GJS Posted September 17, 2009 Share Posted September 17, 2009 This system is based on the average amount of minutes it takes a player to score a goal in relation to the odds for him to score anytime. I have calculated the average amount of minutes it takes every player who has a decent striking record to score since the 2006/2007 season through to the present season and will continue to calculate as this changes throughout the season. This system will work by; Calculating the amount of minutes played by a player since the 2006/2007 season, how many goals scored he has scored and the average amount of many minutes he has played to score 1 goal. For example, Robin Van Persie has played 3613 minutes and scored 19 goals, 3613/19 = 190. So on average Robin Van Persie scores a goal every 190 minutes, this figure is then divded by 90 (minutes) to get a figure of how many games he plays on average before scoring. In this case 190/90 = 2.11 games. What this system won't take on board is that a player may score a hat-trick in 1 match and not score for the next 4 games. This will be counteracted by trying to get better odds than the statistical chance of it occuring. In this case, plus at least 0.5, this figure could change depending on the success of the system. Another factor to also consider is whether the player will play the whole match or only a bit part. For example, John Carew has a good goals to minute ratio but is not always considered first team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GJS Posted September 18, 2009 Author Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Premier League Anytime Goal Scorer 19/09/09 English Premier League Burnley vs Sunderland Darren Bent to score anytime (2.88 Extrabet) (10 points) West Ham United vs Liverpool Fernando Torres to score anytime (2.15 Extrabet) (10 points) Steven Gerrard to score anytime (2.88 Extrabet) (10 points) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Premier League Anytime Goal Scorer Good plan mate. Have you accounted for the average amount of goals that you expect the team to score. Eg torres will score more against hull than barcelona. (on average) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GJS Posted September 18, 2009 Author Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Premier League Anytime Goal Scorer I am planning to account for other factors such as the standard of the other team, whether home or away, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Premier League Anytime Goal Scorer A starting point may be looking at the spread quotes for goal estimates then adjust your estimate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GJS Posted September 19, 2009 Author Share Posted September 19, 2009 Re: Premier League Anytime Goal Scorer 19/09/09 English Premier League Burnley vs Sunderland Darren Bent to score anytime (2.88 Extrabet) (10 points) :clap West Ham United vs Liverpool Fernando Torres to score anytime (2.15 Extrabet) (10 points) :clap Steven Gerrard to score anytime (2.88 Extrabet) (10 points) :cry Starting bank: 100 points Current bank: 119.95 points Total staked: 30 points Number of bets: 3 bets Winning bets: 2 bets Losing bets: 1 bet Strike rate: 67% Yield: 67% Profit (or Loss): 19.95 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.