tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 ***This system involves betting in play. I will post my original bets when I place them and will update the thread with any in play trades I make. This is a paper trial so I won't have any screen shots available*** I know this kind of system has been discussed in pretty great detail on the internet but it has me intrigued. I know all forms of gambling have an element of risk but I think that this could be profitable over the long term if the person using it has the discipline to cut their liability when the time is right. This system will be slow and steady, no get rich quick schemes here! The System 1) Choose a game that is available to bet on in play. There are loads of ways to go about this and I will have a look at a few of them. The first one I will try is simply choosing games I think will have some goals in them. 2) Lay the draw before kick off. 3) Back the draw after the first goal. By first laying the draw and then backing it after the first goal I will hopefully give myself a free bet with a small amount of profit (I've read that aiming for a profit of 1% of your bank for each bet is reasonable). This is dependent on a few factors that I will go into later. Possible Problems 1) If the "underdog" scores first early on then it is not uncommon for the odds on the draw staying the same or even going down. In cases like this it would be reasonable to trade out and take any losses this gives. 2) The score stays 0-0. In this case I would look to trade out if the odds on the draw drop to 2.0 or there is not goal in 75 minutes, whichever happens first. I will inevitably miss out on games that are decided by a late goal but because the profit margins are relatively small I don't think I can afford one big loss wiping out lots of small wins. I have seen backing the 0-0 and possibly the unders market touted as backups but I don't think the profit margin is large enough and any insurance could eat up all my profit. 3) One team scores and the other team equalises before the market has reopened. Meh, what can you do. Hopefully these occasions will be few and far between. Obviously if one team goes ahead again I'll back the draw as normal. Staking This is a paper trial, I will use Betdaq and Betfair to get the best prices before kickoff. I will set my liability to no more than 10% of my bank. This will put limitations on the number of games I can bet on at any one time. I haven't yet placed ranges on odds, some articles say only to bet on games where there is no clear favourite, some say only to bet on games where the home team is a strong favourite. At the moment I'm just going to look at recent form and come to my best conclusion about if I think there will be some goals. Starting bank will be 1000 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws 1. Man Utd vs Porto lay draw @ 4.70 Liability 100 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws I have tried this out myself at a few occasions, there are many pitfalls but can be profitable if you strictly follow a predefined strategy. Here is a bunch of things i learned the hard way: Choose your matches carefully, go for matches where teams are equally matched but highscoring, where you might get odds of 2.35-3.25-2.40 or something like that for 1-X-2. This way you reduce the risk of draw odds going down or staying the same since there is no underdog to score first. If one team is heavy fav (like in the one you choosed as #1), then it makes more sense (maybe) to "back the fav to win", and then trade out when they score 1st goal. Like you say though, this is a subject of many opinions. Clearly you can get really nice back odds for the draw when heavy fav scores first. ALWAYS set a tradeout time, i.e. if it's still 0-0 at 60 minutes, then trade out for a loss. I would say the this is the single most important thing, too many wait and wait, hoping for the last-minute goal. Sure, you will be kicking yourself when you trade out for a loss and then 1 minute later the goal arrives, but trust me, in the long run it's profitable. If it's 0-0 after 60 minutes then there's a reason. Trade out smart though, i found it better to trade out placing an equal loss on all outcomes, instead of putting the entire liability at risk should it end a draw, and breakeven on home/away win. You should NEVER risk your entire liability...! Backing the 0-0 for insurance on say half your liability, don't do it, as you stated, it will eat away at your profit margins, they are small enough as they are! And, finally, keep really careful records of your bets...! Best of luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunshine Avenue Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws not any mileage in all this, maybe 4% profit, if handled smartly. Variation, as Hooloovoo indicates is equal price games, but back both teams to win equal amount, instead of lay draw. Another way is lay the team U don't think will win, & back correct scores 1-0 2-0 2-1 the other team. All actins requir Betfair & software for greening up in profit. We don't need to be involved for the whole 90 mins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws ALWAYS set a tradeout time, i.e. if it's still 0-0 at 60 minutes, then trade out for a loss. I would say the this is the single most important thing, too many wait and wait, hoping for the last-minute goal. Sure, you will be kicking yourself when you trade out for a loss and then 1 minute later the goal arrives, but trust me, in the long run it's profitable. If it's 0-0 after 60 minutes then there's a reason. Trade out smart though, i found it better to trade out placing an equal loss on all outcomes, instead of putting the entire liability at risk should it end a draw, and breakeven on home/away win. You should NEVER risk your entire liability...! Thanks mate, I've read many times that trading out when things aren't going your way can make or break this system. I'll have a look at the games betfair have tonight and try and figure out when the best time to trade out could be, maybe it is game dependent but I imagine it is best to just stick to one criteria. not any mileage in all this, maybe 4% profit, if handled smartly. Variation, as Hooloovoo indicates is equal price games, but back both teams to win equal amount, instead of lay draw. Another way is lay the team U don't think will win, & back correct scores 1-0 2-0 2-1 the other team. All actins requir Betfair & software for greening up in profit. We don't need to be involved for the whole 90 mins I've said in my original post that this will be low mileage, in fact I think 4% would be a great result. I will continue with trading for now and if I can figure out a better way then I will move to that. I will keep an eye on laying one team and backing the correct scores because that looks interesting. Where abouts in Coventry are you? My mum and dad live there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws Looked on Betfair and only two games really have no underdog. One is a game with teams I have never heard of and the other is Villarreal vs Arsenal. I don't think there will be many goals in this game at all so maybe it is an opportunity to lay Arsenal and back scores of 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws ... try and figure out when the best time to trade out could be' date=' maybe it is game dependent but I imagine it is best to just stick to one criteria.[/quote'] I would say it IS game dependant, BUT if you must make a unique decision for every match then there's too big a risk that you emotions take over, you WANT that goal so badly, maybe if i let it run for just a little longer blah blah you know the feeling! Sticking to a predefined tradeout time have several benefits: You don't have to make tough decisions during the match. You don't risk your entire liability. You don't have to blame yourself if a goal is scored just after tradeout, because you just followed the system! Another thing about laying the draw: It is possibly a better idea to lay the draw in-play around the 10 minute mark to get better odds. The downside is if it's an early goal that shuts you out, but i believe the lower average lay odds in-play will compensate for the few missed opportunities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws Make sure you note the available price to either lay 0-0 or back 1+ goals, see which Lay&Backthedraw or 1+ goals gives a better result after say 50 matches. The difference is primarily in time management, with 1+ goals you don't need to spend time watching the match in-play. When i looked at this strategy i actually ended up with a better result on 1+ goals. That could of course be down to the selection of matches. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws Make sure you note the available price to either lay 0-0 or back 1+ goals, see which Lay&Backthedraw or 1+ goals gives a better result after say 50 matches. The difference is primarily in time management, with 1+ goals you don't need to spend time watching the match in-play. When i looked at this strategy i actually ended up with a better result on 1+ goals. That could of course be down to the selection of matches. Good luck. I was actually just looking at this. The main advantages are as you say, time management but also there will be a much larger selection of games to bet on. I'll run a trial alongside my trades (on the same games) and see if there is a difference at the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws Good luck mate. I've tried this in the past before with mixed success. Here's some threads that you may find interesting: Football - Trading the draw DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Backing/laying the draw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws 2. Villarreal vs Arsenal lay draw @ 3.25 Liability 100 points One of Villarreal's first choice centre backs is out with a broken leg and they lost 3-0 at the weekend. Teams are fairly evenly matched and I think a goal will bump the draw odds up a fair amount. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws Good luck mate. I've tried this in the past before with mixed success. Here's some threads that you may find interesting: Football - Trading the draw DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Backing/laying the draw Cheers mate, I'll have a look through. Hopefully I can pick something up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunshine Avenue Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws Hi Tomahawk I live Finham [email protected] Teams like Villareal in Champions league, invariably show a loss the weekend game before their champions league mid week game. Doesn't apply to the big squad giants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws Other side of the city to my folks. The live off the Binley road somewhere. I did look at Villarreal's results before their midweek games. They have done pretty well the weekend before their games. On two previous occasions they have conceded 3 goals (lost 3-0 and drew 3-3) the weekend before a CL game and have then gone on to concede 2 goals in their midweek game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunshine Avenue Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws Hi Tomahawk, yes, fair play to Villareal, have often monitored the sat or sun games of non high profile C.League teams, from start to end of C.League tournament, leaving out the likes of Barca Man U Arsenal L'pool ACMilan etc & came up trumps. Also backing spanish teams in UEFA Cup.. recent seasons, if not too time consuming, perhaps you'd be good enough have a look, if you have time/criteria. Cheers......Sunny Ps before Finham lived near Binley at Wyken :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws Good luck mate. I've tried this in the past before with mixed success. Here's some threads that you may find interesting: Football - Trading the draw I am famous!!!! I learnt a lot in that thread, although for some reason I never went back to trading the draw. I believe it is possible to make a profit however it involves a lot of time spent in front of the computer. Evenly matched teams is DEFINATELY the way to go, goals for underdogs cause massive problems. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws Hi Tomahawk, yes, fair play to Villareal, have often monitored the sat or sun games of non high profile C.League teams, from start to end of C.League tournament, leaving out the likes of Barca Man U Arsenal L'pool ACMilan etc & came up trumps. Also backing spanish teams in UEFA Cup.. recent seasons, if not too time consuming, perhaps you'd be good enough have a look, if you have time/criteria. Cheers......Sunny Ps before Finham lived near Binley at Wyken :beer I'll have a look mate, not 100% sure what you want me to check, clear it up for me and I'll see what I can do! Wyken I know well. Don't get back too often but like the place more now than when I left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws I am famous!!!! I learnt a lot in that thread, although for some reason I never went back to trading the draw. I believe it is possible to make a profit however it involves a lot of time spent in front of the computer. Evenly matched teams is DEFINATELY the way to go, goals for underdogs cause massive problems. Good luck. Haha, your thread was a good read. Having thought about it I agree with you on evenly matched teams, I really need to come up with a proper selection criterion. Time I have, a lot of the time my laptop is on and I'll be able to keep an eye on things whilst doing work and other bits a pieces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws And we're off to a flying start with Man Utd going behind to an early goal. At the moment the price for the draw is 3.35 which would give me a loss of £1.56 if someone wins. The price is still moving so I might leave it for 10 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws The odds in the Man U game show what happens when the underdog scores first... you layed at 4.70 and can back now at 3.45. What are your plans when this happens? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws 2. Villarreal vs Arsenal lay draw @ 3.25 Liability 100 points 1-0 after 9 minutes. Back the draw @ 4.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws The odds in the Man U game show what happens when the underdog scores first... you layed at 4.70 and can back now at 3.45. What are your plans when this happens? In a game where they score so early I'm happy to let it play on in the hope the favourite strikes back early. If after 30 minutes the favourites don't look like scoring I will cut my losses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws In a game where they score so early I'm happy to let it play on in the hope the favourite strikes back early. If after 30 minutes the favourites don't look like scoring I will cut my losses. You wouldn't leave it until the 2nd half? say 60-70 minutes? A 2nd goal from the underdog would be nice and that happened a few times for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws Man Utd have equalised, at the moment the odds for the draw haven't changed so I will keep an eye on them. If they fall to such a level that I lose 30% of my liability no matter the outcome I will bail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws You wouldn't leave it until the 2nd half? say 60-70 minutes? A 2nd goal from the underdog would be nice and that happened a few times for me. Thats a good point. I think a lot of this is going to be by the seat of my pants for the first few weeks. Hopefully by then I will have experienced most scenarios and will be able to cope better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws Thats a good point. I think a lot of this is going to be by the seat of my pants for the first few weeks. Hopefully by then I will have experienced most scenarios and will be able to cope better. How about thinking of a pre-determined strategy before the game kicks off? At least that way you will know what to do if x happens. A selection criteria prior to kick off should assist as well, IMO. Off Topic: Shouldn't this be in glory hunters section as there is no strartegy how games are selected and bets will be placed in-running? I know its a paper trial, but GH is probably the best place for it and im sure the other draw trading threads were in there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws I had an idea of what I wanted to do which was to trade off when the backing odds means I will lose 30% of my liability. Which for the Man Utd game will happen when the odds drop to 2.23. I don't know where this should be placed, I'll leave it for the mods to decide :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws There definitely looks to be another goal in the Man Utd game. Whether is comes before I have to bail is another thing. Price is currently 2.62 and I think I have another 10-15 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws 1. Man Utd vs Porto lay draw @ 4.70 1-1 back draw @ 2.23 57 points Liability 32-36 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunshine Avenue Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Trading Draws Shocked by Man U, expected a doddle. They have big finish, though. If not too much hassle, look at spanish teams results in UEFA Cup, last 3 seasons, don't bother if take too long. PS used to go in Millpool & Biggin Hall pubs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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