Help with # of games in 7.37% yield system

[hammes21]

Hey Ive been working on a system involving a combination of overs and correct score betting. I'm at 79 games now with an average yield of 7.37%. Just wondering in your experience how many games you should monitor before knowing if it's a viable system? I've heard some people use the margin of error formula, but I'm not sure what part of the equation the numbers apply to. (there is a margin of error of +/- 11% at 95% confidence level on a 79 game sample, but what does that 11% apply to? Is it the yield) Any help would be much appreciated.

[Ricass]

Re: Help with # of games in 7.37% yield system Trust me you need a lot more that just 79 games. I am currently backtesting a system for Major League baseball. 2008 season I was getting a yield 10.5% (approx 2200 games!). I got really excited only to find that 2006 and 2007 seasons got a -2% and 0.3% yeild. Therefore, you can't always find a system that will suit all games for every season. So my thoughts are that you need to look more at current trends so you can adjust your system slightly when the % starts going lower.