servecold Posted March 16, 2009 Share Posted March 16, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted March 26, 2009 Author Share Posted March 26, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings strugglin with excel soz it takin awhile but ive only managed to finish my prem table ok ive only done the spurs cheslea game as a back test so far but i started on the prem for the 4th apr arsnal v man cityELO%22.7236.2041.09 i would think most stats or sights would have this as a home win im in the prosses of making a goal predictor using poisson hope to get it done soon see how they compare bolton v boro ELO%24.3346.6029.07 probly go for 0-0 poss 1-1 here this was the spurs chelsea game ELO%32.2841.4526.27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted March 26, 2009 Author Share Posted March 26, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings i was askin a1e bout this as i thought it did quite well at predicting draws but once ive found away to back test it properly i,ll post the results up if i test 20 matches would i add the % up for the home column an divide by 20 the the same with the x an 2 ? i aint got a clue as to find out how well or poor it does at predicting games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 26, 2009 Share Posted March 26, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings Here's what my rolling ratings show: Arsenal - City: 1467.11; 1278.07; 84.08% Bolton - Boro: 1215.70; 1169.70; 69.86% Both fairly tight games. Arsenal getting the edge overall with Bolton an outside chance. [url=http://www.football-data.co.uk/downloadm.php] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted March 26, 2009 Author Share Posted March 26, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings 0-01-12-23-384.58124.3445.697.461.180.802.1913.40 1st time ive done out like this on goals but this is for the arsnal v manc city game oh an ive got the elo@ 1464-1330 with a bit of work i really do believe the elo rating may just work just not looking forward to back testing it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted March 26, 2009 Author Share Posted March 26, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted March 28, 2009 Author Share Posted March 28, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings really need to brush up on my excel premierships sorted in middle ov copyin an pasting for the championship stopped that to see if i could then link it up to my calc :wallhate vlookup at the mo (oh for any would be programmers dont leave a space at the end of a teams name) so wonted to find a site i was on that had a excel sheet for predicting goals which ive added to my calc (see last post) great i thought bookmarked an went to bed got up this mornin an me bookmark aint worked gutted as it had the formula for forcasting the home draw away percentages from goal averages the only 1 i copyed was for the draw(=(G8*G10+H8*H10+I8*I10+J8*J10)/100 which gave "27% for the blackburn game ive played around with it all day an cant get it to work out home an away ive used a calc on another forum which gives 30.0% - 27.4% - 42.6% the closest ive got to that is using=(100-C23)/2 for the home an =(100-C23)-30 for the away testing it on other games dont quite work but i got this for the bburn game GF%36.3527.3042.70 is thier a better way of doing this on excel cause mooching round google i cant find out but i did find this http://innovexpo.itee.uq.edu.au/2001/projects/s348234/thesis.pdf you dont have to download the pdf it opens in your browser wasted on me but thought id share it as someone might be able to use it back to google see if i can find that link :(:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted March 28, 2009 Author Share Posted March 28, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings it never ends:wall managed to get my calc to link up to my prem table woo hoo :nana great got a validation list with the prem teams in an when you drop it down an pick a team the total game,s +total home+away all update in a blink of an eye phew (started this xmas) also goals for average then i get down to my last 6 game,s an last 6 home an away dont have them in my table:@:cryhow do i get vlookup to do this ???? im using footballdata site to update from so its all in excel under these headings DateHomeTeamAwayTeamFTHGFTAG goin to check youtube out again :eek:lol can VL do this by date as i rekon thats how i,d have to do it? take care SC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted March 28, 2009 Author Share Posted March 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted March 29, 2009 Author Share Posted March 29, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings found this on mrexcel =SUM(IF($AW$2:AW444=AW443,IF($AW$2:AW444="H",IF(COL($AW$2:AW444)>=LARGE(IF($AW$2:AW444=AW445,IF($AW$2:AW444="A",COL($AW$2:AW444))),6),$AW$2:AW444)))) just get a #NAME where i gone wrong ???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 29, 2009 Share Posted March 29, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings can you upload the sheet, or a paste of part of the sheet ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted March 29, 2009 Author Share Posted March 29, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings <?xml:namespace prefix = v ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" /><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted March 29, 2009 Author Share Posted March 29, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings DateHomeTeamAwayTeamFTHGFTAG FTR9.8.08BirminghamSheffield United10 H9.8.08BlackpoolBristol City01 A9.8.08CardiffSouthampton21 H9.8.08CharltonSwansea20 H not sure which column to use the date starts in AR with FTR in AW but should i be using the home column and the away? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted March 30, 2009 Author Share Posted March 30, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings here is a starter - it looks up home team's goals scored for last 3 matches. feel free to adapt and enlarge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted March 31, 2009 Author Share Posted March 31, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings thanks muppet i,d never come up with summut like that :ok i,ll post a pic when i,ve done:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted April 6, 2009 Author Share Posted April 6, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings hmm just spent the last 20mins rightin up a report on the champ game (not that my 1st effort did any good:loon) for tuesday night an the dam thing had booted me out anyway i've gone for sheff utd 1 watford 1 palace X thanks again for that muppet but i've chopped an change my sheet's to many time's over the last few weeks so im going to have to re-design them again so it works properly wait till season over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted April 6, 2009 Author Share Posted April 6, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted April 8, 2009 Author Share Posted April 8, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted April 8, 2009 Author Share Posted April 8, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings just found out pool got beat so i'm adding x1 to thier line as the draw is 56% an i think thiers a good chance of this now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted April 9, 2009 Author Share Posted April 9, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings forgot to add my betting plan sorry i will be picking 3 yankee's home away draw keeping the stake low proberly between .10p-.30p my picks are the shaded bit in the team names last weeks results (soz b4 games played in future) 04.Apr 2009 10:22 595/539 0.25 W Yankee Match Betting Chesterfield 2.10 Lost Cheltenham v Leyton Orient : Match Betting Leyton Orient 2.50 Won Colchester v Leeds : Match Betting Leeds 2.25 Won Oldham v Peterborough : Match Betting Peterborough 2.38 Won £2.75 return £7.58 QPR v Crystal Palace : Match Betting Qpr 2.25 Lost Won 2.75 return 0.80 Bolton v Middlesbrough : Match Betting Bolton 2.05 Won MK Dons v Brighton : Match Betting Mk Dons 1.57 Won Gillingham v Barnet : Match Betting Gillingham 1.67 Lost Patent Blackburn v Tottenham : Match Betting Draw 3.20 Lost Won 3.50 return 1.65 Hull v Portsmouth : Match Betting Draw 3.30 Won Southampton v Charlton : Match Betting Draw 3.50 Lost once i find a better way to tidy this up it will look better honest dont know why i did a patent 4 the draws but it will be all yankees from now on :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted April 10, 2009 Author Share Posted April 10, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings Crewe v Hartlepool : Match Betting Crewe 2.25 Stoke City v Newcastle : Match Betting Stoke City 2.38 Open Chester v Macclesfield : Match Betting Chester 2.38 Open Leeds v Stockport : Match Betting Leeds 1.50 Open £0.25 £2.75 return £20.83 Middlesbrough v Hull City : Match Betting Draw 3.30 Open Open Crystal Palace v Cardiff City : Match Betting Draw 3.30 Open Sheff Wed v Derby : Match Betting Draw 3.30 Open Brentford v Exeter : Match Betting Draw 3.25 Open £0.25 £2.75 return £80.33 Barnet v Bournemouth : Match Betting Bournemouth 2.75 Open Walsall v Tranmere : Match Betting Tranmere 2.50 Open Hereford v Leicester : Match Betting Leicester 1.62 Open Charlton v Birmingham : Match Betting Birmingham 2.00 Open £0.25 £2.75 return £23.32 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted April 10, 2009 Author Share Posted April 10, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilkBC Posted November 1, 2009 Share Posted November 1, 2009 Re: form guide + ELO ratings Here's what my rolling ratings show: Arsenal - City: 1467.11; 1278.07; 84.08% Bolton - Boro: 1215.70; 1169.70; 69.86% Both fairly tight games. Arsenal getting the edge overall with Bolton an outside chance. How are you calculating the percentage chance for a home win from the ratings? Thanks! :-) -SilkBC *EDIT* Never mind, i saw another thread of yours, and it seems you calculate the "Win Expectancy" thusly: dr = (sRating1 + 100) - sRating2 We = 1 / (1 + 10^(-dr / 400)) I confirmed it spits out the same results, so thanks! :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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