Samba_SamPa Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Let's get another system going :lol Purely for the Premier League Darts. Using the belief that it is more likely a player wins by holding his throw in the final (of the match) leg, rather than breaking in the final leg, I am going to look at the markets on offer for each match each Thursday. The 'home' player in the tie, eg. Part - Taylor (Part would be home player), is more likely to win 8-5, 8-3, 8-1. The away player (Taylor in the example) is more likely to win 8-6, 8-4, 8-2. If the player I think will win is the home player then I will be looking to take that player to win on a -2.5 at most handicap. If I think the away player will win then i will be looking at taking -1.5 on the handicap. By way of satisfying my interest, I am also going to see how splitting stakes between 8-5 and 8-3 (or 8-3 and 8-1 in rare cases) correct score when I fancy the home player. Or 8-6 and 8-4 (8-4 and 8-2 in rare cases) when I fancy the away player I hope you follow :unsure lol I'll just go with 1pt Handicap bets, and 0.5pt Correct Score bets, and will keep records of each separately :ok Thursday February 5th Wade (-2.5) to beat Part (1.90 Boylesports) Wade 8-5 (5.50 var) & 8-3 (8.00 Coral) Why the Canadian Part puts himself through the rigours of transatlantic 'commuting' only he knows, but he has been off form and struggling, and Wade - who looked on the way back in the Players Championships - can take advantage with an opening day win. As he is the home player he is more likely to win to 5 than to 6. Odds for him to win are 5/8, but you can get 9/10 for him winning (-2.5 legs) which 8-5 would cover :ok Klassen v Jenkins - no bet King v Mardle - no bet Taylor (-3.5) to beat Barneveld (2.05 Extrabet) Taylor 8-4 (6.00 Boylesports) & 8-2 (12.00 Extrabet) Barney may well be feeling better in himself for using his old BDO darts, but Taylor has been in unstoppable form, pretty much since the latter stages of last year's Premier League, and I can't oppose him. He is 4/6 to win (-2.5 legs) yet 21/20 to win (-3.5 legs). Given that he is more likely to win 8-4 than 8-5, I have to take the odds against on the bigger handicap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: Samba's 'Follow The Arrows' System Thursday February 5th Wade (-2.5) to beat Part (1.90 Boylesports) Wade 8-5 (5.50 var) & 8-3 (8.00 Coral) Taylor (-3.5) to beat Barneveld (2.05 Extrabet) Taylor 8-4 (6.00 Boylesports) & 8-2 (12.00 Extrabet) Handicap System Bets 2 Wins 1 Losses 1 Strike Rate 50% P/L +0.05pts ROI +0.03% Correct Score System Bets 4 Wins 1 Losses 3 Strike Rate 25% P/L +1.00pt ROI +50.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 18, 2009 Author Share Posted February 18, 2009 Re: Samba's 'Follow The Arrows' System Not aftertiming - these were all posted in the Other Sports thread (this post http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f16/darts-premier-league-week-2-a-80164/#post1307768) last week prior to the matches. I was going to post them in here last Thursday, but forgot I was going away for the week :$ My bets for last Thursday Part v Barneveld Barneveld 8-4 (9/2) and 8-2 (10/1) both Boylesports Mardle v Jenkins Mardle 8-5 (8/1) and Draw 7-7 (9/2) both ladbrokes Taylor v Klaasen Taylor (-4.5 legs) (Evs) Boylesports Wade v King King (8/5) PaddyPower I took King outright, as, expecting him to win, taking 8/5 opposed to the 5/6 (+1.5 legs) represented better value. Handicap System Bets 4 Wins 3 Losses 1 Strike Rate 75% P/L +2.65pts ROI +66.25% Correct Score System Bets 8 Wins 2 Losses 6 Strike Rate 25% P/L +1.75pts ROI +43.75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 19, 2009 Author Share Posted February 19, 2009 Re: Samba's 'Follow The Arrows' System Tonight's efforts: Jenkins v Taylor: The handicap sees Taylor giving up a 4.5leg start, which is no real value given Taylor is throwing second tonight. But then neither would I be rushing to back Jenkins +4.5 at a best price 10/11. I do think The Power will win, and am going to split stakes between the two most likely margins - imo. Taylor 8-2 (6.00 var) and Taylor 8-4 (7.00 Ladbrokes) [FYI that Ladbrokes price of 6/1 for 8-4 is out of line with most of the rest of the industry - some go as low as 7/2. Indeed on Betfair it trades at <6/1] Barneveld v Wade: Tricky tie, both yet to win and Wade was crushed by Merv last week. Will he be eager to bounce back and show he is better than that (as we know) or will he be licking his wounds? Last seasons clashes finished in 2 x 8-6 wins for Barney in the League stage, before Wade took revenge with an 11-8 Semi Final win. That would suggest that taking Wade +2.5legs would be the sensible bet, but given that Barney has the darts so any win is likely to cover that handicap, I am making this tie a no bet. King v Part: Debutant Merv could hardly have got his Premier League career off to a more impressive start, with a pair of 8-1 thrashings to his name so far. This is only Part's second time in the League, and he came bottom last year, but he has also started solidly - holding the 2nd and 3rd favourites (Barney and Wade) to draws. It would seem, at this early stage, that the format suits Mervyn King - and the boisterous crowds aren't affecting him as it was thought they might. For that reason, and the fact the handicap is set at him giving up 2.5legs, I am making my selection the Englishman to cover the handicap King -2.5legs (2.10 Boylesports) Klaasen v Mardle: Another debutant in Jelle Klaasen, whilst Mardle is in his 4th Premier League and has yet to qualify for the latter stages. Both men have a draw with Jenkins to their name so far, with both suffering heavy defeats in their other game. Mardle produced a brilliant 160 checkout in the final leg last week to claim his draw. The layers make Klaasen the favourite here, but the -1.5 handicap mark is pointless if you fancy the Dutchman to win. I think it is going to be nip and tuck, and I am going with either player to win by 1 break. Klaasen 8-5 (7.00 Bet365) and Mardle 8-6 (7.50 var) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 19, 2009 Author Share Posted February 19, 2009 Re: Samba's 'Follow The Arrows' System Tonight's efforts: Jenkins v Taylor: Taylor 8-2 (6.00 var) and Taylor 8-4 (7.00 Ladbrokes) King v Part: King -2.5legs (2.10 Boylesports) Klaasen v Mardle: Klaasen 8-5 (7.00 Bet365) and Mardle 8-6 (7.50 var) Handicap System Bets 5 Wins 4 Losses 1 Strike Rate 80% P/L +3.75pts ROI +75.00% Correct Score System Bets 12 Wins 3 Losses 9 Strike Rate 25% P/L +3.50pts ROI +58.33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 26, 2009 Author Share Posted February 26, 2009 Re: Samba's 'Follow The Arrows' System Part v Mardle Part 8-5 [6/1 Coral] and Part 8-3 [12/1 Coral] King v Klaasen King (-2.5legs) [4/6 Various] Wade v Taylor Wade (+4legs) [Evs Skybet] Jenkins v Barneveld Barneveld 8-4 [6/1 Bet365] and 8-2 [16/1 Sportingbet] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 26, 2009 Author Share Posted February 26, 2009 Re: Samba's 'Follow The Arrows' System All correct scores were incorrect (arguably unluckily - both Part and Barney won as I predicted, and both won in line with the system, I just chose the wrong scores to go with). The Handicap System marches on relentlessly though. Handicap System Bets 7 Wins 6 Losses 1 Strike Rate 85.71% P/L +5.42pts ROI +77.43% Correct Score System Bets 16 Wins 3 Losses 13 Strike Rate 18.75% P/L +1.50pts ROI +18.75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted February 26, 2009 Share Posted February 26, 2009 Re: Samba's 'Follow The Arrows' System Some great results so far. I was on King to continue his impressive start. Good price on Wade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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