Spooner Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Ive cracked it, we will all be rich.... ...ok maybe not but let's give it a go, the idea of this is obviously backing the draw but only when the two teams in question odds are both 6/4 or over. So say 2.62 3.25 2.60 we will back the draw as the teams are supposdley evenly matched, therefore playing out a draw. Ive had some success with this, more draws then normal anyway. Haven't got any kind of stats for it. Will use any league in the world and stakes will be 1pt. Will post selections for tonight shortly. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! Bit late with tonights selections so I will start this off with tomorrows games, no cups games just domestic leagues. England 23rd Feb Championship Palace v Birmingham @ 3.40 League One Crewe v Yeovil @ 3.40 Southend v Scunthorpe @ 3.40 League Two Grimsby v Morecambe @ 3.40 All with SkyBet :hope:loon Nothing from any other league. :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! Bon chance, Monsieur :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! Merci, Monsieur le Président ? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! Hey Spooner good luck with this. I have been running a similar thread and the results have been very mixed with the last set of results pretty disastrous. My system involves selecting teams from leagues where the under 2.5 goals average is over 50% and goals per game average is under 2.5 and also where the average odds at Betexplorer for both teams is over 2.3. I have decided tonight to track games from the top 2 divisions in most European league (using the over 2.3 requirement only) to see if there is any edge to be had there but will probably wait until there are at least 250 selections before updating on PL but I imagine that a trend might start to emerge after 100 bets or thereabouts. How do you decide if a team qualifies as a selection, i.e. what source do you use for your odds over 2.5 and which leagues will you be or have you been using? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seepps Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! Hello Spooner, I've ran a backtest using your strategy and unfaithfully the result is not very encouraging. 1412 matches were selected using your constraints and here are the results Strike rate : 30.95 % P&L : -100,62 Yield : -7.12% I know it's easy to announce figures like that and say, "it will not work blablablalbla ..." but the problem is that i have a huge database (more than 100'000 matches, 1'000'000 odds, ...) and I'm not a statistician so it's hard for me to design innovative strategies. But backtesting strategies take me only 15-30 minutes depending on the complexity. For this strategy I had the results 15 minutes running the first query. I will try to jump to davidc thread to backtest it. Feel free to ask me further information, hope it doesn't discourage you ... cu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! :sad ok, that doesn't look good. Like I said I had no stats.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! :sad ok' date=' that doesn't look good. Like I said I had no stats....[/quote'] Just because it didn't work in the past doesn't mean it won't work in the future :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted July 26, 2009 Author Share Posted July 26, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! You're right Aldric. :tongue2 It's sunday night and I'm looking for something to do so and I have not had a punt on football for a while so lets resurrect this, Quite a few games in South America tonight so this looks an opportunity to do so. Stats after those four matches posted Feb. Bets - 4 Win - 1 Loss - 3 Strike Rate: 25% Yield - -15.00 Profit/Loss - -0.60 1pt staked on the following games: Brazil Serie A 26th July Corinthians v Palmeiras @ 3.30 Fluminense v Cruzeiro @ 3.30 Gremio v Sao Paolo @ 3.25 Chilie Primera 26th July Municipal Iquique v Everton de Vina del Mar @ 3.30 Uruguay Liguilla 26th July River Plate v Nacional Montevideo @ 3.30 All with bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted July 26, 2009 Share Posted July 26, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! There has been a lot of draws lately in Brazil mate so you may be onto a winner here, best of luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted July 26, 2009 Author Share Posted July 26, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! Hope so, I need to catch you on Sports-Punter. ;) 15/16 winning lays for you with odds no higher than 3.80, impressive stuff JJ. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyXS Posted July 26, 2009 Share Posted July 26, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! Good luck mate!! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted July 26, 2009 Share Posted July 26, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! Hope so' date=' I need to catch you on Sports-Punter. ;) 15/16 winning lays for you with odds no higher than 3.80, impressive stuff JJ. :ok[/quote'] Cheers mate, its all down to hard work and studying and not chasing losses. I'm doing really well on footy laying I just hope it continues. :hope We just need to catch ffallen eh? That guy is unbeleiveable, nearly at 1000pts for July :lol:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted July 26, 2009 Author Share Posted July 26, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! Ta Scotty. I've been saying that for a year nearly now, unreal isn't it. I don't mind playing for second as I can't compete with that kind of profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted July 26, 2009 Share Posted July 26, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! Ta Scotty. I've been saying that for a year nearly now, unreal isn't it. I don't mind playing for second as I can't compete with that kind of profit. You have to wonder if he actually gets alot of his bets on? I notice most of them are volleyball and if he is betting decent amounts then his followers follow in, surely the bookies will click on? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! Just the one draw last night so a loss of 1.6 points. Bets - 9 Win - 2 Loss - 7 Strike Rate: 22.22% Yield - -24.44 Profit/Loss - -2.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjuesju Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! Here is my stats about the topic. So the draw percentage in games where the odds for win for both teams are above 2.5 is 26.8. This is not enough I think, but I'm crossing finger. The data is from around 300 matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! Hi, I have a data set for leagues all around Europe going back 6 years. I have nearly 14,000 games stored. I can say that 1,747 games met the criteria and of those 512 finished as a draw (29.82%). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xinakias Posted November 30, 2009 Share Posted November 30, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! I have read most of the posts that are presenting some kind of system for draws. All of them have (moreless) the same result: apprx 30% Also with my system I get the same (average) result 30%.:cry Which is the same if you choose random all the games of a coupon for games with equal teams. Probably we are not yet doing something extra !!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xinakias Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Draw draw draw! Please check my proposal at http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/draw-x-only-93948/ I would appreciate your feedback ;) Xinakias Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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