Odds Alone

[Paul176]

Hello everyone. I'm fairly new to the PL but I've been meaning to look at something like this for some time so I felt I may as well share it with everyone. I've read through a lot of of the systems in here and have enjoyed doing so. One thing I do feel is often missed however is the importance of odds. Getting better odds can easily be the difference between a small loss overall or a healty looking yeild figure. My 'system' will therefore be based entirely around odds. It is similar in many ways to the rugby Quarb system however I won't be restricting myself to any maximum odds nor will I have a steady fast rule around how much higher then the 'consensus' odds the odds I take will be. I intend to use Betfair as a guide as I generally feel it is the most accurate jugde of the 'true' probabilities. I will use the Betfair football in play list to select the games which I use - an almost completely arbitary decision. I'm going to run the system with a 100 point bank with 1 point per bet. It will be live with a £50 bank. I'm also going to add a paper bank as if only Betfair had been used for these bets. As Betfair generally gives the best odds I hope any difference seen in the two banks will highlight the importance of 'shopping around' for the best odds rather then keeping all of the bank in one place. The last thing to note is that I'm not entirely sure how this will go. Even if a profit is achieved it would take a huge number of bets to be sure there was any serious 'edge' gained. Anyone who has ever exploited a blackjack bonus will know that the house edge will often not be apparant even after 8000 bets.

[Paul176]

Re: Odds Alone Alright here we go. Prices in brackets are the betfair prices to back. Day 1 Selections Minyor Pernik v Litex Lovech - Belgian Premier - William Hill 8.0 (8.0) Sparta Prague v FC Brno - Czech Premier - Expekt 1.65 (1.61) Sandefjord v Brann - Norwegian Premier - Totesport 3.0 (2.96) Nacional v Maritimo - Portuguese Premier - Coral 2.2 (2.16) West Ham v West Brom - England Premier - Skybet 5.5 (5.2) Its worth noting I'm not betting on every games only the ones where I feel the difference in odds is sufficient to warrant a bet. All with 1 point (50p) except totesport where minimum bet was £1 so I layed off the extra 50p.