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Re: Tomahawk's football system. Tomahawk, I have a spreadsheet set up whereby I can backtest certain selection strategies, but it isn't really geared up to awarding points in the sort of manner that your strategy dictates. So just letting you know that it could take me some time, if at all, to be able to set up the automated back test spreadsheet.

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Re: Tomahawk's football system.

Tomahawk, I have a spreadsheet set up whereby I can backtest certain selection strategies, but it isn't really geared up to awarding points in the sort of manner that your strategy dictates. So just letting you know that it could take me some time, if at all, to be able to set up the automated back test spreadsheet.
Any help would be appreciated but please don't feel obliged. If it would be better maybe I could have a look at the spreadsheets, although my excel skills aren't brilliant. Thanks again :ok
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Re: Tomahawk's football system.

Any help would be appreciated but please don't feel obliged. If it would be better maybe I could have a look at the spreadsheets, although my excel skills aren't brilliant. Thanks again :ok
I tend to keep home and away form separate, ie when looking at a game I just look at how the home team has done at home previously, and vice versa for the away team. Hence, that is the way that my spreadsheet is constructed, sorry.
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Re: Tomahawk's football system.

I tend to keep home and away form separate' date=' ie when looking at a game I just look at how the home team has done at home previously, and vice versa for the away team. Hence, that is the way that my spreadsheet is constructed, sorry.[/quote'] No worries at all mate. I was more interested in how you set it up to be automated but I reckon it would be above my current knowledge. Once my exams are out the way I will look into doing some more vigourous back testing, probably of the Championship.
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Re: Tomahawk's football system.

No worries at all mate. I was more interested in how you set it up to be automated but I reckon it would be above my current knowledge. Once my exams are out the way I will look into doing some more vigourous back testing' date=' probably of the Championship.[/quote'] Basically, I have a spreadsheet template set out. It uses the football-data.co.uk data files. In the template I set out the spreadsheet to test whatever I want to test, ie I would work out the points that you would award each team based on the previous results. Once I have got it correct on the spreadsheet, I just click a macro button that then retrieves as many other league files as I wish and using the template that I set up it works out the predictions (and results) for all those other leagues as well. Once the template is set up, each league takes about 5 seconds to retrieve :)
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Re: Tomahawk's football system. If your system just used previous home games for the home team, and away games for the away team I would probably be able to run some backtesting within a day or so, but because you are using both home and away results the whole infrastructure of my spreadsheet needs to change, and I just don't have the time right now to do this.

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Re: Tomahawk's football system.

Basically, I have a spreadsheet template set out. It uses the football-data.co.uk data files. In the template I set out the spreadsheet to test whatever I want to test, ie I would work out the points that you would award each team based on the previous results. Once I have got it correct on the spreadsheet, I just click a macro button that then retrieves as many other league files as I wish and using the template that I set up it works out the predictions (and results) for all those other leagues as well. Once the template is set up, each league takes about 5 seconds to retrieve :)
That definately sounds like something I need to figure out!
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Re: Tomahawk's football system. ***This post is concerned with bets that I have already placed but not posted on here. Staffy has given me permission to post them along with a screen grab of my account showing all transactions since the account was open. If anyone has any questions or concerns please post them up*** Inspired by Lechero's laying strugglers at home I am laying home teams where the away team has a differential of +9 or the home team are just plain bad against a decent side. The image below is of the 8 bets of placed so far. 7 were winners and each one was with a liability of £2. betdaq.jpg The following table is using points, starting with 1000 and a 20 point liability for each bet.

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Liability

Stake

Result

Return

P/L

Bank

1000

1

09/12/2008

English Conference

WOKING vs Rushden and Diamonds

3.25

20.00

8.9

WON

28.93

8.93

1008.93

2

09/12/2008

English Championship

NOTTS FOREST vs Sheffield United

2.96

20.00

10.2

WON

30.19

9.68

1018.61

3

12/12/2008

English League One

BRIGHTON vs MK Dons

3.15

20.00

9.3

WON

29.30

8.83

1027.44

4

13/12/2008

German Bundesliga

DENDER vs Lokeren

3.8

20.00

7.1

WON

26.98

6.63

1034.07

5

13/12/2008

German Bundesliga

BOCHUM vs Cologne

2.24

20.00

16.1

WON

36.06

15.26

1049.33

6

13/12/2008

English League One

YEOVIL vs Stockport

2.8

20.00

11.1

WON

31.08

10.53

1059.86

7

13/12/2008

English League Two

GRIMSBY vs Shrewsbury

3.75

20.00

7.2

LOST

0.00

-20.00

1039.86

8

13/12/2008

English League Two

BARNET vs Gillingham

3.55

20.00

7.8

WON

27.69

7.31

1047.16
Current P/L - Bets: 8 Won: 7 Lost: 1 Strike Rate: 87.5% Staked (total liability): 160 Returned: 210.23 Profit/(Loss): 47.16 Yield: 29.48%
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Re: Tomahawk's football system. Slim pickings this week. Germany and Belgium are on their winter breaks and a lot of decent teams are playing each other so only 18 bets in total. BACKING SYSTEM

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Stake

71

20/12/2008

English League One

MK DONS (H) to beat Leeds

2.25

8.00

72

20/12/2008

English League One

TRANMERE (H) to beat Brighton

1.80

12.50

73

20/12/2008

English League Two

ALDERSHOT (H) to beat Grimsby

1.72

13.89

74

20/12/2008

English League Two

DARLINGTON (H) to beat Barnet

1.57

17.55

75

20/12/2008

English Conference

WREXHAM (H) to beat Eastbourne

1.61

16.40

76

20/12/2008

English Conference

CAMBRIDGE to beat Sailsbury

1.50

20.00

77

20/12/2008

Dutch Premiership

NAC (H) to beat Vitesse

1.61

16.40

78

20/12/2008

Scottish 2nd Division

RAITH (H) to beat Arbroath

1.50

20.00

79

21/12/2008

Dutch Premiership

PSV (H) to beat Feyenoord

1.57

17.55

80

21/12/2008

Italian Serie A

AC MILAN (H) to beat Udinese

1.57

17.55

81

21/12/2008

Italian Serie A

CAGLIARI (H) to beat Reggina

1.72

13.89

LAYING SYSTEM

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Liability

Stake

9

20/12/2008

English Premiership

WEST HAM vs Aston Villa

3.3

20.00

8.9

10

20/12/2008

English Championship

BRISTOL CITY vs Burnley

2.8

20.00

11.45

11

20/12/2008

English League One

COLCHESTER vs Scunthorpe

2.7

20.00

12.15

12

20/12/2008

Scottish Premiership

INVERNESS vs Aberdeen

3.05

20.00

10.02

13

20/12/2008

Scottish 2nd Division

STRANRAR vs East Fife

3.75

20.00

7.42

14

20/12/2008

Scottish 3rd Division

FORFAR vs Stenhousemuir

3.35

20.00

8.71

15

21/12/2008

Italian Serie A

CHIEVO vs Genoa

2.69

20.00

12.22

I do have another 18 games that are eligible for one system or the other but the odds aren't good enough. I'm starting to think that some leagues (Greece) just aren't worth the effort because the odds are always short. One thing I have noticed, and will be looking at again, is the amount of goals scored in the Welsh league. I think only 2 games in the last 2 weeks have finished under 2.5 goals.
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Re: Tomahawk's football system. Post above has a mistake. Denmark, not Belgium, are on their winter break. Andelechts price has gone from 1.44 to 1.5 so I have added them to this weekends fixtures.

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Stake

71

19/12/2008

Belgian 1e Klasse

ANDERLECHT (H) to beat Genk

1.50

20.00

72

20/12/2008

English League One

MK DONS (H) to beat Leeds

2.25

8.00

73

20/12/2008

English League One

TRANMERE (H) to beat Brighton

1.80

12.50

74

20/12/2008

English League Two

ALDERSHOT (H) to beat Grimsby

1.72

13.89

75

20/12/2008

English League Two

DARLINGTON (H) to beat Barnet

1.57

17.55

76

20/12/2008

English Conference

WREXHAM (H) to beat Eastbourne

1.61

16.40

77

20/12/2008

English Conference

CAMBRIDGE to beat Sailsbury

1.50

20.00

78

20/12/2008

Dutch Premiership

NAC (H) to beat Vitesse

1.61

16.40

79

20/12/2008

Scottish 2nd Division

RAITH (H) to beat Arbroath

1.50

20.00

80

21/12/2008

Dutch Premiership

PSV (H) to beat Feyenoord

1.57

17.55

81

21/12/2008

Italian Serie A

AC MILAN (H) to beat Udinese

1.57

17.55

82

21/12/2008

Italian Serie A

CAGLIARI (H) to beat Reggina

1.72

13.89

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Re: Tomahawk's football system. Good start with Anderlecht winning fairly comfortably.

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Stake

71

19/12/2008

Belgian 1e Klasse

ANDERLECHT (H) to beat Genk

1.50

20.00 :D

72

20/12/2008

English League One

MK DONS (H) to beat Leeds

2.25

8.00

73

20/12/2008

English League One

TRANMERE (H) to beat Brighton

1.80

12.50

74

20/12/2008

English League Two

ALDERSHOT (H) to beat Grimsby

1.72

13.89

75

20/12/2008

English League Two

DARLINGTON (H) to beat Barnet

1.57

17.55

76

20/12/2008

English Conference

WREXHAM (H) to beat Eastbourne

1.61

16.40

77

20/12/2008

English Conference

CAMBRIDGE to beat Sailsbury

1.50

20.00

78

20/12/2008

Dutch Premiership

NAC (H) to beat Vitesse

1.61

16.40

79

20/12/2008

Scottish 2nd Division

RAITH (H) to beat Arbroath

1.50

20.00

80

21/12/2008

Dutch Premiership

PSV (H) to beat Feyenoord

1.57

17.55

81

21/12/2008

Italian Serie A

AC MILAN (H) to beat Udinese

1.57

17.55

82

21/12/2008

Italian Serie A

CAGLIARI (H) to beat Reggina

1.72

13.89

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Re: Tomahawk's football system. A succesful day for both systems. Backing System

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Stake

Result

Return

P/L

Bank

71

19/12/2008

Belgian 1e Klasse

ANDERLECHT (H) to beat Genk

1.50

20.00

WON

30.00

10.00

968.69

72

20/12/2008

English League One

MK DONS (H) to beat Leeds

2.25

8.00

WON

18.00

10.00

978.69

73

20/12/2008

English League One

TRANMERE (H) to beat Brighton

1.80

12.50

WON

22.50

10.00

988.69

74

20/12/2008

English League Two

ALDERSHOT (H) to beat Grimsby

1.72

13.89

LOST

0.00

-13.89

974.80

75

20/12/2008

English League Two

DARLINGTON (H) to beat Barnet

1.57

17.55

LOST

0.00

-17.55

957.25

76

20/12/2008

English Conference

WREXHAM (H) to beat Eastbourne

1.61

16.40

WON

26.40

10.00

967.25

77

20/12/2008

English Conference

CAMBRIDGE to beat Sailsbury

1.50

20.00

WON

30.00

10.00

977.25

78

20/12/2008

Dutch Premiership

NAC (H) to beat Vitesse

1.61

16.40

WON

26.40

10.00

987.26

79

20/12/2008

Scottish 2nd Division

RAITH (H) to beat Arbroath

1.50

20.00

WON

30.00

10.00

997.26

Nearly in profit! 3 games tomorrow and 2 wins will put me up :nana Laying System

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Liability

Stake

Result

Return

P/L

Bank

9

20/12/2008

English Premiership

WEST HAM vs Aston Villa

3.3

20.00

8.9

WON

29.37

8.90

1056.06

10

20/12/2008

English Championship

BRISTOL CITY vs Burnley

2.8

20.00

11.45

WON

32.06

11.46

1067.52

11

20/12/2008

English League One

COLCHESTER vs Scunthorpe

2.7

20.00

12.15

WON

32.81

12.16

1079.68

12

20/12/2008

Scottish Premiership

INVERNESS vs Aberdeen

3.05

20.00

10.02

WON

30.56

10.03

1089.72

13

20/12/2008

Scottish 2nd Division

STRANRAR vs East Fife

3.75

20.00

7.42

WON

27.83

7.43

1097.15

14

20/12/2008

Scottish 3rd Division

FORFAR vs Stenhousemuir

3.35

20.00

8.71

LOST

0.00

-20.00

1077.15

Only 2 losses from 14. One game tomorrow and I'm guaranteed a profit even if that one goes the other way :rollin
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Re: Tomahawk's football system. The table below for my laying system and therefore the last two P/L are also wrong. I was charging 5% commission on everything that was returned to me instead of just the profit. This has a fairly large effect. The amended table and P/L are below.

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Liability

Stake

Result

Return

Commission

P/L

Bank

1000

1

09/12/2008

English Conference

WOKING vs Rushden and Diamonds

3.25

20.00

8.9

WON

1

28.93

0.45

8.48

1008.48

2

09/12/2008

English Championship

NOTTS FOREST vs Sheffield United

2.96

20.00

10.2

WON

1

30.19

0.51

9.68

1018.16

3

12/12/2008

English League One

BRIGHTON vs MK Dons

3.15

20.00

9.3

WON

1

29.30

0.46

8.83

1026.99

4

13/12/2008

German Bundesliga

DENDER vs Lokeren

3.8

20.00

7.2

WON

1

27.36

0.37

6.99

1033.98

5

13/12/2008

German Bundesliga

BOCHUM vs Cologne

2.24

20.00

16.1

WON

1

36.06

0.80

15.26

1049.24

6

13/12/2008

English League One

YEOVIL vs Stockport

2.8

20.00

11.1

WON

1

31.08

0.55

10.53

1059.77

7

13/12/2008

English League Two

GRIMSBY vs Shrewsbury

3.75

20.00

7.2

LOST

0

0.00

0.00

-20.00

1039.77

8

13/12/2008

English League Two

BARNET vs Gillingham

3.55

20.00

7.8

WON

1

27.69

0.38

7.31

1047.08

9

20/12/2008

English Premiership

WEST HAM vs Aston Villa

3.3

20.00

8.9

WON

1

29.37

0.47

8.90

1055.98

10

20/12/2008

English Championship

BRISTOL CITY vs Burnley

2.8

20.00

11.45

WON

1

32.06

0.60

11.46

1067.43

11

20/12/2008

English League One

COLCHESTER vs Scunthorpe

2.7

20.00

12.15

WON

1

32.81

0.64

12.16

1079.60

12

20/12/2008

Scottish Premiership

INVERNESS vs Aberdeen

3.05

20.00

10.02

WON

1

30.56

0.53

10.03

1089.63

13

20/12/2008

Scottish 2nd Division

STRANRAR vs East Fife

3.75

20.00

7.42

WON

1

27.83

0.39

7.43

1097.07

14

20/12/2008

Scottish 3rd Division

FORFAR vs Stenhousemuir

3.35

20.00

8.71

LOST

0

0.00

0.00

-20.00

1077.07

15

21/12/2008

Italian Serie A

CHIEVO vs Genoa

2.69

20.00

12.22

WON

1

32.87

0.64

12.23

1089.29

Current Laying P/L - Bets: 15 Won: 13 Lost: 2 Strike Rate: 86.67% Staked (total liability): 300 Returned After Commission: 389.29 Profit/(Loss): 89.29 Yield: 29.76% Current Combined P/L - Bets: 97 Won: 61 Lost: 36 Strike Rate: 62.89% Staked: 1626.74 Returned: 1719.41 Profit/(Loss): 92.67 Yield: 5.70%
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Re: Tomahawk's football system. Looked at the games for Boxing Day, I don't think theres much going. Backing System

Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Stake

83

26/12/2008

English Championship

READING (H) to beat Cardiff

1.70

14.29

84

26/12/2008

English Championship

PRESTON (H) to beat Derby

1.90

11.11

85

26/12/2008

English Conference

BURTON ALBION (H) to beat York

1.53

18.87

86

26/12/2008

English Conference

KIDDERMINSTER (H) to beat Forest Green

1.53

18.87

Laying System

Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Liability

Stake

16

26/12/2008

League One

CREWE vs Oldham

3.8

20.00

7.2

17

26/12/2008

League One

BRISTOL ROVERS vs MK Dons

3.85

20.00

7.1

I've got my eye on the Woking vs Crawley game but I don't think the odds are properly set yet.
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Re: Tomahawk's football system. I've been working on adding leagues and I'm now looking at the following 23:

  • Belgian Klasse 1
  • Danish Premiership
  • Dutch Eredivise
  • English Premiership
  • English Championship
  • English League One
  • English League Two
  • English Conference
  • French 1st Division
  • French 2nd Division
  • German Bundesliga 1
  • German Bundesliga 1
  • Greek Superleaue
  • Italian Serie A
  • Italian Serie B
  • Portugese Premiership
  • Scottish Premiership
  • Scottish 1st Division
  • Scottish 2nd Division
  • Scottish 3rd Division
  • Spanish Liga Primera
  • Spanish Liga Segunda
  • Turkish Ligi 1

I've dropped Wales because I can't lay weak home teams and the strong teams at home are always very short. I had a look at the games on 27/12/08 only Dumbarton vs Elgin qualified but the odds were very short, probably due to the Elgin manager quitting (and that they're rubbish). Next batch of games is on Sunday so I will post my selections up on Saturday. Merry Christmas :loon:loon:loon

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Re: Tomahawk's football system. A small profit of 0.8 points across both systems with the lays again saving the day. Back System

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Stake

Result

Return

P/L

Bank

83

26/12/2008

English Championship

READING (H) to beat Cardiff

1.70

14.29

LOST

0.00

-14.29

989.09

84

26/12/2008

English Championship

PRESTON (H) to beat Derby

1.90

11.11

WON

21.11

10.00

999.08

85

26/12/2008

English Conference

BURTON ALBION (H) to beat York

1.53

18.87

WON

28.87

10.00

1009.09

86

26/12/2008

English Conference

KIDDERMINSTER (H) to beat Forest Green

1.53

18.87

LOST

0.00

-18.87

990.22

Lay System

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Liability

Stake

Result

Return

Commission

P/L

Bank

16

26/12/2008

League One

CREWE vs Oldham

3.8

20.00

7.2

WON

1

27.36

0.37

6.99

1096.29

17

26/12/2008

League One

BRISTOL ROVERS vs MK Dons

3.85

20.00

7.1

WON

1

27.34

0.37

6.97

1103.25

I'll but up tomorrows selections later on and do a P/L tomorrow night. Hope you all had a good Christmas.
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Re: Tomahawk's football system. I've put 9 on for the next couple of days plus 2 lays where I've requested odds of 4.0. Backing System

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Stake

87

28/12/2008

English Championship

QPR (H) to beat Watford

1.96

10.42

88

28/12/2008

English League One

MK DONS (H) to beat Southend

1.66

15.15

89

28/12/2008

English League One

MILLWALL (H) to beat Yeovil

1.57

17.54

90

28/12/2008

English Conference

WREXHAM (H) to beat Woking

1.61

16.40

Laying System

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Liability

Stake

18

28/12/2008

English Premiership

WEST BROM vs Tottenham

3.8

20.00

7.2

19

28/12/2008

English Championship

BRISTOL CITY vs Crystal Palace

2.84

20.00

10.9

20

28/12/2008

English Championship

DONCASTER vs Burnley

3.55

20.00

7.9

21

28/12/2008

English Championship

SOUTHAMPTON vs Reading

4

20.00

6.7

UM

22

28/12/2008

English Championship

BLACKPOOL vs Wolves

4

20.00

6.7

UM

23

28/12/2008

League Two

NOTTS COUNTY vs Rochdale

3.1

20.00

9.7

24

29/12/2008

English Conference

MANSFIELD vs Burton

3.25

20.00

8.9

*UM = Unmatched
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Re: Tomahawk's football system. A poor day with only 2 wins from 8. Compounded by my lay systems first losing day :sad Backing System

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Stake

Result

Return

P/L

Bank

87

28/12/2008

English Championship

QPR (H) to beat Watford

1.96

10.42

LOST

0.00

-10.42

979.80

88

28/12/2008

English League One

MK DONS (H) to beat Southend

1.66

15.15

WON

25.15

10.00

989.80

89

28/12/2008

English League One

MILLWALL (H) to beat Yeovil

1.57

17.54

LOST

0.00

-17.54

972.26

90

28/12/2008

English Conference

WREXHAM (H) to beat Woking

1.61

16.40

LOST

0.00

-16.40

955.86

I have been ignoring picks that have odds lower than 1.50 which meant I missed out on 4 games that won today. I've had a look through my previous results and have noticed I'm not having much sucess with odds greater than 1.9 so I think I'm going to adjust my odds from between 1.4 and 1.9. Laying System

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Liability

Stake

Result

Return

Commission

P/L

Bank

18

28/12/2008

English Premiership

WEST BROM vs Tottenham

3.8

20.00

7.2

LOST

0

0.00

0.00

-20.00

1083.25

19

28/12/2008

English Championship

BRISTOL CITY vs Crystal Palace

2.84

20.00

10.9

LOST

0

0.00

0.00

-20.00

1063.25

20

28/12/2008

English Championship

DONCASTER vs Burnley

3.55

20.00

7.9

LOST

0

0.00

0.00

-20.00

1043.25

21

28/12/2008

League Two

NOTTS COUNTY vs Rochdale

3.1

20.00

9.7

WON

1

30.07

0.50

9.57

1052.82

Burton game tomorrow to hopefully kick this on again. I'd place all the same bets again so not too worried. If Burton don't loose the whole system will be in profit. I'll do a proper P/L later.
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Re: Tomahawk's football system. Burton beat Mansfield.

Trial Bet NoDate of FixtureCompetitionSelectionOddsLiabilityStakeResult ReturnCommissionP/LBank
2229/12/2008English ConferenceMANSFIELD vs Burton3.2520.008.9WON128.930.458.481061.30
Current Backing P/L Bets: 90 Won: 51 Lost: 39 Strike Rate: 56.67% Staked: 1,449.39 Returned: 1,405.24 Profit/(Loss): (44.15) Yield: -3.05% Current Laying P/L Bets: 22 Won: 17 Lost: 5 Strike Rate: 77.27% Staked (total liability): 440 Returned After Commission: 498.23 Profit/(Loss): 58.23 Yield: 13.24% A bad weekend. My yield was more than halved. I think a strike rate of 80% is sustainable and this would give a healthy yield. Current Combined P/L Bets: 112 Won: 68 Lost: 44 Strike Rate: 60.71% Staked: 1889.39 Returned: 1906.54 Profit/(Loss): 17.15 Yield: 0.01% Head just above water!
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Re: Tomahawk's football system. 4 games for each system. Backing System

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Stake

91

03/01/2009

Scottish Division One

LIVINGSTON (H) to beat Airdrie

1.77

12.99

92

03/01/2009

Spanish Second League

SALAMANCA (H) vs Las Palmas

1.96

10.42

93

04/01/2009

Spanish Premier League

SEVILLA (H) vs Osasuna

1.42

23.80

94

04/01/2009

Spanish Second League

TENERIFE (H) vs Seville B

1.63

15.88

Laying System

Trial Bet No

Date of Fixture

Competition

Selection

Odds

Liability

Stake

23

03/01/2009

Scottish Premiership

HAMILTON vs Aberdeen

3.8

20.00

7.15

24

03/01/2009

Scottish 1st Division

DUNDEE vs Dunfermline

2.65

20.00

12.2

25

04/01/2009

Greek Superleague

PANSERRAIKOS vs Iraklis

2.56

20.00

12.9

26

04/01/2009

Greek Superleague

THRASIVOLOS vs Larissa

3.9

20.00

6.9

:hope:hope:hope:hope

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