Mussleburgh - 6/7/09

[fintron]

5.15 Musselburgh Acclaben remains well handicapped and it is surely only a matter of time until Alan Swinbank's gelding makes his lenient mark pay. On his York debut he was closely matched with Whatwouldyouwishfor (handicap winner off 72 since) and on his second start at Thirsk he was infront of Coleorton Choice (h'cap winner off 70, 77 and 83 since) and had Rio Cobolo (won off 61 since) behind. He was initially rated 63 for his handicap debut in a Redcar nursery last term and finished a respectable 6th in a large field. He was then due to run at Ayr before the heavy ground forced a withdrawl, and he was put away for the year. However, he will come on for a recent pipeopener at Pontefract, has dropped 3 lb in the handicap, and can build upon that 5th and go in here. 5/1 SJ.

[fintron]

Re: Mussleburgh - 6/7/09 4.15 Musselburgh The fourth nursery of the season here and Vilnius is turned out here after running at Redcar last week. She looks sure to find races off her present mark, looking well handicapped based on her maiden form. However, she did not settle very well in the early stakes last time out and although she had every chance 1f, was ultimately held, and at the price I don't want to risk a full stake on a horse that may not settle again. My main bet here is thus Eternal Instinct. This Exceed And Excel filly is bred for speed and takes a marked drop in class to figure here for Jim Goldie. Her form figures suggest a patchy profile, but infact, she has been contesting some decent grade races. She won a Haydock maiden on her debut and had todays opponent Goodbye Earl behind. Aalsmeer was back in second that day but managed to reverse the form when a head second at York next time out. However, Eternal Instinct did have Chicita Banana behind and literal interpretation of that formline may suggest Eternal Instinct could beat Vilnius here, as Chicita Banana herself was infront of Vilnius in a Bath maiden in April. Eternal Instinct ran at this track in a conditions race in June and was not far behind Archer's Road, a horse that has made great strides this season and is rated in the 90's. Most of those infront of Archers Road that day are also useful enough types, rated 80+, so I don't think there is any great shame in a 7th placed finish. Last time out at Ascot Eternal Instinct was well beaten in a fillies Group 3, but the likes of Curtains, Jira, Absolute Music and Leleyf who beat her home have all ran solid races at listed level or above, and from all of this I have thus concluded that Eternal Instint is well handicapped today. Eternal Instinct - 4/1 Stan James, 0.8 pt Saver SF- Vilnius to beat Eternal Instinct, 5.4 Bet 365, 0.2 pt