goalies_are_different Posted February 3, 2009 Share Posted February 3, 2009 Hello! I am new to the forum, and I find everything here very interesting and useful. Here is a small contribution to the subject of this section of the forum. I hope there are people interested in ice hockey, so here it is: Using some math (normal distribution and normal approximation formulas) I try to calculate my own odds for U/O and 1.5 goals handicap. I will post selections that seem to have value, no matter how small it could be. The odds I use for comparison are mainly from Pinnaclesports. I will try to do calculations on daily basis as the NHL games are played every day. The staking plan I will use is the simpliest possible. I will start with 100 units bank and will bet always 2 units per game. If my calculations show some profit at the end of the season I will post my calculation methods, otherwise we will consider my method useless. I hope the description of the system is OK with the forum rules. Here we go: FEB 03 Selections Thrashers @ Rangers: Rangers-1.5 2.46 (Pinnacle) Hurricanes @ Canucks: Over 5.5 2.17 (Pinnacle) Starting Bank: 100 Units staked : 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted February 3, 2009 Share Posted February 3, 2009 Re: NHL value hunter (NEW) :welcome to PL and good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sport guy Posted February 3, 2009 Share Posted February 3, 2009 Re: NHL value hunter (NEW) hope all go well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On/Vol Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: NHL value hunter (NEW) :welcome :cheers goodluck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goalies_are_different Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: NHL value hunter (NEW) Not an outstanding start, but a small profit is still a profit. FEB 03 Thrashers @ Rangers: Rangers-1.5 2.46 (Pinnacle) :( Hurricanes @ Canucks: Over 5.5 2.17 (Pinnacle) :D New Bank: 100.34 Strike Rate: 1 for 2 (50%) Profit: 0.34 Yeild: 0.085 FEB 04 Lightning @ Penguins: Penguins -1.5 2.35 (Pinnacle) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goalies_are_different Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: NHL value hunter (NEW) The Penguins are more than a terrible team :@ FEB 04 Lightning @ Penguins: Penguins -1.5 2.35 (Pinnacle) :wall New Bank: 98.34 Strike Rate: 1 for (33%) Profit: -1.66 Yeild: -0.27 FEB 05 LA Kings @ Capitals: Capitals -1.5 2.23 (Pinnacle) Chicago @ Calgary: Calgary -1.5 3.36 (Pinnacle) Anaheim @ Nashville: Over 5.5 : 2.27 (Pinnacle) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goalies_are_different Posted February 7, 2009 Author Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: NHL value hunter (NEW) FEB 05 LA Kings @ Capitals: Capitals -1.5 2.23 (Pinnacle) :sad Chicago @ Calgary: Calgary -1.5 3.36 (Pinnacle) :sad Anaheim @ Nashville: Over 5.5 : 2.27 (Pinnacle) :clap New Bank: 96.54 Strike Rate: 2 for 6 (33%) Profit: -3.46 Yeild: -0.28 FEB 07 San Jose @ Columbus: Over 5.5 2.03 (Pinnacle) Florida @ Washington: Washington -1.5 2.62 (Pinnacle) LA Kings @ Devils : Over 5.5 2.04 (Pinnacle) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goalies_are_different Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: NHL value hunter (NEW) FEB 07 San Jose @ Columbus: Over 5.5 2.03 (Pinnacle) :sad Florida @ Washington: Washington -1.5 2.62 (Pinnacle) :clap LA Kings @ Devils : Over 5.5 2.04 (Pinnacle) :sad New Bank: 95.78 Strike Rate: 3 for 9 (33%) Profit: -4.22 Yeild: -0.24 FEB 09 Rangers @ Devils: Over 5.5 2.29 (Pinnacle) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.