Paul176 Posted March 16, 2009 Share Posted March 16, 2009 Hello everyone. I'm fairly new to the PL but I've been meaning to look at something like this for some time so I felt I may as well share it with everyone. I've read through a lot of of the systems in here and have enjoyed doing so. One thing I do feel is often missed however is the importance of odds. Getting better odds can easily be the difference between a small loss overall or a healty looking yeild figure. My 'system' will therefore be based entirely around odds. It is similar in many ways to the rugby Quarb system however I won't be restricting myself to any maximum odds nor will I have a steady fast rule around how much higher then the 'consensus' odds the odds I take will be. I intend to use Betfair as a guide as I generally feel it is the most accurate jugde of the 'true' probabilities. I will use the Betfair football in play list to select the games which I use - an almost completely arbitary decision. I'm going to run the system with a 100 point bank with 1 point per bet. It will be live with a £50 bank. I'm also going to add a paper bank as if only Betfair had been used for these bets. As Betfair generally gives the best odds I hope any difference seen in the two banks will highlight the importance of 'shopping around' for the best odds rather then keeping all of the bank in one place. The last thing to note is that I'm not entirely sure how this will go. Even if a profit is achieved it would take a huge number of bets to be sure there was any serious 'edge' gained. Anyone who has ever exploited a blackjack bonus will know that the house edge will often not be apparant even after 8000 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 16, 2009 Author Share Posted March 16, 2009 Re: Odds Alone Alright here we go. Prices in brackets are the betfair prices to back. Day 1 Selections Minyor Pernik v Litex Lovech - Belgian Premier - William Hill 8.0 (8.0) Sparta Prague v FC Brno - Czech Premier - Expekt 1.65 (1.61) Sandefjord v Brann - Norwegian Premier - Totesport 3.0 (2.96) Nacional v Maritimo - Portuguese Premier - Coral 2.2 (2.16) West Ham v West Brom - England Premier - Skybet 5.5 (5.2) Its worth noting I'm not betting on every games only the ones where I feel the difference in odds is sufficient to warrant a bet. All with 1 point (50p) except totesport where minimum bet was £1 so I layed off the extra 50p. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On/Vol Posted March 16, 2009 Share Posted March 16, 2009 Re: Odds Alone good luck and :welcome :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad Posted March 16, 2009 Share Posted March 16, 2009 Re: Odds Alone Yea good luck with the first four bets because your fifth bet will lose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted March 16, 2009 Share Posted March 16, 2009 Re: Odds Alone :welcome Paul - good luck with your system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 16, 2009 Author Share Posted March 16, 2009 Day 1 Results Day 1 Results -0.35pt Minyor Pernik v Litex Lovech - Belgian Premier - 0-0 -1pt Sparta Prague v FC Brno - Czech Premier - 4-0 +0.65pt Sandefjord v Brann - Norwegian Premier - 3-1 +2pt Nacional v Maritimo - Portuguese Premier - 1-1 -1pt West Ham v West Brom - England Premier - 0-0 -1pt Bank P/L -0.35pt Yield -7% Betfair Paper Bank P/L -0.56pt Yield -11% So small loss so far but with this kind of system its volume that matters. Seems you were right Brad ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 17, 2009 Author Share Posted March 17, 2009 Day 2 Selections Day 2 Selections FC Seoulv G-Osaka - AFC Champs League - Skybet 2.87 (2.46) Parma v Mantova - Italian League 1 - Skybet 8.5 (7.6) Arsenal v Hull - FA Cup - Skybet 1.33 (1.32) QPR v Swansea - England League 1 - Skybet 3.4 (3.3) I'm referring to leagues as Premiership for top tiers and League 1 for second tiers out of sheer laziness. The bold v is for a bet on the draw. Skybet all around for today then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 17, 2009 Author Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: Odds Alone Firstly thanks for the welcome. I'm going to talk a little about the motives behind this. If anyone has anything to add it would be nice and hopefully spark a bit of discussion around systems in general. Obviously one of the hardest bits about a system is somehow finding value. I hope this system will show that generally value can be found purely in obtaining the highest and slightly out of line odds. If I can prove this (statistically) then I'll move onto what I see as the next step in adding picking skills to gain value. Hopefully this will all illustrate the importance of selectivity. A lot of the PL systems produce huge numbers of bets. My thinking is that by reducing the number bets placed and respecting the markets price by only taking the system picks where the market suggests value yields would be massively improved. Any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 17, 2009 Author Share Posted March 17, 2009 Day 2 Results Day 2 Results +0.2pt FC Seoulv G-Osaka - AFC Champs League - 2-4 +1.87pt Parma v Mantova - Italian League 1 - 1-0 -1pt Arsenal v Hull - FA Cup - 2-1 +0.33pt QPR v Swansea - England League 1 - 1-0 -1pt Bank P/L -0.15pt Yield -2% Betfair Paper Bank P/L -0.87pt Yield -10% Staked - 9pt So a better day hopefully in profit by tomorow. The Betfair bank is taken with 5% commission. While I realise its obvious it will perform worse as odds are worse I'm just trying to highlight how important the price is as well as the selection. It also functions as a slight control as while I'm taking higher odds the odds on the betfair selection are not particularly low with regard to the general market price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 18, 2009 Author Share Posted March 18, 2009 Day 3 Selections Day 3 Selections Lokomotiv Plovdiv v CSKA Sofia - Bulgarian Premier - William Hill 1.75 (1.68) Stade Rennais v Rodez - French Cup - Coral 1.334 (1.32) Austria Karnten v Sturm Graz - Austrian Premier - Centrebet 3.3 (3.3) Saint-Etienne v Werder Bremen - Uefa Cup - Coral 2.5 (2.48) Ajax v Marseille - Uefa Cup - Stanjames 3.1 (3.0) There we go hoping for a positive yield after these. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 18, 2009 Author Share Posted March 18, 2009 Day 3 Results Day 3 Results -1.9pt Lokomotiv Plovdiv v CSKA Sofia - 1-3 +0.75pt Stade Rennais v Rodez - 2-0 +0.334pt Austria Karnten v Sturm Graz - 4-2 -1pt Saint-Etienne v Werder Bremen - 2-2 -1pt Ajax v Marseille - Uefa Cup - 2-1 -1pt Bank P/L -2.07pt Yield -15% Betfair Paper Bank P/L -2.92pt Yield -21% Staked - 14pt Well slight dissapoint there. Late goal in the Bremen game denied the system a positive P/L. This is a long thing though and I am confident it will at least break even given a sufficient number of bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 19, 2009 Author Share Posted March 19, 2009 Day 4 Selections Day 4 Selections Kettering Town v Oxford Utd - Blue Square Premier - Boylesorts 2.6 (2.54) Only one for today. Uefa cup matches aren't offering much at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 19, 2009 Author Share Posted March 19, 2009 Day 4 Results Day 4 Results Kettering Town v Oxford Utd - 1-2 +1.6pt Bank P/L -0.47pt Yield -3% Betfair Paper Bank P/L -1.45pt Yield -10% Staked - 15pt Well can't complain at a win! Just about getting the numbers of results up really at this point... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 20, 2009 Author Share Posted March 20, 2009 Day 5 Selections Day 5 Selections FSV Frankfurt v Wehen - German League 1 - Stanjames 1.83 (1.81) Amiens SC v Nimes - French League 1 - Betfred 1.91 (1.89) Stade Reims v Sedan - French League 1 - Ladbrokes 2.4 (2.38) Well three today. Tomorrow should be interesting loads of games on and not only does this give us more opportunities but means the bookies normally get a little slack and don't change the prices quite so sharply! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 20, 2009 Author Share Posted March 20, 2009 Day 5 Results Day 5 Results -1.17 FSV Frankfurt v Wehen - 2-1+0.83pt Amiens SC v Nimes - 0-1 -1pt Stade Reims v Sedan - 0-1 -1pt Bank P/L -1.64pt Yield -9% Betfair Paper Bank P/L -2.69pt Yield -15% Staked - 18pt Little dissapointing again but onto Saturday. I'll probably be including more then just the in play list as I have the spare times and there will be plenty of suitable games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 20, 2009 Author Share Posted March 20, 2009 Day 6 Selections Right here are Saturdays. I'm going to continue with using Betfair as my guide 'fair' price. Conclusions of whether this is accurate can be drawn after the bets mount up and this is what will be of interest Day 6 Selections Portsmouth v Everton - English Premier - BlueSquare 2.7 (2.64) Fulham v Man Utd - English Premier - Ladbrokes 1.5 (1.47) Stoke v Middlesborough - English Premier - Skybet 3.5 (3.45) Ipswich v Watford - English League 1 - Totesport 1.91 (1.85) QPR v Bristol City - English League 1 - Totesport 3.4 (3.3) Sheffied Wednesday v Swansea - English League 1 - Skybet 3.4 (3.3) Crystal Palace v Reading - English League 1 - Totesport 2.5 (2.46) Hartlepool v Millwall - English League 2 - Skybet 3.5 (3.35) Huddersfield v Cheltenham - English League 2 - Ladbrokes 1.65 (1.62) Leicester City v Colchester - English League 2 - Skybet 7.5 (6.8) Alright that covers the English leagues which I thought I'd go over as they tend to have comparatively liquid (and therefore presumably effective) markets on betfair. Going to go through the in play list in the morning. Fingers crossed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 21, 2009 Author Share Posted March 21, 2009 Day 6 Selections Kilmarnock v Motherwell - Scottish Premier - Ladbrokes 2.7 (2.6) Kocaelispor v Ankaraspor - Turkish Premier - Stanjames 2.38 (2.32) Arminia v Wolfsburg - German Premier - Stanjames 2.15 (2.08) Bayer Leverkusen v Frankfurt - German Premier - Stanjames 1.57 (1.56) Dortmund v Weder Bremen - German Premier - Totesport 2.6 (2.48) Stuttgart v Hertha Berlin - German Premier - Totesport 2.25 (2.22) Catania v Lazio - Italian Premier - Labrokes 3.0 (2.92) Roma v Juventus - Italian Premier - Ladbrokes 2.6 (2.52) PSV v Vitesse - Dutch Premier - Canbet 1.39 (1.38) Sparta Rotterdam v Heracles - Dutch Premier Expekt 2.2 (2.18) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 22, 2009 Author Share Posted March 22, 2009 Day 6 Results Day 6 Results -3.63pt Portsmouth v Everton - English Premier - 2-1 -1pt Fulham v Man Utd - English Premier - 2-0 -1pt Stoke v Middlesborough - English Premier - 1-0 -1pt Ipswich v Watford - English League 1 - 0-0 -1pt QPR v Bristol City - English League 1 - 2-1 -1pt Sheffied Wednesday v Swansea - English League 1 - 0-0 +2.4pt Crystal Palace v Reading - English League 1 - 0-0 -1pt Hartlepool v Millwall - English League 2 - 2-3 -1pt Huddersfield v Cheltenham - English League 2 - 2-2 -1pt Leicester City v Colchester - English League 2 - 1-1 -1pt Kilmarnock v Motherwell - Scottish Premier - 0-0 -1pt Kocaelispor v Ankaraspor - Turkish Premier - 3-1 +1.38pt Arminia v Wolfsburg - German Premier - 0-3 + 1.15pt Bayer Leverkusen v Frankfurt - German Premier - 1-1 -1pt Dortmund v Weder Bremen - German Premier - 1-0 -1pt Stuttgart v Hertha Berlin - German Premier - 2-0 +1.25 Catania v Lazio - Italian Premier - 1-0 -1pt Roma v Juventus - Italian Premier - 1-4 +1.6pt PSV v Vitesse - Dutch Premier - 2-0 +0.39pt Sparta Rotterdam v Heracles - 1-0 +1.2pt Bank P/L -5.27pt Yield -14% Betfair Paper Bank P/L -7.14pt Yield -19% Staked - 38pt Wow... it seems I have discovered the perfect system. You see what happens is one bookie senses a teams struggling but daren't go out of line with the general market so adjusts their prices only slightly but this in fact is a signal that the team won't win! I'm now going to lay all selections... Erm anyway poor humour aside a very bad day. I still (and anyone still following this will be sick of hearing me say it no doubt) feel confident over time it will show a small profit although its an uphill struggle from here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 22, 2009 Author Share Posted March 22, 2009 Day 7 Selections Day 7 Selections Liverpool v Aston Villa - English Premier - Paddy Power 1.53 (1.51) Manchester City v Sunderland - English Premier - Skybet 6.5 (6) Numancia v Gijon - Spanish Premier - Ladbrokes 3.4 (3.3) Bologna v Cagliari - Italian Premier - Stanjames 3.5 (3.45) Chievo v Palemro - Italian Premier - William Hill - 2.62 (2.58) Lecce v Atlanta - Italian Premier - Coral - 3.5 (3.4) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 22, 2009 Author Share Posted March 22, 2009 Re: Odds Alone Also as a side note does anyone know where I can find out a way of automating the selection process via excel? By that I mean just scraping bestbetting or some other site for the best odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 22, 2009 Share Posted March 22, 2009 Re: Odds Alone Got a basic one for OddsChecker could be tweaked to do what you want. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 22, 2009 Author Share Posted March 22, 2009 Day 7 Results Day 7 Results +1.65 pt Liverpool v Aston Villa - English Premier - 5-0 +0.53pt Manchester City v Sunderland - English Premier - 1-0 -1pt Numancia v Gijon - Spanish Premier - Ladbrokes 2-1 -1pt Bologna v Cagliari - Italian Premier - 0-1 +2.5pt Chievo v Palemro - Italian Premier - 1-0 +1.62pt Lecce v Atlanta - Italian Premier - 2-2 -1pt Bank P/L -3.62pt Yield -8% Betfair Paper Bank P/L -5.81pt Yield -13% Staked - 44pt Bit of profit today - good stuff! That sounds interesting a1ehouse. Going through the odds takes up a little more time then I would like as I realised with all the Saturday fixtures. Any help on how I can either going about creating my own or modifying your existing one would be much appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 22, 2009 Share Posted March 22, 2009 Re: Odds Alone Here you go - gets all English prem games, can be modified to loop through pretty much all the URLs from OddsChecker. Not spent too much time on it so it may be outdated (e.g. I've set the Bookies across the top for ease but have changed), but it pulls the odds for all the available games. You'll also need to set your OddsChecker odds to decimal for it to work then click the button on sheet1. If you need help, post away. :ok Check the thread here for updates: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f23/getting-data-oddschecker-82160/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 23, 2009 Author Share Posted March 23, 2009 Day 8 Selections Day 8 Selections Tromso v Rosenborg - Norweigian Premier - Expekt 2.95 (2.88) Dag & Redbridge v Brentford - English League 3 - William Hill 2.7 (2.64) Two wins and we're in profit (both 100% certs can't lose)! Thanks a lot for the scraper a1ehouse! I'll have a little look when I get a bit of time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 24, 2009 Author Share Posted March 24, 2009 Day 8 Results Day 8 results Tromso v Rosenborg - 2-4 -1pt Dag & Redbridge v Brentford - Postposned! Could be worse! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 25, 2009 Author Share Posted March 25, 2009 Day 9 Selections Day 9 Selections Portugal U17's v England U17's - Youth - Paddy Power 2.6 (2.3) Slask v Ruch Chorzow - Polish Cup - Boylesports 1.73 (1.67) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 25, 2009 Author Share Posted March 25, 2009 Day 9 Results Day 9 Results Portugal U17's v England U17's - Youth - 0-1 -1pt Slask v Ruch Chorzow - Polish Cup - 1-2 -1pt Oh dear. Another two losses... as I've already mentioned a genius laying system in the making. I'm going to persevere with this though. It has been shown a few times on betfair that over time the odds (perhaps not in the extemes like 1000 and 1.01) are 'accurate' and therefore by randomly backing (or laying) you will end up down by the 5% commission. Our odds thus far have had an average of 2.98 which is 4% better then the 'fair' odds of Betfair. The betfair bank currently stands at a yield of -19% obviously very low so I remain confident were just suffering from a small sample size and a little bit of swing. If we get to 2000 or so bets and were still down considerably I would say things get a little more interesting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 26, 2009 Author Share Posted March 26, 2009 Day 10 Selections Day 10 Selections Pol Warszawa v Arka Gdynia - Polish Cup - Bet365 3.6 (3.4) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 27, 2009 Author Share Posted March 27, 2009 Day 10 Results Day 10 Results Pol Warszawa v Arka Gdynia - 0-2 -1pt Heres hoping for an amazing weekend as another bet loses! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul176 Posted March 27, 2009 Author Share Posted March 27, 2009 Day 11 Selections Day 11 Selections Korea v UAE - WC 2010 - Bet365 1.83 (1.80) Wales v Finland - WC 2010 - William Hill 3.75 (3.65) Moldovia v Switzerland - WC 2010 - Boylesports 1.67 (1.63) Cyprus vGeorgia - WC 2010 - Boylesports 2.1 (2.06) Albania v Hungary - WC 2010 - Betfred 2.7 (2.64) Uruguay v Paraguay - WC 2010 - VC 2.25 (2.24) Argentina v Venezuela - WC 2010 - Boylesports 1.2 (1.19) Mexico v Costa Rica - WC 2010 - VC 1.66 (1.62) Trinidad & Tobago v Honduras - Skybet 2.87 (2.82) Well the WC qualifiers kick off lets hope if they can bring us some luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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