barrhead73 Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage hi barrhead. i had previously thought that i understood arbing using laying and backing. after reading your post, i felt like a novice once again. could you tell me how much was your stake on back and lay? cause i just could not get the numbers of $3.62 for a $25 stake. thanks £25 on the Back bet at odds of 15 (or 14/1) if fractional £30.12 on Lay at odds of 12.5 If horse wins you get 25x15= £375 less original stake of £25 = £350 less your lay risk of £346.38 = £3.62 If horse lose then you get your £30.12 less commission (4.9%) = £28.64 less your back stake of £25 = £3.64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage update: 28/9/09 baseball. Cincinnati Reds won against Houston Astros won against Cincinnati Reds. total revenue: $601 x 1.670 = $1004 total profit for this match = $4 American Football. Minnesota Vikings won against SF 49ers. total revenue = $711 x 1.46 = $1038 total profit for this match = $38 JAX Jaguars won against HOU Texans. total revenue = $375 x 2.78 = $1043 total profit for this match = $43 Football Giresunspor won against Kocaelispor total revenue = $364 x 2.8 = $1019 total profit = $19 Total stakes unresolved = $0 Total profit till date (9 matches staked, 0 unresolved) = $4 + $38 + $43 +$19 + $293 = $397 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage £25 on the Back bet at odds of 15 (or 14/1) if fractional £30.12 on Lay at odds of 12.5 If horse wins you get 25x15= £375 less original stake of £25 = £350 less your lay risk of £346.38 = £3.62 If horse lose then you get your £30.12 less commission (4.9%) = £28.64 less your back stake of £25 = £3.64 oh yearh. thanks!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage £25 on the Back bet at odds of 15 (or 14/1) if fractional £30.12 on Lay at odds of 12.5 If horse wins you get 25x15= £375 less original stake of £25 = £350 less your lay risk of £346.38 = £3.62 If horse lose then you get your £30.12 less commission (4.9%) = £28.64 less your back stake of £25 = £3.64 Errrm, am I missing something here? You pay commission on the net winnings on the market; so, if horse loses, you get (30.12 - 25.00) = 5.12 GBP, and then you apply commission, so your profit if horse loses is 4.87 GBP, and not 3.64. If you wanted to equalize, lay stake should be 30.00 GBP, not 30.12 GBP (25.00 * 15.00 / 12.50); not a huge difference on the first sight, but high odds make liability to rocket... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage Errrm, am I missing something here? You pay commission on the net winnings on the market; so, if horse loses, you get (30.12 - 25.00) = 5.12 GBP, and then you apply commission, so your profit if horse loses is 4.87 GBP, and not 3.64. If you wanted to equalize, lay stake should be 30.00 GBP, not 30.12 GBP (25.00 * 15.00 / 12.50); not a huge difference on the first sight, but high odds make liability to rocket... hi froment. the backing and laying are done on different betting exchanges and bookies. so, at the laying side, the net win is $30.12 since the laying side does not know about the loss at the backing side. so commission would be 4.9% of $30.12 and not $30.12-$25. and the money to equalize is correct at $30.12. the real odds of laying is 12.451. of the profit, 4.9% will be take away as commission. so odds = 12.5 - 0.049 = 12.451. thus, in this case, lay stake is 25 x 15.00/12.451 = 30.12 hoped it cleared your doubt!:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footballgenius Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage is there a site that points out any horses that we can arb? i.e, back it and then lay on betfair?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage hi froment. the backing and laying are done on different betting exchanges and bookies. hoped it cleared your doubt!:) Well, it cleared any doubts; sorry, I didn't know bets have been taken at different bookies/exchanges, I thought it was usual laying after odds dropped; thanks for explanation! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage soccer. 2/10/09 FC Trenkwald against Austria Vienna. Austrian league. NordicBet offer 2.45 Trenkwald win at full-time, Bet365 offer 5.75 at draw at half-time, StarPrice offer 10.7 Austria Vienna win at full-time. We are going to bet $604 with SportingBet, $258 with Bet365, and $138 with StarPrice. Total stakes for this match = $1000 Total stakes unresolved = $1000 Total profit till date (10 matches staked, 1 unresolved) = $397 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage Apologies Froment for my explanation. Football Genius, if there was such a site that would truly be fantastic. I have still to find one but using odds matching websites does the job at the moment. Found a nice one today in the 3.15 - Horse called Cool Art was at 21's with Bet365 and could be layed at Betfair at 19's. Probably gone now though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage BUT......remember that horse racing could be susceptible to the dreaded Rule 4 deduction if there are some late non runners which could leave you with a loss should your horse win with the bookie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted October 3, 2009 Author Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage hi barrhead73. then is there any way to minimise or take away the risk of rule 4 occurring at all? also. which bet matching websites do you use? thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted October 3, 2009 Author Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage Update: 3/10/09 Soccer. Fc Trenkwald won against Austrian Vienna 3-0. Total earnings for this match = 2.45 x $604 = $1480 Total profits for this match = $1480 - $1000 = $480 Total stakes unresolved = $0 Total profit till date (10 matches staked, 0 unresolved) = $397 + $480 = $877 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 3, 2009 Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage i use freebets4all and free-easy-money websites just now. As for rule 4 deductions, you've just got to go for big odds differences between the back and lay, plus if you go for high odds runners there is less chance of them winning.....usually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted October 8, 2009 Share Posted October 8, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage Hi, just to warn you - I think every gambler has thought about sure-win betting in his early career, and many have tried it and failed. It's a minefield I would stay well out of, the only exception being sure-win betting on the exchanges if you can do it, for example live. Sure-betting with ordinary bookmakers is guaranteed to cause you grief, and a paper trial is meaningless as the real traps here are bookies changing their odds and the comparison services not following, bookies denying your bets, bookies limiting your bets, booking annulling your bets, placing all the bets at the same time, a rule that you weren't familiar with suddenly ruins your bet etc. Also the profits are so small and stakes so high one disaster, which inevitably will happen, will wipe out most of your stakes and will to live... I'm sure there's a few people who make a decent profit on sure-wins, for example on horses on the exchanges, but my advice to any young and interested gambler would be to focus on gambling and not on sure-win betting, which is not actually gambling, it's just the paradox of being a high-risk guaranteed bet... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 8, 2009 Share Posted October 8, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage Fair point Lardonio, every arber will have a story to tell of a bookie doing the dirty on them. Mine was in a game between Rochdale and Wycombe last season when i backed Rochdale at Stan James and layed them off at the Fair and guaranteed a profit. Then the day before the game, the email arrives from Stan James saying that the odds i took were obviously an error on their part and they have decided to cancel that bet at those odds and place it on the corrected odds!!!!! I was effing livid and sent an email to that effect. they didnt reply. so how much did i lose?????? Nothing. The game got postponed due to Snow. Imagine my relief on hearing that! The morale of the story - If the odds look too good to be true, they probably are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
revner Posted October 14, 2009 Share Posted October 14, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage I was reading through this thread as a guest and decided to join just to point a few things out. Backing and laying is not arbing, it is trading. soccer. 2/10/09 FC Trenkwald against Austria Vienna. Austrian league. NordicBet offer 2.45 Trenkwald win at full-time, Bet365 offer 5.75 at draw at half-time, StarPrice offer 10.7 Austria Vienna win at full-time. We are going to bet $604 with SportingBet, $258 with Bet365, and $138 with StarPrice. Total stakes for this match = $1000 Total stakes unresolved = $1000 Total profit till date (10 matches staked, 1 unresolved) = $397 That is clearly not an arb. Barrhead obviously knows his stuff but I don't think anyone was really very blunt in telling neomosquito that he obviously hasn't done enough research. Arbers would be very rich people if they could get as much as he is stating on their arbs. Even pinny has max stakes of about £250 on alot of tennis matches so the chances of getting as much money on as he stated is very farfetched. Also another thing he didn't concider is was baseball, whether the pitcher was named or not. The main issue with arbing is bankroll, if you have a bankroll of £30, 000 you should be able to manage your money and arb comfortably full time. But if you have something like £10, 000 you wont stand a chance of being full time because if you do £8,000 of arbs one day then the next day all your funds are gunna be in very few books. Which will mean you can do very little that day. Being limited and getting accounts closed down are another problem, which is why arbers wont tell you who they are because they get ids from their friends. Thats all I got to say really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 14, 2009 Share Posted October 14, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage Very True Revner, obvious arbing gets you barred quickly or limited even quicker. Both VC and SportingBet requested that i beat it and took my arbs with me while Skybet limits me to 10% of the max bet. My arbs ain't gonna make me rich but i find that the money made on them each week can help offset the weeks when my real staking systems fail to perform. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
revner Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage Yer that's the problem. You don't stand a chance with any of the British books especially with arbitrage but then again they become useless for normal betting if you keep winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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