1907zico Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 Well guys, after experiencing a few bad moment concerning stacking and discipline in the last 6 month I had a lot of time to think about a "system" which I want to use for 1.Bundesliga only. I will concentrate on Bundesliga and will use my previews (which I post every week in Western European Forum) as a base. Aspects which will be taking into account before placing a bet are: Team motivation/atmosphere; Team/Key players form; H2H/over-under stats; Injury/Suspension/Lineup; Tactic of both teams; Media pressure; Fans mood; Influence of midweek matches; New coach effect; Lucky wins/Bad luck losses (which will influence last match form positiv/negativ). After having done the homework I will have a look at the odds. I am going to look for AH, 1X2 and over/under odds and compare them with the odds I would expect from the information I found. Since I am expecting to have a low number of bets each weekend, stacks will be high % of the bank. Its my first serious attempt to make profit of my knowledge and I will papertrailing this for the rest of the season in hope to have good results to go on with this the next years. I am planning to do this with 1000€ bank next season so we will start this with a 1000 point bank. Stacks will be varying between 2-5% of the bank. Still two weeks to go for Bundesliga to start and I will go on gathering information about clubs to have a good 1st weekend then ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veldre Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 my prediction on bundesliga is that there is possibly one rich guy who bet on Hoffenheim before season :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted January 29, 2009 Author Share Posted January 29, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Alright our first weekend and tbh I am very excited! Dont have much time so I will first chose Friday matches Hamburg-Bayern: 1. Bet: Total number of corners: under 10,5 20 pts @2.02 Bayern away corner: under (62,5%) Hamburg home corner: under (75%) Odds in relation to % are too good to not chose! 2. Bet: 1st half winner: Bayern München 20 pts @2.65 Hamburg concede many early goals - Bayern scores many in 15-30 minutes. 3. Bet: Fulltime winner: Bayern München (AH 0) 20 pts @1.6 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted January 29, 2009 Share Posted January 29, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Maybe you should have made 2 and 3 into a HT/FT bet instead. Odds of that seems to be around 3.5 or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted January 29, 2009 Author Share Posted January 29, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Maybe you should have made 2 and 3 into a HT/FT bet instead. Odds of that seems to be around 3.5 or so. Well 2+3 together would not be HT/FT at all. They can lead halftime and draw fulltime and I would be in profit, what would be not the fact if I would play that HT/FT. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cogge Posted January 29, 2009 Share Posted January 29, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Yes I know :P Personally I never like playing several bets on the same game :P (unless it's like correct score or 1X) 1/1 HT/FT is the double of HT 1 and FT 1 :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 29, 2009 Share Posted January 29, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Cogge: You may have missed the Asian Handicap 0 on the FT bet.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted January 30, 2009 Author Share Posted January 30, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Alright our first weekend and tbh I am very excited! Dont have much time so I will first chose Friday matches Hamburg-Bayern: 1. Bet: Total number of corners: under 10,5 20 pts @2.02 Bayern away corner: under (62,5%) Hamburg home corner: under (75%) Odds in relation to % are too good to not chose! 2. Bet: 1st half winner: Bayern München 20 pts @2.65 Hamburg concede many early goals - Bayern scores many in 15-30 minutes. 3. Bet: Fulltime winner: Bayern München (AH 0) 20 pts @1.6 :hope All 3 bets are losers.. New Bank: 940 Pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted January 30, 2009 Author Share Posted January 30, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 1. FC Köln : VfL Wolfsburg Mybets: Wolfsburg awaywin 30pts @2.1 - Wolfsburg win either HF/FT 50pts @1.7 - First team to score Wolfsburg 30pts @1.75 Borussia Dortmund : Bayer Leverkusen Mybets: Both teams to score 50pts @1.55 Only two matches with a bit of value for me. After desolut first day I hope for some better bets tomorrow.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 1. FC Köln : VfL Wolfsburg Mybets: Wolfsburg awaywin 30pts @2.1 - Wolfsburg win either HF/FT 50pts @1.7 - First team to score Wolfsburg 30pts @1.75 :$ Borussia Dortmund : Bayer Leverkusen Mybets: Both teams to score 50pts @1.55:clap Only two matches with a bit of value for me. After desolut first day I hope for some better bets tomorrow.:hope New Bank: 857,5 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Werder Bremen : Arminia Bielefeld 1.Bets: under 2,5 20 pts @2.35; under 3,5 50 pts @1.5:hope 2. Bet: Draw 20 pts @4.5 3. Bet: First goal to happen after 24 minute 20 pts @1.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 VfL Bochum 1848 : Karlsruher SC 1.Bet: Bochum straight win 50 pts @2.1 2.Bet: Bochum to score first 20 pts @1.7 3.Bet: Both teams to score no 20 pts @2.1 4.Bet: HT/FT Draw/Bochum 20 pts @4.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 1, 2009 Author Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Ingame bets: Bremen -6 corners 20 pts @2.3 Bochum-Karlsruhe over 2,5 20 pts @1.925 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 1, 2009 Author Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Werder Bremen : Arminia Bielefeld 1.Bets: under 2,5 20 pts @2.35:\; under 3,5 50 pts @1.5:clap 2. Bet: Draw 20 pts @4.5 :unsure 3. Bet: First goal to happen after 24 minute 20 pts @1.9 :eyes VfL Bochum 1848 : Karlsruher SC 1.Bet: Bochum straight win 50 pts @2.1:clap 2.Bet: Bochum to score first 20 pts @1.7:clap 3.Bet: Both teams to score no 20 pts @2.1:clap 4.Bet: HT/FT Draw/Bochum 20 pts @4.5:unsure Ingame bets: Bremen -6 corners 20 pts @2.3:clap (14:1 corners..) Bochum-Karlsruhe over 2,5 20 pts @1.925:( New Bank: 899,5 Around 40 pts profit today even though Bremen did shock me once again :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 6, 2009 Author Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Arminia Bielefeld : Hertha under 2,5 @1.85 :hope Edit: (20:26) stack is 20 pts forgot to add. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 6, 2009 Author Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Arminia Bielefeld : Hertha under 2,5 @1.85 :hope :clap Edit: (20:26) stack is 20 pts forgot to add. New Bank: 916,5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 7, 2009 Author Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 FC Schalke 04 : Werder Bremen Mybets: under 3 30pts @1.68 (10Bet) - Schalke win 20 pts @2.1 (unibet) Karlsruher SC : Hamburger SV Mybets: Hamburg (0) 30 pts @1.55 (interwetten) Bayer Leverkusen : VfB Stuttgart Mybets: Leverkusen -0,5 50 pts @1.84 (stan james) Bor. Mönchengladbach : 1899 Hoffenheim Mybets: over 2,5 30 pts @1.7 (expekt), over 3 20 pts @2.17 (canbet) Eintracht Frankfurt : 1. FC Köln Mybets: over 2,5 15 pts @1.93 (pinnacle) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 7, 2009 Author Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 FC Schalke 04 : Werder Bremen Mybets: under 3 30pts @1.68 :clap(10Bet) - Schalke win 20 pts @2.1 :clap(unibet) Karlsruher SC : Hamburger SV Mybets: Hamburg (0) 30 pts @1.55 :eyes(interwetten) Bayer Leverkusen : VfB Stuttgart Mybets: Leverkusen -0,5 50 pts @1.84:wall (stan james) Bor. Mönchengladbach : 1899 Hoffenheim Mybets: over 2,5 30 pts @1.7 (expekt):eek, over 3 20 pts @2.17 :eek(canbet) Eintracht Frankfurt : 1. FC Köln Mybets: over 2,5 15 pts @1.93 :clap(pinnacle) New Bank: 842.85 :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 7, 2009 Author Share Posted February 7, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Energie Cottbus : Hannover 96 Mybet: Over 4 cards 20 pts @1.85 Bayern München : Borussia Dortmund Mybets: Bayern -1,5 50 Pts @2.18 First goal after 24th minute 50 pts @2 Both teams to score 50 pts @1.7 Under 10,5 corners 20 pts @1.95 Additional bets: Luca Toni scores 2 or more goals 30 pts @4.5 Luca Toni to score hattrick 10 pts @17 :gimme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 8, 2009 Author Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Energie Cottbus : Hannover 96 Mybet: Over 4 cards 20 pts @1.85:clap Bayern München : Borussia Dortmund Mybets: Bayern -1,5 50 Pts @2.18:clap First goal after 24th minute 50 pts @2:wall Both teams to score 50 pts @1.7:clap Under 10,5 corners 20 pts @1.95:wall Additional bets: Luca Toni scores 2 or more goals 30 pts @4.5:( Luca Toni to score hattrick 10 pts @17:( :gimme New Bank: 873,85 Slight profit still, could have been better though :zzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 12, 2009 Author Share Posted February 12, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 1899 Hoffenheim : Bayer Leverkusen Mybets: - over 3 50 pts @2.06 (canbet) - 3:1 correct score 3 pts @22 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 14, 2009 Author Share Posted February 14, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 1899 Hoffenheim : Bayer Leverkusen Mybets: - over 3 50 pts @2.06 (canbet):nana - 3:1 correct score 3 pts @22:\ :hope New Bank: 923,85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 14, 2009 Author Share Posted February 14, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Hertha BSC : Bayern München Mybets: Bayern München 30 pts @1.95 (sporting bet) Eintracht Frankfurt : VfL Wolfsburg Mybets: Over 3 40 Pts @2.08 (pinnacle) Frankfurt +0,5 20 pts @1.64 (bet365) Hannover 96 : VfB Stuttgart Mybets: Stuttgart (0) 30 Pts @1.87 (Stan James) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 14, 2009 Author Share Posted February 14, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 New Bank: 833,85 Noticed that I am doing quite good profit on friday/sunday and eating all of it on saturday.. :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 15, 2009 Author Share Posted February 15, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Borussia Dortmund : Energie Cottbus Mybets: over 10 corners 40 pts @1.975 over 3,5 cards 50 pts @1.65 Dortmund -2,5 corners 40 [email protected] Hamburger SV : Arminia Bielefeld Mybets: Bielefeld +1,5 50 pts @1,54 Under 3 30 pts @1,525 Correct score: 1:1 5 pts @7.5 HT/FT draw/draw 5 pts@6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 15, 2009 Author Share Posted February 15, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Borussia Dortmund : Energie Cottbus Mybets: over 10 corners 40 pts @1.975 :nana over 3,5 cards 50 pts @1.65:nana Dortmund -2,5 corners 40 pts @1.85:nana Hamburger SV : Arminia Bielefeld Mybets: Bielefeld +1,5 50 pts @1,54:@ Under 3 30 pts @1,525:nana Correct score: 1:1 5 pts @7.5:cry HT/FT draw/draw 5 pts @6 :cry New Bank: 895,1 :ok Again nice profit on Friday/Saturday.. may have to be more selective on Sunday matches! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 20, 2009 Author Share Posted February 20, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Energie Cottbus : Werder Bremen Mybets: Bremen -1 corner 50 Pts @1.85 Under 3 20Pts @1.74 (Canbet) Halftime Draw 20pts @2 (mybet) Karlsruher SC : Eintracht Frankfurt Mybets: Under 3 40 pts @1.61 (10bet) VfL Wolfsburg : Hertha BSC Mybets: Under 3 50 pts @1.68 (10bet) Hertha +0,5 30 pts @1.88 (Stan James) Bayern München : 1.FC Köln Mybets: Klose anytimescorer 20 Pts @1.8 Bayern -4 corners 30 Pts @2.1 Over 3 30 Pts @1.85 (pinnacle) Arminia Bielefeld : VfL Bochum 1848 Mybets: Under 2 20 Pts @2.6 (betsafe) :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 21, 2009 Author Share Posted February 21, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Energie Cottbus : Werder Bremen Mybets: Bremen -1 corner 50 Pts @1.85 :@ Under 3 20Pts @1.74 (Canbet) PUSH Halftime Draw 20pts @2 (mybet) :nana Karlsruher SC : Eintracht Frankfurt Mybets: Under 3 40 pts @1.61 (10bet) :nana VfL Wolfsburg : Hertha BSC Mybets: Under 3 50 pts @1.68 (10bet) PUSH Hertha +0,5 30 pts @1.88 (Stan James) :@ Bayern München : 1.FC Köln Mybets: Klose anytimescorer 20 Pts @1.8 :@ Bayern -4 corners 30 Pts @2.1 :nana Over 3 30 Pts @1.85 (pinnacle) PUSH Arminia Bielefeld : VfL Bochum 1848 Mybets: Under 2 20 Pts @2.6 (betsafe) PUSH :drums New Bank: 872,5 slight loss because of late equalizers :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 22, 2009 Author Share Posted February 22, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Bayer Leverkusen : Hamburger SV Mybets: Over 3 50 Pts @2.27 (10bet) :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted February 22, 2009 Author Share Posted February 22, 2009 Re: Bundesliga Prediction 2009 Bayer Leverkusen : Hamburger SV Mybets: Over 3 50 Pts @2.27 (10bet) PUSH :drums Bank doesnt change, I could :puke everytime I play this league at the moment. Olic running 1vs1 against goalkeeper (1:2 score) and is too stupid to score otherwise a juiiiiicy win.. Just getting more and more annoyed :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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