US Golf PGA Tour Championship

[Ian R]

Jerry Kelly 0.25 ew 80/1 Outright 0.25 win only 100/1 Betfair 0.5 ew 40/1 without Woods 0.6 win only 50/1 without Woods Betfair Nick Watney 0.3 win only 90/1 Betfair 0.6 top 4 14/1 Betfair 0.6 win without Woods 45/1 Betfair Right then - where to start on the reasonings behind the bets - well I could say they both have surnames ending in Y and as long as they don't have the christian name Kenny then they have to be backed - my Grandad always backed horses who had double letters in their name who had finished 4th last time - weirdly I keep on looking at horse results and see them winning lol. Anyway - Jerry Kelly - course form is superb though slightly old - he was 3rd and 4th here back in 02/04 and was desperately keen to get in when he knew he had a chance this year - he holed a 10 footer at the last at Cog Hill to earn his spot. His good finishes a few years ago were based on his GIR stats - he was 1st and 2nd so its good to know that he headed the GIR stats at Boston a few weeks ago. The East Lake course was revamped before last years Tour Championship so some things will seem unfamiliar, a bit of length was added and some bunkers changed but it is still a par 70 and Kelly seems to play his best golf on par 70 courses. The main important change is on the greens - they are now Miniverde Bermuda and the other PGA course which has these to counteract the hot deep south summers is Louisiana where Kelly won this year. The last point leads me neatly on to Watney who also won on the Louisiana course back in 2007 and he seems to be a bit like a horse who has slipped to an attractive mark - only Watney has slipped to an attractive price. He hasn't been playing that badly of late and his GIR stats are usually amongst the better on tour. Perhaps he likes limited field events- he was 5th at the Mercedes and interestingly won the Nationwide Tour Championship in 2004 and although he has no course form on the face of it he is not without experience around East Lake. In 2001 he played the US Amateur round here and had a similar result to last years winner Villegas - he went a round further though Villegas lost to eventual winner Dickerson. So I do think he has drifted to a very backable price this week - earlier this season he was 25/1 for events.

[Ricochet]

Re: US Golf PGA Tour Championship Tour Championship - East Lake, Atlanta Zach Johnson A fairly consistent player who should be on top of his game today. Course conditions seem to suit and he should produce a good performance. Tiger is strongly fancied and is rightly favourite but Johnson should give him a run for his money (and mine!). 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 general

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: US Golf PGA Tour Championship Predictions: Tiger Woods @2.10 Paddypower ***** Outright Simple reason, his figures since 2005 on re-designed course layouts by Rees Jones reads: 1-2-4-2-1-1-1-6-1-1-1-1-6-1-2 -1. That's an amazing 10 wins from 16 starts on courses of this type! I know the odds are skinny but don't forget the field is greatly reduced and therefore I figure the price is better value than if he were competing in an ordinary PGA event. 1st Round Leader - Retief Goosen @17.00 EW 1,2,3,4 places Paddypower *** Goosen likes to start fast and has proven this previously the last time he played here (2006) he was the joint first round leader while 12 months earlier he was second after the opening round. :ok

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: US Golf PGA Tour Championship 1st round 2 ball Steve Stricker v Tiger Woods - Steve Stricker @3.00 Paddypower ** I can't let this go by when a Guy like Stricker in the form he is in, in a 2 horse race get 2/1 odds!!! Woods got out the blocks very uncharacteristically fast last time out in the BMW but prior to this at The Deutsche Bank he shot an opening 70 whilst Stricker shot 63 then previous to that at the Barclays Woods shot another opening 70 whilst Stricker shot 69! I expect Woods to get himself well positioned to eventually win this event however his game is set up for the duration of 4 days and one round starting will not dent his chance here. Stricker won't be intimidated by Woods here and if he can get into his normal fast stride I figure these odds are ridiculous! :ok