Stratford - Sunday 31/5/09

[Jonesy Knows]

The 2 National Hunt Flat races at the end of this card interest me today. 5.00 Attrapeur @51.00 Each Way Totesport It's significant enough for me that Sam Thomas chooses to ride this horse for a 1st season trainer in Boxhall. The trainer has only had 2 horses go so far and one won in a hunter chase at the end of April, Celtic Boy who won with a good deal of authority. Attrapeur has raced 3 times before in NH Flat Races but on softish ground. It's form hasn't amounted to much in those races, however it has showed up well and not been able to carry through with it's effort in the end. Today it has the cheekpieces on first time and looking at it's breeding suggests to me it is going to like this much faster ground being by Raintrap a USA bred horse who won 3 group 1 races the other side of the pond and it's best efforts were on the faster ground. Sam Thomas is one of the best NH Flat race type jockeys with a 17% strike rate over the last 5 seasons and here at Stratford he has a 33% strike rate. The price is just too big to me and it has to be backed against a field largely of horses who will be taking to the track for the 1st time. 5.30 Chaser's War @21.00 Each Way Boylesports Last time this horse lost it's irons after only going 2 furlongs on G/Firm going in a 1m 6F NH Flat race at Fontwell. It deserves great credit for keeping on the way it did in finishing 12 1/2 lengths behind the winner Paul Nicholls trained, earlier this month. Previous to this stand out run, it had not really showed in 2 previous runs however that can be largely attributed to the surfaces of soft going on it's debut and then the AW at Lingfield. The trainer R H York has a commendable strike rate in NH Flat races of 16% for the last 5 seasons and a 25% strike rate at this track. Again it seems rather too large a price considering the unlucky run last time, an experience that I feel will show it in a better light today. :ok

[Rainbow]

Re: Stratford - Sunday 31/5/09 harper valley 430 strat. 1 pt win. the race looks like it will be set up for him and he does have the form and ability to win it. should run a very big race and i think whoever finishes in front of him will win it.