Otter4 Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 I placed these bets with some success last season. Initially just to make matches interesting, with the possibility of a large win. I will be choosing 4 first goal scorer bets from English football, with preferred odds of around 7/1. Selection criteria will include opposition, form, last season stats and value. However with one sided games the odds will reduce to between 3/1 - 6 /1. 1 point lucky 15 = a 15 point bet. Based on 7/1 shots, a rough guide to possible results are as follows; 0 correct = 15 point loss 1 correct = 7 point loss 2 correct = 57 point profit 3 correct = 528 point profit 4 correct = 3728 point profit I am doing this as a £1 lucky 15 each week, however as I have no detailed results of this, I would suggest others just paper trail. I expect regular losses with this (hopefully 1 correct selection to minimise losses) , but then as you can see 2 correct will reward a healthy profit and 3 or more we will be smiling!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 13, 2009 Author Share Posted August 13, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's 1st selections Andy Johnson (Portsmouth v FULHAM) 7/1 Adebayor (Blackburn v MAN CITY) 7/1 Fuller (STOKE v Burnley) 6/1 Doyle (WOLVES v West Ham) 8/1 1 point lucky 15 = 15 points (placed with Coral) Starting Bank = 100 points New Bank = 85 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justbetter Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Just thought I'd let you know Adebayor has a groin strain picked up on international duty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justbetter Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Also good luck for this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Good luck with this, I've dabbled with first goal scorer multiples myself. BTW I think Adebeyor may not play due to a groin strain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Doh, Jimmah beat me to it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 14, 2009 Share Posted August 14, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Think Doyle is out too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 14, 2009 Author Share Posted August 14, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Thanks guys, I'm doing this is as a bit of fun to go alongside my other betting. Small stakes, but I will top up the bank if there is a long losing streak; I am starting with a hypothetical 100 point bank in line with the forum recommendations and to make profits/losses easier to follow. Just looked at skysports news; Adebayor and Doyle do look very doubtful! In which case they would both be voided and I would have just 3 lines - (2 singles and a double). I will void the above bets and post a new bet after doing some extra homework. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 14, 2009 Author Share Posted August 14, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's FootballBarclays Premier LeaguePortsmouth v Fulham1st Goalscorer 15/08/2009 15:00Johnson, A. @ 13/2 FootballBarclays Premier LeagueStoke v Burnley1st Goalscorer 15/08/2009 15:00Fuller, R. @ 13/2 FootballBarclays Premier LeagueBolton v Sunderland1st Goalscorer 15/08/2009 15:00Jones, K. @ 15/2 FootballBarclays Premier LeagueWolves v West Ham1st Goalscorer 15/08/2009 15:00Ebanks-Blake, S. @ 13/2 Ok - try again - new lucky 15 = 15 points Start bank 100 New bank = 85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 14, 2009 Author Share Posted August 14, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's This time the best acca odds were with skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted August 14, 2009 Share Posted August 14, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's was thinking along the same lines this season but will be picking mostly the same players week in week out for thier club going to stick mine in the glory hunt section as no system involved :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 14, 2009 Author Share Posted August 14, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Goodluck Bowles10 - I expect to place around 40 Lucky 15's over the course of the season which will see a total outlay of 600 points. This is obviously not sure fire system, where you can expect quick results or a high strike rate. However over the course of the season, if I can pick one 3 timer! that should return around 538 points, which will almost cover my whole seasons outlay! Any other wins over the course of the season will therefore be profit and of course there is the very slender chance of a four timer coming in, which will make me very happy! Fingers crossed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 14, 2009 Share Posted August 14, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Have you done any back research regarding frequency of first goal scorers? For instance if adebayor scored the first goal 8 times in 40 starts last season his expected odds would be 5/1 or 6.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 14, 2009 Author Share Posted August 14, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's good question KThom - I have done more research on goals per game (starting as opposed to sub's), goals scored home or away i.e rule out players that rarely score away, teams scored against, method of goal i.e. mostly headers mean I may rule them out if they are up against a physical team like stoke who can negate such tactics.,etc. I have read good articles on the betfair archives such as; http://betting.betfair.com/football/matt-talks-stats/first-goalscorer-are-you-getting-full-value-for-yo-180308.html and http://betting.betfair.com/football/premiership/football-betting-why-i-love-first-goalscorer-bets-030309.html Whilst I acknowledge the amount of times that a player scores first has a big bearing on odds and therefore value. I would also argue that first scorer bets have a huge amount of variables and would not necessarily blindly back a player who has a higher first scoring strike rate than a player who has a higher goals to game ratio. I do intend to do more research on this though. cheers kthom ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 16, 2009 Author Share Posted August 16, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's OK - not a great start. No winners this week :cry Therefore week 1 = -15 points This was made even worse by Adebayor scoring first within 3 minutes :wall(thought he was supposed to have a dodgy groin!) Ah well - onwards and upwards. Bank stands at 85 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 17, 2009 Author Share Posted August 17, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's OK - Here are the selections for tomorrow evenings football. FootballBarclays Premier LeagueSunderland v Chelsea1st Goalscorer 18/08/2009 19:45Lampard, F. @ 13/2 FootballBarclays Premier LeagueWigan v Wolves1st Goalscorer 18/08/2009 19:45Gomez, J. @ 9/1 FootballChampions LeagueCeltic v Arsenal1st Goalscorer 18/08/2009 19:45Bendtner, N. @ 15/2 FootballChampions LeagueSporting Lisbon v Fiorentina1st Goalscorer 18/08/2009 19:45Liedson @ 11/2 :hope 1 point lucky 15 = 15 points. NEW BANK = 70 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robfenech Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Good luck with this mate - really nice idea :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 19, 2009 Author Share Posted August 19, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's No winners again. Not a huge surprise although it would be nice to get a first winner in the bank. Bank = 70 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 19, 2009 Author Share Posted August 19, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's FootballChampions LeaguePanathinaikos v Atletico Madrid1st Goalscorer 19/08/2009 19:45Aguero, S. @ 13/2 FootballBarclays Premier LeagueBirmingham v Portsmouth1st Goalscorer 19/08/2009 19:45Benitez, C. @ 6/1 FootballBarclays Premier LeagueHull v Tottenham1st Goalscorer 19/08/2009 19:45Defoe, J. @ 9/2 FootballCoca Cola ChampionshipNewcastle v Sheff. Wed1st Goalscorer 19/08/2009 19:45Carroll, A. @ 6/1 1point lucky 15 = 15 points New bank 55 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted August 19, 2009 Share Posted August 19, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Good luck with this, I have one on tonight and have Benitez on as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted August 19, 2009 Share Posted August 19, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Put these on at the last minute otherwise a non-runner will screw up your bonus. Huddersfield Town have signed FOUR good strikers and Clark is rotating. Rhodes is the best so check team news just before kick-off. He will get loads of 1st goals and the bookies have not sussed him yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 20, 2009 Share Posted August 20, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Lad's i don't do this anymore but if you have an eye for players who are likely to do well against certain defenses, then "fivefolds from ten E/W First goalscorer" is a gold mine in the longrun as well as producing big windfalls on certain weekends. It's basically the just an advanced form of the aforementioned bet that involves 10 selections rather than just 4. You stake is obviously multiplied by a lot higer a number so be careful before you press the "bet" button. Note: Don't take selections all from the prem, take them from the games from around the different leagues that are likely to be the most open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 21, 2009 Author Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Ok - thanks for your comments guys. Will look in to the each way bets a bit further. There have been quite a few placed scorers so far! First winner in the book, and a welcome double odds bonus for one correct winner (Defoe) meant a return of 10 points. A 2 timer will be very welcome in the next round of bets. In response to selecting outside the premiership, I had Chopra and Maynard on my shortlist of 7 scorers. Unfortunately I narrowed down wrong! But i agree there is value to be had outside the big league! Old bank = 55 points New bank = 65 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 21, 2009 Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's How many perms is that value finder? Not really a multiple fan so never worked out the bet per selection method. Is there a simple way to calculate 4 folds from 5 selections, 6 folds from 10 etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 21, 2009 Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's You can use this mate: http://www.systembetting.co.uk/calculator/sysbperm.htm[url=http://betcalculator.paddypower.com/start.php?lang=en] "fourfolds from 10 E/W" is actually the bet I used to do, not fivefolds... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 21, 2009 Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's You can use this mate: http://www.systembetting.co.uk/calculator/sysbperm.htm "fourfolds from 10 E/W" is actually the bet I used to do, not fivefolds... Top man, cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 21, 2009 Author Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's cheers value finder - you have convinced me! Although I couldn't get the bet calculator to work out each way goals? Am i missing something? I'm going to continue with the lucky 15 bet as Bank 1. Bank 2 will start at 500 points and the bets will comprise of 10 each way first goal scorer bets, permed in 4-folds. This means a cool 420 lines. For ease of use, i will be betting 0.1 point lines, which toals 42 points for the bet. Paper trail only! Selections to follow tomorrow morning! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 22, 2009 Author Share Posted August 22, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Morning all! Bank 1 = 65 points at the moment. FootballBarclays Premier LeagueBirmingham v Stoke1st Goalscorer 22/08/2009 15:00Beattie, J. @ 6/1 FootballCoca Cola ChampionshipCrystal Palace v Newcastle1st Goalscorer 22/08/2009 15:00Carroll, A. @ 7/1 FootballCoca Cola ChampionshipWest Brom v Ipswich1st Goalscorer 22/08/2009 17:20Moore, L. @ 6/1 FootballBarclays Premier LeagueArsenal v Portsmouth1st Goalscorer 22/08/2009 15:00Bendtner, N. @ 5/1 New bank = 50 points BANK 2 = 500 points 10 each way first goal scorers bets permed in 4-folds = 420 lines @ 10p a line = £42 or 42 points. FootballBarclays Premier LeagueArsenal v Portsmouth1st Goalscorer 22/08/2009 15:00Bendtner, N. @ 5/1 (Each way 5 places @ 1/3 odds) FootballBarclays Premier LeagueSunderland v Blackburn1st Goalscorer 22/08/2009 15:00Bent, D. @ 5/1 (Each way 5 places @ 1/3 odds) FootballBarclays Premier LeagueWigan v Man. Utd1st Goalscorer 22/08/2009 15:00Berbatov, D. @ 5/1 (Each way 5 places @ 1/3 odds) FootballCoca Cola ChampionshipWest Brom v Ipswich1st Goalscorer 22/08/2009 17:20Moore, L. @ 6/1 (Each way 5 places @ 1/3 odds) FootballCoca Cola ChampionshipCardiff v Bristol City1st Goalscorer 23/08/2009 13:15Chopra, M. @ 5/1 (Each way 5 places @ 1/3 odds) FootballCoca Cola ChampionshipCrystal Palace v Newcastle1st Goalscorer 22/08/2009 15:00Carroll, A. @ 7/1 (Each way 5 places @ 1/3 odds) FootballCoca Cola League 1Carlisle v Exeter1st Goalscorer 22/08/2009 15:00Norwood, J. @ 10/1 (Each way 5 places @ 1/3 odds) FootballCoca Cola League 2Notts Co. v Dagenham1st Goalscorer 22/08/2009 15:00Hughes, L. @ 4/1 (Each way 5 places @ 1/3 odds) FootballCoca Cola League 2Torquay v Barnet1st Goalscorer 22/08/2009 15:00Sills, T. @ 11/2 (Each way 5 places @ 1/3 odds) FootballBarclays Premier LeagueWest Ham v Tottenham1st Goalscorer 23/08/2009 13:30Defoe, J. @ 11/2 (Each way 5 places @ 1/3 odds) :hope:hope Here's to a good weekends betting :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's Sky bet (plus many others I presume) do a "to score in 90 minutes" market - which seems slighty better value than the 1/3rd odds and covers the unlikely outcome of a player scoring the 6th or 7th goal. It will also make it easier to calculate your potential retuns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 22, 2009 Author Share Posted August 22, 2009 Re: First Goal Scorer Lucky 15's KThom, I deliberated over that for a while. I went for the each way, so that I have the chance of 1st goal scorer wins and bigger money, as well as the each way side of things. In hindsight, it would be best to do a straight first goalscorer bet, and then an anytime scorer bet as well. Slightly more time consuming, but you are right 6th goal + has to be factored in as well as the extra value of the odds. Cheers! Thought provoking stuff! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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