Massey Ratings Lay System

[DM99]

Looking at my disastrous day today with both of my lay selections going on to win their races, I realised that both of the lay selections were stupid picks and do not fall into my strict criteria. 4.00 Sandown - Royal Intruder. This horse had been turned out too fast after his last run. I know that horses who race twice in 5 days or less normally are race fit and the trainer wants to capitalise on their fitness and current handicap mark. This is bad for layers, and is NO BET. I never lay horses who are turned out quickly, except today for some stupid reason. :wall 8.10 Leicester - Dancing Jest. This is a prime example of allowing your emotions to get the better of your head. I posted more than one quality bet per day - mistake number one. I was still annoyed by Royal Intruder and I upped my lay size a little to recover some of the loss. In my original writeup I mentioned I had reservations about the field size. If any reservations then it should be NO BET. I layed it and watched the price steam in horribly - the market knows more than you do and if the market moves opposite to expected by your fundamental analysis then GET OUT. Naturally she led the whole way and won well. :wall How many sins of gambling were committed there? I still have a lot of faith in the method used to pick the lay bets. You do not need much of an advantage to make cash with lay betting but the swings can be bad. By writing down the bets I make here I think it will force me to be more disciplined and think about the rationale behind them. My BBOTD I have posted here are showing a small loss but the bets on my shortlist (which are not posted I'm afraid) show a good profit. The method is simple: find the horses with poor Massey ratings at odds 10.0 or less and lay them! It is a method so there is nothing set in stone. There are other filters, like the opposition must have had good ratings on some of their last runs, must have run over approximate distance and going etc. Also need to check for headgear, etc. Start with 100 pt bank, laying 1 pt on each horse. Real money but small sums. I will try and get early prices because I believe that these selections have a better chance of drifting. Also, if the horse steams in more than about 25%, then I know that the fundamental analysis is useless and will trade out of the bet. It is always better to take a small loss that can be easily made up with the next lay bet than to stick with a bet that is less and less value with every passing minute. The steaming rule does not happen often, but I assume that when the horse I layed at 7/2 steams to 9/4 in short order then someone knows something. the market is always right!

[DM99]

Re: Massey Ratings Lay System Selections for Sunday 14/6: 2.30 Salisbury - Olynard NO BET PRICE TOO HIGH, was