Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps

[bowles10]

Been thinking about this one recently when viewing some of the ridiculous prices put up by bookies when horses have little or no experience but end up as favourite against thier elders. I have applied some filters & these are the results July 2007

Date	Race	Horse	SP	Position	£100 win	£50 each way
2 Jul 2007	8:10 Windsor	RUSSIAN EPIC	2-1	4/8	-100	-100
7 Jul 2007	2:35 Sandown	MUTANASEB	9-2	5/17	-200	-200
12 Jul 2007	9:10 Nottingham	GONGIDAS	11-8	1/7	-62	-114
16 Jul 2007	7:30 Windsor	ARABIAN TREASURE	5-2	6/8	-162	-214
19 Jul 2007	5:55 Folkestone	WATER MARGIN	10-3	3/10	-262	-230
20 Jul 2007	7:05 Pontefract	HYPOTENEUSE	3-1	3/8	-362	-250
21 Jul 2007	3:35 Newmarket	BEE EATER	5-2	1/11	-112	-100
27 Jul 2007	5:05 Ascot	FIFTY CENTS	2-1	8/10	-212	-200
28 Jul 2007	2:10 York	CIRCLE OF LOVE	15-8	6/8	-312	-300
28 Jul 2007	4:45 Newmarket	MARKET FORCES	2-1	1/7	-112	-175
28 Jul 2007	8:40 Salisbury	VENTURA	6-4	2/5	-212	-206
30 Jul 2007	8:40 Windsor	MONTJEU'S MELODY	4-1	7/13	-312	-306

Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	12	3	25.0%	74.0%	6	50.0%	74.4%

July 2008 Selections

Date	Race	Horse	SP	Position	£100 win	£50 each way
4 Jul 2008	7:35 Salisbury	MISSION CONTROL	9-4	4/7	-100	-100
4 Jul 2008	9:30 Haydock	MERCHANT OF DUBAI	11-8	2/6	-200	-132
5 Jul 2008	2:40 Sandown	MASAALEK	9-2	3/15	-300	-126
5 Jul 2008	4:40 Beverley	HERRERA	5-2	4/7	-400	-226
5 Jul 2008	8:20 Nottingham	HUNTING COUNTRY	9-4	1/9	-175	-91
10 Jul 2008	5:05 Folkestone	CHARLEVOIX	11-8	4/7	-275	-191
10 Jul 2008	8:05 Doncaster	LAMBDA	4-6	5/7	-375	-291
11 Jul 2008	4:55 Newmarket	COOL JUDGEMENT	13-8	3/15	-475	-321
11 Jul 2008	7:25 Newbury	HARALD BLUETOOTH	7-4	1/8	-300	-216
17 Jul 2008	8:10 Doncaster	PERSIAN SEA	6-5	1/8	-180	-144
18 Jul 2008	7:05 Pontefract	FLAM	3-1	5/9	-280	-244
19 Jul 2008	3:55 Newbury	HUNTING COUNTRY	9-2	1/16	170	37
21 Jul 2008	4:30 Ayr	INXILE	6-1	3/16	70	62
26 Jul 2008	8:40 Salisbury	TABLEAU VIVANT	9-4	2/5	-30	40
28 Jul 2008	7:40 Windsor	ORANGE PIP	8-11	8/8	-130	-59

Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	15	4	26.7%	91.3%	9	60.0%	96.0%

Combined totals Totals

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	27	7	25.9%	83.6%	15	55.6%	86.4%

[bowles10]

Re: Fate of 3yo Favourites in all aged handicaps a fairly disappointing return for the favourites at 26% for a win & 55% for win /place i am considering laying these 3yo's for the month, i suppose this may end up in the systems thread but wanted to highlight it on here first. Key to this is that the horse has had no more than 4 runs & is racing in an all aged handicap Possibles today are: 2.10 Haydock Going for Gold 3.30 Yarmouth Iasia (may start fav?) 8.40 Newbury Shangani (currently 2nd fav)