Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

[bowles10]

Been thinking about this one recently when viewing some of the ridiculous prices put up by bookies when horses have little or no experience but end up as favourite against thier elders. I have applied some filters & these are the results July 2007

Date	Race	Horse	SP	Position	£100 win	£50 each way
2 Jul 2007	8:10 Windsor	RUSSIAN EPIC	2-1	4/8	-100	-100
7 Jul 2007	2:35 Sandown	MUTANASEB	9-2	5/17	-200	-200
12 Jul 2007	9:10 Nottingham	GONGIDAS	11-8	1/7	-62	-114
16 Jul 2007	7:30 Windsor	ARABIAN TREASURE	5-2	6/8	-162	-214
19 Jul 2007	5:55 Folkestone	WATER MARGIN	10-3	3/10	-262	-230
20 Jul 2007	7:05 Pontefract	HYPOTENEUSE	3-1	3/8	-362	-250
21 Jul 2007	3:35 Newmarket	BEE EATER	5-2	1/11	-112	-100
27 Jul 2007	5:05 Ascot	FIFTY CENTS	2-1	8/10	-212	-200
28 Jul 2007	2:10 York	CIRCLE OF LOVE	15-8	6/8	-312	-300
28 Jul 2007	4:45 Newmarket	MARKET FORCES	2-1	1/7	-112	-175
28 Jul 2007	8:40 Salisbury	VENTURA	6-4	2/5	-212	-206
30 Jul 2007	8:40 Windsor	MONTJEU'S MELODY	4-1	7/13	-312	-306

Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	12	3	25.0%	74.0%	6	50.0%	74.4%

July 2008 Selections

Date	Race	Horse	SP	Position	£100 win	£50 each way
4 Jul 2008	7:35 Salisbury	MISSION CONTROL	9-4	4/7	-100	-100
4 Jul 2008	9:30 Haydock	MERCHANT OF DUBAI	11-8	2/6	-200	-132
5 Jul 2008	2:40 Sandown	MASAALEK	9-2	3/15	-300	-126
5 Jul 2008	4:40 Beverley	HERRERA	5-2	4/7	-400	-226
5 Jul 2008	8:20 Nottingham	HUNTING COUNTRY	9-4	1/9	-175	-91
10 Jul 2008	5:05 Folkestone	CHARLEVOIX	11-8	4/7	-275	-191
10 Jul 2008	8:05 Doncaster	LAMBDA	4-6	5/7	-375	-291
11 Jul 2008	4:55 Newmarket	COOL JUDGEMENT	13-8	3/15	-475	-321
11 Jul 2008	7:25 Newbury	HARALD BLUETOOTH	7-4	1/8	-300	-216
17 Jul 2008	8:10 Doncaster	PERSIAN SEA	6-5	1/8	-180	-144
18 Jul 2008	7:05 Pontefract	FLAM	3-1	5/9	-280	-244
19 Jul 2008	3:55 Newbury	HUNTING COUNTRY	9-2	1/16	170	37
21 Jul 2008	4:30 Ayr	INXILE	6-1	3/16	70	62
26 Jul 2008	8:40 Salisbury	TABLEAU VIVANT	9-4	2/5	-30	40
28 Jul 2008	7:40 Windsor	ORANGE PIP	8-11	8/8	-130	-59

Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	15	4	26.7%	91.3%	9	60.0%	96.0%

Combined totals Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	27	7	25.9%	83.6%	15	55.6%	86.4%

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps a fairly disappointing return for the favourites at 26% for a win & 55% for win /place i am considering laying these 3yo's for the month, i suppose this may end up in the systems thread but wanted to highlight it on here first. Key to this is that the horse has had no more than 4 runs & is racing in an all aged handicap Possibles today are: 2.10 Haydock Going for Gold 3.30 Yarmouth Iasia (may start fav?) 8.40 Newbury Shangani (currently 2nd fav)

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps 2.10 Race Going for Gold is currently 2/1 fav Handicap debut after 3 maiden runs, 1 run this season 3rd behind Hidden Brief at Newbury. Runs off OR 71 Main opposition is Princess rainbow at 3/1 or Prelude around 3/1 also Bet will be Going for Gold lay 2pts @ 2.84 BF

[fintron]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps interesting, will watch with interest

[stewartd14]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps Hi Rob, I hope you don take this the wrong way, as its just an observation. To me, there looks nothing out of the ordinary there that would make these favourites worth laying. If you were to add around 10-15% to the lay odds (realistic betfair odds), AND take off commission, you would actually have made a loss laying the favourites in 2008 using those results stated. Or am I missing something?

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

2.10 Race Going for Gold is currently 2/1 fav Handicap debut after 3 maiden runs, 1 run this season 3rd behind Hidden Brief at Newbury. Runs off OR 71 Main opposition is Princess rainbow at 3/1 or Prelude around 3/1 also Bet will be Going for Gold lay 2pts @ 2.84 BF

Going For Gold wins so we start with a loser. Oh well, based on last 2 years results, there will be winners & losers so we have to accept them. There isnt a great deal of profit to be had as i have analysed the above which shows if you laid at SP: July 07 - 12 races, 11/8, 5-2 & 3-1, to 1pt stakes would be +3.13pts profit (yield 26%) July 08 - 15 races, 9/4, 7/4, 6/5, 9/2, to 1pt stakes would be +1.3pts profit (yield 8.6%) will look at the filters which are currently - 4 runs or less (in career) - SP up to 15/2 - 5 runners or more - all aged handicaps - no selling races - no class 6

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

Hi Rob, I hope you don take this the wrong way, as its just an observation. To me, there looks nothing out of the ordinary there that would make these favourites worth laying. If you were to add around 10-15% to the lay odds (realistic betfair odds), AND take off commission, you would actually have made a loss laying the favourites in 2008 using those results stated. Or am I missing something?

yes i would need to consider the higher odds & commission. I am trying to seek out where the value stands. Those making their hadicap debuts at short prices are what i am after taking on.

[fintron]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

yes i would need to consider the higher odds & commission. I am trying to seek out where the value stands. Those making their hadicap debuts at short prices are what i am after taking on.

An alternative to quoting lay prices at SP+10% is to quote Betfair SP as anybody can take that price and its probably a fairer relfection if things. BSP's can be found at this link http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/timeform

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

Possibles today are: 2.10 Haydock Going for Gold 3.30 Yarmouth Iasia (may start fav?) 8.40 Newbury Shangani (currently 2nd fav)

I will take each race as it comes i think The other 2 listed above were beaten 2nd favs. Neither were placed. I havent got the stats for 3yo's generally, only favourites.

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps todays possibles Sandown 2.20 Sharpened Edge 4 runs to date, has already won on handicap debut so not a lay today Sandown 4.35 Alpen Glen 2 runs to date, has already won on handicap debut so not a lay today Sandown 5.05 Strathcall 7 runs to date so doesnt qualify anyway Interesting to see 3 handicaps all headed in the market by 3yo's! Doncaster 2.30 Battle Planner 5th LTO, 2 runs to date, already made debut in a hcap so no lay today Doncaster 4.10 Crime Writer LAY if start fav 3 runs, handicap debut, currently between 1st & 3rd favourite. Warwick 3.45 Jiggalong 3 runs, hcap debut, currently 3rd fav. Will look at tonights meetings later. I wanted to highlight all the possible runners to see how they get on.

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

todays possibles Sandown 2.20 Sharpened Edge 3rd 9/2F 4 runs to date, has already won on handicap debut so not a lay today Sandown 4.35 Alpen Glen Unpl 15/8F 2 runs to date, has already won on handicap debut so not a lay today Sandown 5.05 Strathcall 2nd 5/2F 7 runs to date so doesnt qualify anyway Interesting to see 3 handicaps all headed in the market by 3yo's! Doncaster 2.30 Battle Planner 2nd 7/2F 5th LTO, 2 runs to date, already made debut in a hcap so no lay today Doncaster 4.10 Crime Writer LAY if start fav Last 3rd fav 3 runs, handicap debut, currently between 1st & 3rd favourite. Warwick 3.45 Jiggalong Last 7/2co fav 3 runs, hcap debut, currently 3rd fav. Will look at tonights meetings later. I wanted to highlight all the possible runners to see how they get on.

an interesting day with 6 runners, 5 of which started fav & all beaten. Perhaps there is mileage in this! Perhaps i should just lay them all!! will keep posting them up anyway.

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps Tonights runners, lets see how many get beat again:ok Salisbury 7.35 Larkham possible fav, has had 5 runs to date, won on handicap debut Salisbury 9.10 Saharan Royal Possible fav, hcap debut, 3 runs to date This race also has 3 other 3yo's in it: Some sunny day hcap debut 3 runs Caster sugar 10 runs to date Sapphire rose 7 runs to date Haydock 6.40 Red Rosanna Possible fav, 11 runs to date also in same race: Mazzola 21 runs to date Haydock 8.15 Halstatt Possible fav, 2 runs to date, already ran in a handicap Beverley 6.20 Dark Ranger Possible fav, 11 runs to date Beverley 8.30 Suitably Accoutred Possible fav, 7 runs to date in same race: Astroleo 5 runs to date Beverley 9.00 What a fella 11 runs to date Chipolini 9 runs to date

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

Tonights runners, lets see how many get beat again:ok Salisbury 7.35 Larkham 3rd 13/8 fav:ok possible fav, has had 5 runs to date, won on handicap debut Salisbury 9.10 Saharan Royal Last 15/2:ok Possible fav, hcap debut, 3 runs to date This race also has 3 other 3yo's in it: Some sunny day hcap debut 3 runs 2nd 6/1:ok Caster sugar 10 runs to date 1st 15/2 :$ Sapphire rose 7 runs to date 9th 11/1 :ok Haydock 6.40 Red Rosanna 8th 7/2 JF:ok Possible fav, 11 runs to date also in same race: Mazzola 21 runs to date 7th 13/2:ok Haydock 8.15 Halstatt 3rd 9/4 jt fav:ok Possible fav, 2 runs to date, already ran in a handicap Beverley 6.20 Dark Ranger 3rd 9/4 2nd fav:ok Possible fav, 11 runs to date Beverley 8.30 Suitably Accoutred 10th 3/1 jt fav:ok Possible fav, 7 runs to date in same race: Astroleo 5 runs to date 3rd 9/2:ok Beverley 9.00 What a fella 11 runs to date 11th 20/1:ok Chipolini 9 runs to date Last 50/1:ok

13 3yo's ran in all aged handicaps last night 12 defeated 1 won @ 15/2 4 were favs all beaten

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps I will continue to monitor results Todays 3yo's in all aged handicaps 2.40 Sandown Crackdown 7 runs already ran in a hcap Mirrored 6 runs already ran in a hcap - possible fav Roman republic 4 runs already ran in a hcap 2.45 Beverley Mullglen 7 runs already ran in a hcap Kheylide 15 runs already ran in a hcap 5.10 Haydock Fivefootnumberone 13 runs already ran in ahcap Lucky art 8 runs already ran in a hcap Red Rosanna 11 runs already ran in a hcap 5.45 Haydock Block Party 4 runs already ran in a hcap Gassin 3 runs hcap debut possible fav River Dee 11 runs already ran in a hcap 3.35 Leicester Whooshka hcap debut 1 run possible fav Mrs Beeton hcap debut 2 runs possible fav Simpliifcation 6 runs already ran in hcap Visite Royale 3 runs hcap debut (2nd fav) Mejala 5 runs already ran in hcap 4.10 Leicester Key signature 9 runs already ran in a hcap 8.20 Nottingham Gilden age 6 runs already ran in a hcap 9.20 Nottingham Night knight 6 runs already ran in a hcap Youve been Mowed 16 runs already ran in a hcap - possible fav Straboe 3 runs hcap debut Plenty of runners today & those where we have more than 1 runner is a concern however will be interesting to see how many go in. So far Selections 22 Won 2 Lost 20

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

I will continue to monitor results Todays 3yo's in all aged handicaps 2.40 Sandown Crackdown 7 runs already ran in a hcap 2nd 10/1:ok Mirrored 6 runs already ran in a hcap - possible fav 3rd 9/2F:ok Roman republic 4 runs already ran in a hcap 5th 6/1:ok 2.45 Beverley Mullglen 7 runs already ran in a hcap 8th 10/1 :ok Kheylide 15 runs already ran in a hcap 3rd 7/1 :ok 5.10 Haydock Fivefootnumberone 13 runs already ran in ahcap 6th 11/2:ok Lucky art 8 runs already ran in a hcap Last 33/1 :ok Red Rosanna 11 runs already ran in a hcap 1st 6/1 :$ 5.45 Haydock Block Party 4 runs already ran in a hcap 2nd 9/2 :ok Gassin 3 runs hcap debut possible fav 5th 9/4F:ok River Dee 11 runs already ran in a hcap 4th 7/1:ok 3.35 Leicester Whooshka hcap debut 1 run possible fav 4th 8/1 :ok Mrs Beeton hcap debut 2 runs possible fav 7th 5/1 :ok Simpliifcation 6 runs already ran in hcap 6th 11/1:ok Visite Royale 3 runs hcap debut (2nd fav) 2nd 6/1:ok Mejala 5 runs already ran in hcap 8th 10/3F:ok 4.10 Leicester Key signature 9 runs already ran in a hcap 3rd 8/1:ok 8.20 Nottingham Gilden age 6 runs already ran in a hcap 2nd 9/2:ok 9.20 Nottingham Night knight 6 runs already ran in a hcap 8th 14/1:ok Youve been Mowed 16 runs already ran in a hcap - possible fav 5th 4/1F:ok Straboe 3 runs hcap debut 10th 50/1 :ok Plenty of runners today & those where we have more than 1 runner is a concern however will be interesting to see how many go in. So far Selections 22 Won 2 Lost 20

Today 21 3yo's ran in all aged handicaps, only 1 won!! 6/1 shot Red Rosanna. 4 were favourites, all beaten. So far Selections 43 Won 3 Lost 40 :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps Sunday - no expected favourites from this lot Bri 3.00 Zebrano 9 runs already ran in a hcap Pokfulham 10 runs already ran in a hcap Bri 4.30 Golden Flight 5 runs already ran in a hcap Mystic touch 5 runs already ran in a hcap Ayr 4.40 Hosanna 6 runs already ran in a hcap

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

Sunday - no expected favourites from this lot Bri 3.00 Zebrano 9 runs already ran in a hcap 2nd 12/1 :ok Pokfulham 10 runs already ran in a hcap 5th 14/1:ok Bri 4.30 Golden Flight 5 runs already ran in a hcap 5th 15/2:ok Mystic touch 5 runs already ran in a hcap 9th 13/2:ok Ayr 4.40 Hosanna 6 runs already ran in a hcap Last 33/1:ok

5 losers today out of 5:ok As some of these are big odds, i am wondering if i should put a limit on the lay bet, say 20pts so 20/1 shot would be 1pt lay, 2/1 shot would be 10pt lay? This would limit hitting a big price winner ? Selections so far 48 Won 3 Lost 45 :ok Any thoughts?

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps Plenty of action on Monday Musselburgh 3.45 Blown it 8 runs, hcap Secret Venue 11 runs, hcap, poss fav Brighton 2.30 Elusive ronnie 18 runs, hcap Private Parson 11 runs, hcap 4.30 Venture capitalist 6 runs, hcap Green enndeavour 4 runs, hcap 5.30 Hayleys Girl, hcap, 5 runs Ripon 8.50 Regal Lyric 6 runs, hcap veronicas boy 11 runs, hcap Windsor 7.30 Olynard 6 runs, hcap Captain carey 11 runs, hcap 8.00 State banquet 2 runs, hcap Hip hip hooray 14 runs, hcap Three steps to heaven 6 runs, hcap 9.00 Admirable duque 9 runs, hcap Onemix 6 runs, hcap Royal Arthur 5 runs, hcap Wee sonny 5 runs, hcap Perhaps only 1 possible fav, & none making their hcap debut. How many can we get beat tomorrow. Personally i now dont back 3yos in these handicaps after the results of the last few days

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

Plenty of action on Monday Musselburgh 3.45 Blown it 8 runs, hcap 5th 12/1:ok Secret Venue 11 runs, hcap, poss fav 1st 5/1 :$ Brighton 2.30 Elusive ronnie 18 runs, hcap 12th 16/1:ok Private Parson 11 runs, hcap 13th 10/1:ok 4.30 Venture capitalist 6 runs, hcap 2nd 3/1 (2nd fav) :ok Green enndeavour 4 runs, hcap Last 28/1 :ok 5.30 Hayleys Girl, hcap, 5 runs NR Ripon 8.50 Regal Lyric 6 runs, hcap 7th 14/1 :ok veronicas boy 11 runs, hcap 4th 12/1 :ok Windsor 7.30 Olynard 6 runs, hcap 3rd 6/1:ok Captain carey 11 runs, hcap NR 8.00 State banquet 2 runs, hcap 3rd 7/4 Fav :ok Hip hip hooray 14 runs, hcap 5th 16/1:ok Three steps to heaven 6 runs, hcap 7th 25/1 :ok 9.00 Admirable duque 9 runs, hcap 5th 4/1:ok Onemix 6 runs, hcap 2nd 7/2 :ok Royal Arthur 5 runs, hcap 6th 50/1:ok Wee sonny 5 runs, hcap 4th 11/4 fav :ok Perhaps only 1 possible fav, & none making their hcap debut. How many can we get beat tomorrow. Personally i now dont back 3yos in these handicaps after the results of the last few days

16 bets today 15 lays landed 1 winner @ 5/1 Selections so far 64 Won 4 Lost 60 :ok any thoughts from my staking question yesterday?

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps Not many today & hopefully will post up the betfair lay price Ripon 4.00 Atabaas Allure 7 runs, already raced in a hcap Lay 7.8 Betfair

[fintron]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps Just seen your question Bowles, about laying to a fixed liability vs fixed stake. There are aguments in favour of both approaches I suppose. I have recorded a similar number of lays in my own thread over the past couple of weeks and I was turned off by the fixed stake route, mainly because of the amount of money you need in betfair to cover the liabilities. Take yesterday for example, you had 15 bets, and the money needed to cover that liability would be very large. Secondly, some of the successful lays have been large odds with SP's of 25/1 or 28/1. To lay them on BF you may have had to lay at 33/1 or 40/1 and if one of those was a freak and won, then that is a lot of work undone, possibly 50 % of the bank in one go. This is what you were getting at I presume. So for those reasons I now personally prefer the fixed liability route. I fix my max liability per bet at 10 % of the total bank each day, so would need ten losers to wipe me out completely, but the win % is 86 % I think, so I think this is unlikely. Your success rates are similiar to mine and although your odds have tended to be bigger, I suppose it may be worth finding out the Betfair SP's and painstakingly working out which approach is better, before the number of bets escalates and it makes more work. Have you considered only laying them up to a set amount too. My personal limit is 10/1 (and when I broke that on Sat i got stung) but I've read on here other layers have limits even lower than this. As these are handicaps, it wouldn't be a great surprise to see a big odds horse go in at some point, and I suppose laying to fixed liability is better equipped to deal with it. The only downside to laying to fixed liability is that when the big odds ones do get sunk, you hardly get anything back from them, but there is no right/wrong answer i suppose.

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

Not many today & hopefully will post up the betfair lay price Ripon 4.00 Atabaas Allure 7 runs, already raced in a hcap Lay 7.8 Betfair

Thanks Fintron, I will come back later on the subject Ripon 4.30 Suzie Quw 6 runs, already raced in a hcap Lay 32.0 Betfair

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

Thanks Fintron, I will come back later on the subject Ripon 4.30 Suzie Quw 6 runs, already raced in a hcap :ok 9th 20/1 Lay 32.0 Betfair

1st one was a nR, Suzie Quw was well beaten.

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps dig some more digging with Massey, this is the July figure since 07 for 3yo's in all aged handicaps, i have checked my selectiosn since the thread started & they are all included. Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	923	112	12.1%	86.8%	285	30.9%	84.2%

July 2007 Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	299	38	12.7%	91.7%	93	31.1%	87.8%

July 2008 Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	524	61	11.6%	89.4%	155	29.6%	84.6%

July 2009 to date

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	100	13	13.0%	58.8%	37	37.0%	70.6%

The 9 winners i missed were mostly at the start of the month when i had the filters on. The 12% average SR looks something to take on. Still looking.....

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps whilst digging for more info, i have managed to find where the 3yo's do have an advantage & will start from tomorrow a new thread on which ones to back:ok.

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

whilst digging for more info' date=' i have managed to find where the 3yo's do have an advantage & will start from tomorrow a new thread on which ones to back:ok.[/quote'] I dont think i have a choice other than to take this over to the systems page on ATR, so have started a new thread over there link below http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f75/bowles-3yo-handicap-system-87003/ Hopefully it will continue to be successful :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps Been meaning to post on this thread for sometime Rob. In the past this subject dictated plenty of my bets. I would put a line through all 3yos against their elders (bar maiden races*), especially before August. However I noticed during the 2006 season that this way of thinking was damaging. It seems to me that since 2006 3yos have fared better than they previously did. However bad their current record, I'm certain it was worse in the past. Thesesday I no longer "scrub" 3yo's in all-age handicaps. Although I will only back one I feel is very well handicapped/precocious etc. I now try and treat everyone on it's merits. From memory I feel 3yo's do better in all-age fillies handicaps. *3yo's in all-age maiden races have an 80%+ S/R :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps Is it all 3yos in all-age handicaps you are looking at mate? There was a 1-2 at Southwell today. The "2" was beaten fav though.

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps Billy, thanks for the interest mate I dont include the AW at all I have picked up a profitable system though on BACKING 3yo's in all aged handicaps albeit it will only produce about 12 bets this month which is already 8 days old! I do need good or better ground though!