Curragh - 28/6/09

[mowgli77]

Curragh 4.20 1m4f Group 1 Yielding Fame and Glory starts as favourite and its easy to see why - 4 wins in a row followed by a 2nd in the Derby to Sea The Stars and trained by Aidan O Brien who has won this race 5 times in 10 years, including the last 3 years although when he has half the field in a race he should be winning these races. It is by no means a one horse race though so taking evens about the horse is not for me. Byzantine won a maiden and then finished last on both its next two starts, it's 500-1 and a no hoper, more chance of Elvis turning up at the Curragh riding Shergar than this winning. Loch Long is also 500-1, still a maiden and has failed to win races worth around 8k so far and looks outclassed and without hope in this race. Rockhampton is possibly O Briens 4th string, has won two lesser contests, both as favourite but looks outclassed in Group 1 company. May get a place and surprise a few. Drumbeat has not won for the last 8 races but has some form in Group races, the best being a 1/2 length second to Fame and Glory at Saint Cloud but it has been a well beaten 8th and 6th on its last 2 starts and looks exposed at this level. The Bull Hayes is a 50-1 shot and does not look like a possible Group 1 winner. It has been well beaten by Rockhampton, Sea The Stars and Masterofthehorse and there is no reason it would reverse form today. Recharge was beaten easily in the Irish 2000 Guineas and has only raced over 8f but there is not a lot of stamina from the sire Cape Cross (8.5f) and no reason to believe it will get a 1m4f trip in a Group 1 race, unfancied today. Golden Sword is yet another O Brien runner and it was 5th in the Derby but lost a few places in the final furlong. It has beaten Masterofthehorse over 12f by 2 lengths yet this one is 12-1 and Masterofthehorse is coser to 3-1. It was only 4th in a Group 2 and does not look like the stables main hope. Mourayan has been beaten by Fame and Glory twice already and has not run since finishing 2nd behind it by 5 lengths in a Derby trial at Leopardstown. Hard to see that reversing form even if it runs better than last time out. John Oxx's first choice now that Sea The Stars doesn't run and now tried with 1st time blinkers. Masterofthehorse looks to be the O Brien 2nd string and was 3rd in the Derby, only beaten 2l and only a neck behind Fame and Glory. It definitely gets the trip and could go close today. Has been beaten by Gan Amhras but that was over 8f on its debut. Interesting runner and possible winner. Gan Amhras has only raced once over 12f and was beaten over 18 lengths but did not act at Epsom and I feel that run has to be ignored. There is plenty of stamina in the pedigree and 12f should not be a problem. It was beaten 4l by Mourayan on its debut, then beat Masterofthehorse by 3l next time out. It was then 2nd in the Goffs Million, beating both Drumbeat and The Bull Hayes that both run in this race. It was 3rd in the 2000 Guineas but looked to be running on again at the end of the race and likely to benefit from a step up in trip on a track different to Epsom. There should be no shortage of pace in this race with O Brien adopting his multiple runners tactics. I can see the finish involving one or two of his horses but feel you can not write off Gan Amhras based on its run at Epsom when it just did not act on the track at all yet still looks progressive enough to warrant another chance. Mourayan has been kept fresh since the Derby trial and while it needs to improve to reverse a 5l beating from Fame and Glory at 10-1 it looks to have each way possibilities and has an air of consistency, not being out of the first 3 since its debut run. Sportingbet are a stand out 11-1 for Gan Amhras while other bookies go 8-1/9-1. Mourayan is 10-1 with the same firm but also with Stan James who go 1/4 odds rather than 1/5 odds. I'm not fully convinced by Masterofthehorse despite the pleasing run in the Derby and feel that at the prices available Mourayan and Gan Amhras are the value bets and Gan Amhras is one I see as a definite Group 1 winner at some point, possibly today. Suggested Bets: 10pts EW Gan Amhras 11-1 Sporting Bet 1/5 odds 1st 3 5pts EW Mourayan 10-1 Stan James 1/4 odds 1st 3

[skylark2009]

Re: Curragh - 28/6/09 Curragh 2.40 Seachantach 0.5pts E/W - Best price 11/1 with Paddy Power and William Hill The 10 year stats for this race indicate that it has been won by a 3yo no less than eight times and also J S Bolger has won it 4 times during that period. The weight carried by the previous winners indicate that a low weight should be preferred with 7 of the winners carrying less than 9st and only three winners above that. Put these together and it points to only one horse, Seachantach. He seems to be a progressive colt who is in good form lately, not being out of the first five places in his six outings this season. He won at 1M, 4 days ago at Naas winning by a neck from Prayer Boat. Negatives - His two wins are both at 1M, the distance today is 6F! He is being ridden today by a 10lb claimer, while Seachantach's 5lb penalty will be negated, the inexperience of the jockey may show through. 3.10 Alfred Nobel 1pt win - Best price 5/2 generally This is another stat based pick which is short and sweet. The trainer, A P O'brien, has won no less than 9 of the last 10 runnings of this race. His only runner in the race is Alfred Nobel who won LTO.