Systems and pitches

[georgej]

Just curious as i don't really look into football systems, but does anyone factor into their calculations pitch width? Just wondered how much of a difference this can make and if you are able to get the data. I'm still not gambling so just curious. Wasn't sure if it made much of a difference on the over x goals factors or something. (Unitl recently i actually assumed it was a set pitch size).

[Smokin Joe]

Re: Systems and pitches

Just curious as i don't really look into football systems, but does anyone factor into their calculations pitch width? Just wondered how much of a difference this can make and if you are able to get the data. I'm still not gambling so just curious. Wasn't sure if it made much of a difference on the over x goals factors or something. (Unitl recently i actually assumed it was a set pitch size).

Not sure that sort of information is available for all matches, so I'd guess you'd struggle to build it into a system.

[lunatism]

Re: Systems and pitches ...would make for an interesting research project "The Affect Of Pitch Width On Fortunes Of A Football Club", with the hypothesis being - sure, I think it WOULD make a difference. But the thing is, quality (not always of course) usually comes out on top, so you'd need lots of data in order to test it out (i say lots of data because top teams can usually overcome these difficulties, and you perhaps you'd just be looking at particular sides).... Problems that spring to mind are:

• can this really be tested - after all, some teams change their style and squad on a seasonal basis, while others will change after a managerial change
• i play football manager, according to this (which I sometimes mistakenly use a reference to the real world....although the claim to be based on fact, so it's *OK*) at the start of every season, the manager is asked by the groundsman what size pitch he would like for the season
• perhaps we can all remember a few seasons back when Chelsea were playing under Mourinho in the CL and the pitch was so awful that a championship side could offer something better? But Mourinho went without relaying the pitch deliberately for quite some time...with many suggesting the poor pitch suited Chelsea's style of play - so this suggests that although the pitch does seem to influence home/away teams, it provides the problem of "what if they relay the pitch mid season?"
• although it wouldn't be an automatic thing, I'm sure that current pitch widths (maximum pitch widths I could get for you) could be obtained from league websites, but being unable to automate this process, means that changes in width, might go unchecked
• what about length of grass? that would also make a difference one would think, would this be factored too?
• and another variable to look at - the weather....eg narrow (but long) pitch, very short grass, and wet. This would (I'm pulling ideas out the air here) probably make it extremely difficult for teams who play with width, and those who use long balls often too
• one (perhaps final...but i might think of another) point, is that one thing that seems to be *fact* with football, is that one particular manager will impose his style on the team, this could be factored in too. Instead of just looking at pitch width, you look at the usual style of certain manager, and then you perhaps have a table of all types of pitch, weather, length of grass, etc that would work positively for such a style, while all those that work negatively too. And of course you would need to take into account the fast that the great managers have different tactics/styles for different occasions, but for purposes of this you could simplify it just to two:
  • playing as the favourite (in league/national cup/continental)
  • playing as the underdog (in league/national cup/continental)

OK, seems like that's actually six, but I'm sure you get my drift.

• Fitness of teams and players - well this probably goes directly hand in hand with pitch width and length, after all, the wider/longer the pitch, the more "work" involved (well, would only mean extra "work" for the striker if it was a long ball team on a long pitch, but point made I guess), while the more narrow a pitch, the less fitness would seem to be a factor (rather then, the ability of the team to play "close football")
• Distance covered per match - there are stats available (somewhere) for this, the distance covered per player per team per match, and why could this be important? Because theoretically (my theory only folks...nothing special), a team who plays the short passing game, on a narrow pitch, against a team who has lots of running in them, is not going to be as successful if they were playing the same way on a wide pitch

So, in "conclusion", I'd say the idea could be a good one, after all i rarely think bookies take such things into account. But for blokes who don't want to do the extra leg work in terms of research etc, this will be the wrong kind of system....just to recap, if I was doing this system (which, now that I've talked about it so much, I'd love to give it a shot), I'd be looking at: Pitch - width, length (and whether had under soil heating...which makes a difference on cold days...naturally) Grass - length Fitness of team - are they athletes at peak of health, can they chase all around the pitch? Weather - a BIG factor in determining how successful a team will be, obviously plays a bigger role when the teams are closely matched Distance covered - do the team have players who DO make a lot of runs Manager style/Tactics - certain pitch related variables will benefit or hinder certain managers, ever wonder why supposedly good teams frequently have difficulties against lesser opposition in cup games? (aside from the "resting" of players and other such nonsense)....could be down to the different styles coming up against different pitch types (types they aren't used to encountering in their league) In order to get all that information, you would most likely need: Database of manager style/tactics, cross referenced with pitch/weather related variables Regular weather updates To be in contact with somebody at each club (groundsman) Fair knowledge of the leagues you're dealing with *Access to something akin to ProZone Some historical data, which gives (at least) the formation a squad was using on any given match day (obviously this can change throughout the game, but no need to go TOOOO FAR into this :lol) * reason this is starred, is because it's one of the lesser points, and could be dodged I suppose (although if I was doing this seriously, i would definitely make sure I was doing all of the things I've mentioned) So Georgej, in my opinion, you've come across a novel idea, but one that would involve a lot of work (in order to be as accurate as possible as therefore as successful as possible) - definitely only something for the guy with lots of time on his hands, and a great deal of dedication too. I would be extremely interested in forming a partnership with anybody willing to try out this idea, looks to have potential. And there are a lot of things that I have access to that would provide invaluable for such a system/project (plus, there's all this free time I have, which is handy).....so that invitation is (of course) open to YOU Georgej and anybody else that feels they have the know how to embark on such an adventure..... To boldy go and all that :tongue2

[happygooner]

Re: Systems and pitches

Chapter 2 Where loon begins to watch the grass grow and finally loses the plot:tongue2

[lunatism]

Re: Systems and pitches

Chapter 2 Where loon begins to watch the grass grow and finally loses the plot:tongue2

So uninformed - it's borderline shocking Goon....or perhaps I never mentioned my grass-grow watching hobby I adopted back when I was back in the institute :D

[lunatism]

Re: Systems and pitches

....loses the plot:tongue2

since i'm at the top of the game (concerning grass related anything)...was that by any chance a pun? good show sir :notworthy

[georgej]

Re: Systems and pitches Well, at least yo udidn't point and laugh. I just though if there was a weak defence then this would enable them to be exploted more and such games would be higher scoring and hopefully you'd get better odds than were warrented. Didn't put anywhere near as much thought into it a you lunatism. Kinda makes me feel a little blown away by it all. I'll keep trying to think outside the box though. (by the way, did you notice how many puddles...)

[lunatism]

Re: Systems and pitches

Well' date=' at least you didn't point and laugh[/quote'] Wouldn't dream of laughing at such a novel idea! To me it really does seem like it could work....but all theoretical of course, would take some time to do the initial setup When looking into different ideas for systems - i always find it's better to start with a bigger list of variables and whittle it down (based on how each variable affects results over time) rather than vice versa, so just being proactive and making said list early ;)

[joberts]

Re: Systems and pitches I believe that Stoke have brought the width of their pitch in this season to take advantage of Delap's long throws. Also, Bolton used to vary their pitch width for European games under Sam Allerdyce.