Samba_SamPa Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Simple system, don't know what staking I am going to use yet, this is just a paper trial to see the viability of it, so, for arguments sake, I will just use 1pt a selection for now. Basically, matches are selected as draws where the reverse fixture earlier in the season resulted in a 1-goal victory to the home side (so the side that is away now). Today's qualifiers Preston - Sheff Utd 3.40 var Brighton - Hartlepool 3.40 var Millwall - Scunthorpe 3.40 var Morecambe - Port Vale 3.50 Ladbrokes And tomorrow will be Newcastle - Sunderland 3.40 SkyBet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System Going well at HT, with 3 out of 4 drawing..... good luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System Two VERY late goals robbed you of a Full-House..... but 2 out of 4 is an excellent start, Samba....:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System Preston - Sheff Utd 3.40 var Brighton - Hartlepool 3.40 var Millwall - Scunthorpe 3.40 var Morecambe - Port Vale 3.50 Ladbrokes Cheers Grex, HOW close was that :cry Bets 4 Wins 2 Strike Rate 50% Staked 4 Returns 6.90 P/L +2.90 ROI +72.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System Excellent results again but I don't know why I'm surprised about any thing you post anymore samba:clap Good luck for your next load:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 1, 2009 Author Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System Newcastle - Sunderland 3.40 SkyBet :cow Bets 5 Wins 3 Strike Rate 60% Staked 5 Returns 10.3 P/L +5.3 ROI +106% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 1, 2009 Author Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System Monday 2nd Feb Bradford x Darlington 3.40 Betfred :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 2, 2009 Author Share Posted February 2, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System Tuesday 3rd Feb Preston - Plymouth 3.75 Boylesports Sheff Wed - Barnsley 3.40 var Crewe - Yeovil 3.40 Betfred/Paddy Power Northampton - Swindon 3.50 Boylesports Shrewsbury - Accrington 3.75 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 3, 2009 Author Share Posted February 3, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System Monday 2nd Feb Bradford x Darlington 3.40 Betfred :hope Postponed :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System Tuesday 3rd Feb Preston - Plymouth 3.75 Boylesports Sheff Wed - Barnsley 3.40 var Crewe - Yeovil 3.40 Betfred/Paddy Power Northampton - Swindon 3.50 Boylesports Shrewsbury - Accrington 3.75 Bet365 1 winner, 1 loser and 3 Postponed. Bets 7 Wins 4 Strike Rate 57.14% Staked 7 Returns 14.05 P/L +7.05 ROI +100.71% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System Time to see how Overseas matches do, applying the same criteria Will keep the stats separate, GB stats and ROW stats: RoW Wednesday 4th Feb 2009 Feyenoord x Sparta 4.500 Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System nice start samba :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System Time to see how Overseas matches do, applying the same criteria Will keep the stats separate, GB stats and ROW stats: RoW Wednesday 4th Feb 2009 Feyenoord x Sparta 4.500 Pinnacle 1-0 to Feyenoord, so stats easy for now, will put them down in black and white after the weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 6, 2009 Author Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System There's 12 in England over the weekend, and following some backtesting work done by Lunatism that has cast serious doubts on the profitability of the system, I'm reluctant to continue if it is to provide a loss over time. That said, I will stick the 12 up, and we'll see how it goes. If we're still in profit after the 12 I'll continue, but if this weekend is the one that proves the backtesting to be correct, then there's little point continuing with such evidence disproving my system :hope Blackburn - Aston Villa 3.40 Totesport Sunderland - Stoke 3.50 var West Brom - Newcastle 3.40 var Portsmouth - Liverpool 3.60 William Hill Sheffield Utd - Sheffield Wed 3.50 Skybet Coventry - Wolves 3.40 var Norwich - Bristol City 3.40 var Nottingham Forest - QPR 3.40 Skybet Plymouth - Derby 3.40 Skybet Reading - Preston 3.75 var Swindon - Southend 3.50 PaddyPower Port Vale - Aldershot 3.40 var Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 10, 2009 Author Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System Blackburn - Aston Villa 3.40 Totesport Sunderland - Stoke 3.50 var West Brom - Newcastle 3.40 var Portsmouth - Liverpool 3.60 William Hill Sheffield Utd - Sheffield Wed 3.50 Skybet Coventry - Wolves 3.40 var Norwich - Bristol City 3.40 var Nottingham Forest - QPR 3.40 Skybet Plymouth - Derby 3.40 Skybet Reading - Preston 3.75 var Swindon - Southend 3.50 PaddyPower Port Vale - Aldershot 3.40 var 2 winners, 2 postponed and 8 losers (including 1 last min winner, and 1 last min penalty miss for a draw :sad) Bets 17 Wins 6 Strike Rate 35.29% Staked 17 Returns 21.20 P/L +4.20 ROI +24.71% Not the best, though unlucky again on a couple of occasions. I am sure however that there'd be plenty last minute equalisers over time. As it is, with Lunatism's backtesting suggesting even the 35% ROI isn't sustainable (I think we looked at an average of 28-30%), I am going to bale with a profit, and come up with another harebrained idea for a long term winning system :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 10, 2009 Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System **Ended With Slight Profit** i wish you the best of luck with any of your future projects, and i'll always be at hand if you need any further backtesting done.....is a shame the backtesting on this one didn't turn out so good....there'll be more!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 10, 2009 Author Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System **Ended With Slight Profit** Cheers mate, much appreciated. I'll pester you soon enough I'm sure :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zorzak Posted February 10, 2009 Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System **Ended With Slight Profit** Good luck Samba I'm really interested in this one :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 10, 2009 Author Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: Samba's 'OverDrawn' System **Ended With Slight Profit** Good luck Samba I'm really interested in this one :hope Cheers mate. HOWEVER following backtesting it has been proven not to be a profitable system, so the plug has, as they say, been pulled, sorry! Back soon with a whole load of other weird and wonderful ideas ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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