just think there's so much time left - after all, all we've seen so far is a team time trial, which the Posties took, and a whole load of flat. 4.50 is value for me on US Postal, considering what is to come...:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted July 13, 2004 Share Posted July 13, 2004 Re: Postals I've taken Hamilton top 3 at close to evens with Betfair. He went down to about 1.7 for a while but is now edging back up towards evens, I suppose because he took a battering in the crash on the 10th July. But anyone who can finish 4th in the toughest sporting event bar none carring a broken shoulder surely isn't going to be too badly affected by a bit of bruising on his back. He's had a rest day now, and as they head south the weather should improve, and with it I expect his morale to do so too. Still a good bet IMO. I also took Mayo top 6 at evens. Price is still close to that. He hasn't a hope of winning, and not much more for making the podium. At best he can gain 2 to 3 mins on the big 3 up the Alp D'Huez (Hamilton only lost 30 seconds to him in June on the Ventoux, a longer tougher climb). Perhaps another 3 mins at best on a mountain top finish in the Pyrenees, making 5-6 (but I don't expect it to bne nearly as much as this). But he'll lose at least 2 on the last time trial Saturday week, and being 5 or so down now, he'll have to have a herculian effort and a lot of luck to even have a chance. But top 6 should be no problem provided he doesn't lose heart. Ullrich is a bit of an unknown. I've been tempted to take him to win outright, now 5.3 with Betfair, but T-mobile have been talking like they are preparing their excuses already, and commentators still seem unsure about his weight issue (i.e. he lost too much to fast to get into shape), so I think I'm going to leave it. Missed O'Grady's stage win because as I was ready to take 10s, he dropped to 8s, and I left it. :banghead Also had a little on Fleche the other day at 20s- bugger got caught in the last km. So for now I'll keep my powder dry and see if anything comes up in the mountain stages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2damnhype Posted July 14, 2004 Share Posted July 14, 2004 In-running For the first year I have noticed that there are a few bookies betting on the stages in-running, in no particular order: Stan James Bet365 Bet&Win Betfair. I have been watching these markets on and off during this year's tour (I have work to do during the day so cannot spend much time), and on numerous ocassions I have seen some pretty hefty differences of opinion between the bookies and on betfair. Take today's stage where there was a breakaway, Stan and Bet&win had the two riders covered in a 'field' option that was odds on, bet365 where just quoting those two riders (4/6 ,11/10) whilst at the same time on betfair each rider was available at about 5 or 6/1!!! Although earlier in the stage they had been traded much shorter. Today the breakaway failed (just) and the brave betfair layers kept the cash. but i think as bookmakers strive to cover more sports in-running there will me opportunities to take advantage. I don't have any knowledge to know how big a time gap a 2 two man breakaway needs before they can be considered '@#%$ & flown' but it would seem the betfair layers had a much better idea that the bookies traders. any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mr onemore Posted July 14, 2004 Share Posted July 14, 2004 In running That's interesting about the possible discrepencies in the books...I'm always on the look out for these things, but boy have you got to be fast, a lot of sharpos out there...though maybe the bet365 odds were just 'old' - as for a long while today it looked like those two were going to make it. On the issue of how do you know when a breakaway is going to make it - well Phil Liggett and Paul Sherwin (they've just got to be the best commentators of all time for any sport, though I do like Sid Wadell.....) have been having big trouble making their minds up on these last two stages as to whether the breakaway was going to make it - not surprising today given they only got caught on the line...Anyway, Sherwen has a 'formula' he uses that states the breakaway needs about 1 minute for every 10km left in the race - given normal finishing conditions - to keep away from an organised, chasing pelaton group. Listening to today's winner, McEwen, in an interview after the race was quite interesting. He doesn't think there'll be any more sprint finishes now until the Champs Elysees, as even on the flat stages left, team tactics will play too much a part and breakaway groups will have more chance of succeeding. In running betting is interesting - but I'd suspect just about everyone (bookies and punters) is waiting on Liggett and Sherwen to call it as they commentate -and why not? But if you'd been with them today you'd have bet and layed fifty times in the last 5 mins - what a finish:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 14, 2004 Share Posted July 14, 2004 Re: In running Surely you're not listening to ITV2 commmentary ?:eek Eurosport kicks ass with Christie, Sean and Mike...:loon I reckon Lance is ready for this...I don't want to put too much emphasis on the 2 books he has, but I have read them both, and he is truly an animal. I really think he laughs in the face of adversity and will romp to Number 6. Only my opinion though. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted July 14, 2004 Share Posted July 14, 2004 Re: In-running it would seem the betfair layers had a much better idea that the bookies traders.They probably do, but what makes the difference is the volume and speed of trading, which will be much greater at betfair. Following the odds for the break yesterday at betfair was amazing (sad I realise too :D ), you could almost use it as a running commentary. The 1 min per 10km was useless yesterday, I noticed the peleton was eating up 10 seconds per 1km in the last few km, which is quite staggering. Personally I'd steer clear of the traditional bookies on in running cycling. Because they won't be updating prices as often, they will ensure that their liabilities are well protected, and I think the odds on offer will be pretty poor generally. I think whether a break makes it or not is really down to the mood of the peleton. If they're up for it, then no break will succeed since they are such fantastic judges of time (as we saw yesterday). The key for the punter is to pick the stages and moments when they think the peleton will let the break go on to win, and then get on early when the odds are still high. Some good opportunities come along now and again, but I suspect that the layers do better overall in this market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrewd Posted July 17, 2004 Share Posted July 17, 2004 Re: In-running Surely after todays stage, theres only going to one winner (barring accidents) Tomorrow should confirm that Armstrong is in league of his own, and will be way to title number 6. Mind you I thought this when Riis beat Indurain, but Ullrich got dropped today on a stage that isnt particularly grueling, compare with tomorrow. Mayo might be a drak horse though, but I doubt it, probably top 3 Lances' books are excellent, totally committed to the sport, hes out training when others are having a lie in, and the drug barrons cannot lay anything on him, having knocked on his door all hours god sends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 17, 2004 Share Posted July 17, 2004 Re: In-running Just finished the second book last night Shrewd - an amazing read. Wish I had read it before the tour, then I would have lumped on Lance even more at the odds. Ullrich was poor today - just got dropped at the first sign of a break by Lance, and Tyler hasn't really been anywhere in the tour at all yet...I agree that Lance is the 90% likely winner now, and if you want to take the chance on him not crashing then 2/7 is probably a decent bet :eek Even more so given the incredible work of the Postal team - the protection Lance gets is fantastic, and the work they put in at the front of the Peleton just breaks the back of the work for him ready for him to pounce near the summit - not something I see T-Mobile or Phonak doing. Go Lance :loon :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 20, 2004 Share Posted July 20, 2004 Today's Stage That was just sick by Armstrong today :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bozzers corner Posted July 21, 2004 Author Share Posted July 21, 2004 Basso Basso today is 7's at ladbrokes (1/4 odds first 3) for the time trail up Alp D'Huez - he is 10's at 365 (win only). Surely the 7's is value (esp for e/w) when he has been the only person to stay with Lance thru the big mountain stages this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 21, 2004 Share Posted July 21, 2004 Tour de France bozzer, Personally I have Kloden to beat Basso - I just feel this is a bit of an over-reaction byt he layers. Kloden has been a revelation (as has Basso) in this tour - personally I think it should be 5/6 the pair. Price was at SportingOdds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bozzers corner Posted July 22, 2004 Author Share Posted July 22, 2004 oh well You were right Jeffers :clap another great day for Lance - 7 doesn't seem that far out of reach now does it - just awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 22, 2004 Share Posted July 22, 2004 Re: oh well Yeah bozzer, I thought Basso would struggle in the time trial and Kloden goes from strngth to strength - a real revelation in this tour for me. Lance has 6 now (barring a ridiculous accident), and unless he loses the apetite for it (something he mentions towards the end of his second book, although fleetingly, and I can't see it happening)...he will win a 7th too next year. Tomorrow's stage is a beast, with the awesome Col de la Madeleine and Col du Glandon early on in it. I fancy an early breakaway containing Simoni and possibly Moreau and Virenque - so I'm going for some interesting stage winners: 4pts Simoni @ 16/1 1pt Virenque @ 14/1 1pt Moreau @14/1 All prices Hills as I can't find prices elsewhere atm :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted July 22, 2004 Share Posted July 22, 2004 Re: oh well I agree with Simoni, jeffers, it's time he did something, since he's done sod all else this tour, and like last year he did win a mountain stage towards the end. 25 at betfair currently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bozzers corner Posted July 22, 2004 Author Share Posted July 22, 2004 Great tip.... Getting your money's worth anyway!! :cheers 13 H 57 - Peloton At The Summit At the top of the 2nd climb Bettini has led the peloton over the line 6'50" behind Simoni. Just a shame Lance didn't come out today to try and win the king of the moutains and land the 10's ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 22, 2004 Share Posted July 22, 2004 Re: Great tip.... Certainly getting money's worth as Virenque, Simoni and Moreau are all clear from the peleton :lol Not sure if they will stay clear 3m24secs atm, with Simoni doing a lot of the work, come on! :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 23, 2004 Share Posted July 23, 2004 Re: Great tip.... They went too early in the end, and got caught, but hey I don't mind when a stage is as entertaining as that. I don't know if anyone has seen a Tour like this before - Lance is dominating like nothing I've ever seen. When has any rider in the yellow ever won so many stages with such ease? Personally I think what he has been through has toughened his mentality to the point where nothing (while he's on a bike, anyway) can beat it. Not just that, he is motivated like no other human being I can think of; he prepares massively, and he has constructed a team round himself that is almost unstoppable. Quite incredible. :loon I'm a fan, if you didn't already notice :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted July 23, 2004 Share Posted July 23, 2004 Re: Great tip.... I don't know if anyone has seen a Tour like this beforeI think you may be forgetting Merckx, but he was before my time so I can only go off records. 96 days in the yellow jersey of the Tour de France 34 stage wins in the Tour de France (5 wins overall) 24 stage wins in the Giro d'Italia (5 wins overall) 6 stage wins in the Tour of Spain (1 win overall) 445 professional victories He also one the yellow, green and polka dot jerseys in a signle year. This compares to Armstrong's 60 odd days in yellow and 20 stage wins. He never bothers to ride the other 2 big tours. Lance focuses his entire year around the TdF. Merckx averaged 140 races per year between 1969 and 1973. Even Armstrong himself has said that he cannot assume the role of "The Cannibal". That said, I think what he has achieved this year does make a mockery of the King of the Mountains classification, and for that matter the green jersey. Despite the rules changes double points for mountain top finishes, Virenque has walked away with the title, yet Armstrong has won an unprecedented 4 mountain stages on the trot. I think it's pretty obvious who the real King of the Mountains is. Assuming he wins the final time trial, then Armstrong will have won 6 stages out of 20 if you include the team time trial, that's 30% of them!!! The green jersey is meant to go to the most consistently high placing rider, but that will not be Amstrong. The next best is Hushovd with two, but he ain't gonna win it either. I realise that points in these two jersey competitions are offered for intermediate sprints and climbs to keep the racing fast, and the audiences and sponsors happy, but personally I think it's a bit silly. I suppose, I however, if Armstrong simply won everything, people might get bored, as with Formula 1. Perhaps the solution is to increase the points available for final wins even more than they have, and offer bigger cash prizes for the intermediates to keep the riders' interest in those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 23, 2004 Share Posted July 23, 2004 Re: Great tip.... yet Armstrong has won an unprecedented 4 mountain stages on the trot That's what I meant by not seeing a tour like this before - Merckx was long long before my time so I can't comment really. I agree about the KOTM being a bit of a farce - how you can call anyone other than Armstrong KOTM is just silly. I agree that they should probably make it 3x the points on final climbs rather than 2x - but Virenque will continue to break away and take climbs only to fade away at the end, and still probably get away with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted July 23, 2004 Share Posted July 23, 2004 Re: Great tip.... Looks like Millar will lose his world TT title. www.eurosport.com/home/pa...6472.shtml Serves him right. Cheating never pays, unless you're Virenque ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 24, 2004 Share Posted July 24, 2004 Tour de France What's all this about Virenque cheating? :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted July 24, 2004 Share Posted July 24, 2004 Re: Tour de France 1998, the Festina squad were thrown out, with Virenque leading the KOTM at the time. Can't remember the whole story, but basically suitcases of drugs were found that the team doctor had been administering to the riders. At least I think it was something like that. Virenque was in denial about it for 18 months until he finally broke down crying at a court hearing, if memory serves me. However, his good looks and the fact that an American keeps winning has ensured that he's still a favourite with the French girls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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