jonnyb1978 Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 From picking selctions on value. Each set of bets will amount to 5% of the bank. A starting bank of £500 (You should never lose this)so first set of bet will a total of £25.00. On paper i have worked the team value in order and used a percentage stake but for here a will use level stakes to monitor this aswell. Average of all bets will be above 2.0 so a 50% strike rate should be profitable. Sampdoria @ 1.99 Volladolid @ 2.15 Cagliari @ 2.32 £8.33 on each bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On/Vol Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Good Luck :D:D :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted January 18, 2009 Author Share Posted January 18, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Sampdoria @ 1.99:$ Volladolid @ 2.15:$ Cagliari @ 2.32:ok £8.33 on each bet Returns of £19.32 Bets : 3 Won : 1 Lost : 2 Profit : -5.68 Will be changing the staking plan to 5% of bank is bet on each team. Also done Man City so im happy with the start but have not included them here as the result was known before i posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted January 21, 2009 Author Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Value Predictions 25% of bank on each bet. Prices taken at Betfair for easyness. The above were best odds available. Selections up to and including 26th Palermo @ 2.02 Milan @ 1.76 Napoli @ 2.86 Siena @ 2.44 Total £24.75 on each = £99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Value Predictions How is 25% of bank = £24.75? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted January 21, 2009 Author Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Value Predictions How is 25% of bank = £24.75? Because i lost 5.68 on the first set of bets. Instead of using odd pennies i just rounded it up to 35% of £495. Sorry, guess i should of said that i will round bank upwards to the next pound. Ive also just deleted 2 bets playing next week as dont want them confused with the FA cup. So just the 4 bets this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zoroaster Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Value Predictions How is 25% of bank = £24.75? It's a typo - he means 5%. Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Oki, typo it is. I have no problem with rounding :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted January 21, 2009 Author Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Lol yes its a typo. It should be 5%. I notice i even done it again saying 35%. Im at work and trying to do 10 things at one go..Sorry guys!! Thats 5% of bank:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted January 25, 2009 Author Share Posted January 25, 2009 Re: Value Predictions 25% of bank on each bet. Prices taken at Betfair for easyness. The above were best odds available. Selections up to and including 26th Palermo @ 2.02 :ok Milan @ 1.76 :ok Napoli @ 2.86 :$ Siena @ 2.44 :ok Total £24.75 on each = £99 Bets : 7 Won : 4 Lost : 3 S/R : 57.14 Total Bet : 123.99 Rtns : 173.28 Profit : 49.27 Profit Minus comission : 47.00 Yield : 37.91 New book : 547.00 Next bets : 27.35 The first set of bets the odds where not taken at betfair so have included the commission on the whole profit so far as im going to use Betfairs odd from now on. In all a good set of results today with good odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted January 25, 2009 Author Share Posted January 25, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Selections up to 28.01.09 Man Utd to beat West Brom @ 1.38 Liverpool to beat Wigan @ 1.91 Villa to beat Portsmouth @ 2.36 3 bets at 27.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted January 26, 2009 Author Share Posted January 26, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Another 2 bets to add over the weekend ITA Inter to beat Catania @ 1.8 Juventus to beat Udinese @ 1.85 £27.35 on each The last 5 all aways so :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted January 28, 2009 Author Share Posted January 28, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Man Utd and Villa both win and Liverpool play tonight so finger crossed. Either way a profit has been made over these 3 games. Update to come after all results are in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted January 29, 2009 Author Share Posted January 29, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Selections up to 28.01.09 Man Utd to beat West Brom @ 1.38:) Liverpool to beat Wigan @ 1.91:@ Villa to beat Portsmouth @ 2.36:) Inter @ 1.8:) Juventus @ 1.85:$ 3 out of 5 is not bad. Still above my 50% target strike rate. And my own team let me down with yet another needless draw where they threw the game away. Bets : 12 Won : 7 Lost : 5 S/R : 58.33 Total Bet : 260.74 Winnings : 70.06 Winnings Minus comission : 66.56 Loss : 54.70 Profit : 11.86 Total Profit :58.86 Yield : 22.57% New book : 558.86 Next bets : 27.94 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted January 29, 2009 Author Share Posted January 29, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Game for over the weekend. Will add more as they are worked out. Up to and including 31.01.09 Shalke to beat Hannover @ 2.48 Wolfsburg to beat Cologne @ 2.22 Bochum to beat Karlsruhe @ 2.05 Napoli to beat Udinese @ 1.85 4 bets at 27.94 = 111.76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted January 29, 2009 Author Share Posted January 29, 2009 Re: Value Predictions - 12 Bets - 22.57% yield Im not to sure about the German games. Looking at the teams in more detail Wolfsburg have not won away and Bochum have not won a home game in about 6 or 7 games... Oh dear.. The ratings have thrown these up so will stick with them. The system since Mid december. (November for German) has been very successful when back tested. Roughly the last 40/45 games of each EPL, Italian and German leagues the result stand something like. won 22 and lost 8 with average odds around 1.9. I have exluded the Spanish league now as this has proved to be at a loss. Due to fixture break the German has yet to properly be tested yet after only 4 bets have met the criteria. Hope they dont let me down tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted February 4, 2009 Author Share Posted February 4, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Game for over the weekend. Will add more as they are worked out. Up to and including 31.01.09 Shalke to beat Hannover @ 2.48:( Wolfsburg to beat Cologne @ 2.22:( Bochum to beat Karlsruhe @ 2.05:) Napoli to beat Udinese @ 1.85:$ 4 bets at 27.94 = 111.76 Bets : 16 Won : 8 Lost : 8 S/R : 50% Total Bet : 372.50 Winnings : 29.34 Winnings Minus comission : 27.87 Loss : 83.82 Profit : -55.95 Total Profit :2.91 Yield : 0.78% New book : 502.91 Next bets : £25.14 A disappointing week with the first game in Germany after their break. I also missed the italian games as i was changing my broadband over and lost internet connection. Overall its doing ok and i have tweeked the system to tighten the criteria on away games. From the 13th December only 7 bets would have met the away criteria giving a strike rate of over 70% (5 wins from 7) and a yield of 38% Home games would give 17 games and again give 70% strike rate with 12 wins and on £25 level stakes would provide a yeild of just over 50%. Selection up to and including 08.02.09 Liverpool to beat Portsmouth @ 1.66 Hoffenheim to beat Munchengladbach @ 2.2 Man Utd to beat West Ham @ 1.66 Inter to beat Lecce @ 1.62 Wigan to beat Fulham @ 2.08 Calgiari to beat Atalanta @ 2.1 Palermo to beat Napoli @ 2.14 7 bets at £25.14 Total 175.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted February 14, 2009 Author Share Posted February 14, 2009 Re: Value Predictions - 12 Bets - 22.57% yield Not had chance to update due to broadband problems. Only 1 selection today so will use last weeks betting of £25.14 Cologne to win @ 1.92 and will update later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted February 18, 2009 Author Share Posted February 18, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Selection up to and including 08.02.09 Liverpool to beat Portsmouth @ 1.66:D Hoffenheim to beat Munchengladbach @ 2.2:$ Man Utd to beat West Ham @ 1.66:D Inter to beat Lecce @ 1.62:D Wigan to beat Fulham @ 2.08:$ Calgiari to beat Atalanta @ 2.1:$ Palermo to beat Napoli @ 2.14:D Cologne :$ 7 bets at £25.14 Total 175.98 Bets : 24 Won : 12 Lost : 12 S/R : 50.00% Total Bet : 573.62 Winnings : 77.43 Winnings Minus comission : 98.70 Loss : 75.42 Profit : -27.00 Total Profit :24.09 Yield : 0.0 New book : 475.91 Next bets : £23.80 Another poor week but overall from backtesting im still showing a yield over 33% so will stick with this and see if things improve. The Germans are back from their break and im wondering whether i should of stayed away from them for a few weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted February 20, 2009 Author Share Posted February 20, 2009 Re: Value Predictions - 12 Bets - 22.57% yield Weekend starting 20th Feb Wolfsburg to beat H. Berlin @ 2.14 Inter to beat Bologne @ 1.86 2 X £23.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: Value Predictions - 12 Bets - 22.57% yield Weekend starting 20th Feb Wolfsburg to beat H. Berlin @ 2.14:D Inter to beat Bologne @ 1.86:D 2 X £23.80 Two wins sees it back in profit so hopefully the bad run ends. Still aiming for the strike rate to be over 60%. Bets : 26 Won : 14 Lost : 12 S/R : 53.85% Total Bet : 621.22 Winnings : 47.60 Winnings Minus comission : 45.22 Loss : 0 Profit : 45.22 Total Profit : 21.13 Yield : 3.4% New book : 521.13 Next bets : £26.00 (rounded down) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted February 26, 2009 Author Share Posted February 26, 2009 Re: Value Predictions 28.02.09 Liverpool to beat Middlesborough @ 1.76 01.03.09 Calgiari to beat Torino @ 2.08 01.03.09 Inter to beat Roma @ 1.89 3 bets @ £26.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted March 1, 2009 Author Share Posted March 1, 2009 Re: Value Predictions With the above bet looking a load of rubbish it looks like a will at a loss. So as Inter are still playing im posting the next set of bets. I will use £24.00 for each. 03.03.09 Chelsea @ 1.60 Arsenal @ 1.65 Man Utd @ 1.53 The first time the system has picked the big guns together as not many bets are from the EPL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted March 6, 2009 Author Share Posted March 6, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Still have to update from posts 22 and 23 but not had time due to decorating the house. Back to work on Monday so some more time on hands so will update then. A quick look say £78.00 lost on post 22 as Liverpool, Inter and Calgiari bets were all losers, taking total bank to a £51 loss at £449. Man utd, Arsenal and Chelsea all won but not very good odds. A £40.00 profit on the day so still approximatley a tenner down. Will use accurate update soon so for these next bets i will use £25 as we are pretty equal in the bank.Still waiting for the system to show some good results as from beginning of Decemeber im still showing a very good profit and results. The weekends selections Roma to beat Udinese @ 1.94 Juventus to beat Torino @ 2.4 Struttgart to beat Dortmund @ 1.99 3 bets @ £25.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted March 8, 2009 Author Share Posted March 8, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Liverpool to beat Middlesborough @ 1.76:$ Calgiari to beat Torino @ 2.08:$ Inter to beat Roma @ 1.89:$ Profit = -£78.00 New Book = £443.13 Chelsea @ 1.60;) Arsenal @ 1.65;) Man Utd @ 1.53;) Profit = £40.58 (including commission off) New Book = 483.71 Roma to beat Udinese @ 1.94:$ Juventus to beat Torino @ 2.4;) Struttgart to beat Dortmund @ 1.99;) Profit = £31.76 New Book = £515.47 Bets : 35 Won : 19 Lost : 16 S/R : 54.29% Total Bet : 846.22 Profit : 15.47 Yield : 1.83% A bit of improvement over the last 6 games with only 1 loss so hopfully things will turn around now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted March 13, 2009 Author Share Posted March 13, 2009 Re: Value Predictions This weekends predictions. Liverpool are my team and have let me down a number of times. Now im going against them. A bit reluctant but thats what the ratings say so here goes.. Man Utd to beat Liverpool @ 1.99 Bolton to beat Fulham @ 2.16 Atalanta to beat Torino @ 2.3 Bremen to beat Struttgart @ 2.06. 4 bets @ 25.75 each. Total £103.00 Also fancy Wolfsburg tonight at cracking odds of 2.28 considering their home record reads won 10 drew 1 lost 0. But i will leave this bet alone as the rating is not good enough. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted March 16, 2009 Author Share Posted March 16, 2009 Re: Value Predictions This weekends predictions. Liverpool are my team and have let me down a number of times. Now im going against them. A bit reluctant but thats what the ratings say so here goes.. Man Utd to beat Liverpool @ 1.99:wall Bolton to beat Fulham @ 2.16:wall Atalanta to beat Torino @ 2.3;) Bremen to beat Struttgart @ 2.06.;) 4 bets @ 25.75 each. Total £103.00 Also fancy Wolfsburg tonight at cracking odds of 2.28 considering their home record reads won 10 drew 1 lost 0. But i will leave this bet alone as the rating is not good enough. :hope Bets : 39 Won : 21 Lost : 18 S/R : 53.85% Total Bet : 724.22 Winnings : 60.62 Winnings Minus comission : 57.60 Loss : 51.50 Profit : 6.10 Total Profit : 21.57 Yield : 2.98% New book : 521.57 Next bets : £26.00 (rounded down) I was also right about Liverpool and Wolfburg. :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted April 4, 2009 Author Share Posted April 4, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Chelsea @ 1.77 Bolton @ 2.18 Inter @ 1.90 Madrid @ 1.82 Sampdoria @ 2.17 Leverkusen @ 2.27 Sevilla @ 2.18 £26.00 on each Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Chelsea @ 1.77:clap Bolton @ 2.18:clap Inter @ 1.90:clap Madrid @ 1.82:clap Sampdoria @ 2.17:$ Leverkusen @ 2.27:clap Sevilla @ 2.18:clap £26.00 on each An excellent week this time around getting things back on track. Bets : 46 Won : 27 Lost : 19 S/R : 58.7% Total Bet : 906.22 Winnings : 159.12 Winnings Minus comission : 151.16 Loss : 26 Profit : 125.16 Total Profit : 146.74 Yield : 16.19% New book : 646.74 Next bets : £32.00 (rounded down) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted April 10, 2009 Author Share Posted April 10, 2009 Re: Value Predictions Weekends bets Man Utd @ 1.52 Man City @ 1.96 Struttgart @ 2.18 Wolfsburg @ 2.0 Mallorca @ 2.15 5 bets at £32.00 = £160 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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