Soccer Prediction Model - Profit: +€19.092 Staked: €936.5 Yield: 2%

[Cogge]

Stumbled across this forum by coincidence and since this is "the world's best betting forum" I figured this would be a great place to try out my soccer prediction model and get some useful feedback. My model uses only statistics and available information as input. A flaw in the model is that it is unable (for now) to take in abscent players into it's calculations. Anyway, this is how it works: 1. Uses a Bivariat Poisson distribution curve to assess correct score and calculates Three-way odds according to it. The two variables used is the home team's scoring capability (Average scoring rate at home together with the away team's conceded goals while away, this and last years seasons) and the away team's scoring capability (Average scoring rate while away etc...) 2. Uses a Glick rating system to determine the rating of each team in the league. Then uses the rating difference between the two teams to determine the probability of a home win/away win. (This is based on statistical data, i.e. when two teams with this difference met what was the outcome.) 3. Trend Analysis. Looking at the last 4 matches played by each team and adjusts the odds depending on which team has the best outcomes (i.e. if they are on a roll or not.) 4. Match ups. Looks at the last 4 matches these teams have played against eachother and adjusts the odds according to which team seem to have the edge. 5. Distance. It's a well-known fact that home team advantage can be quite high. This home team advantage generally goes up depending on how far the team has travelled (due to player fatigue / fewer fans cheering their favorite team on etc...). This is why Derbies have a lot lower home team advantage. Anyway, the model determines how far the away team has travelled, compares it with the average distance travelled in the leage and adjusts the odds accordingly. 6. Top team / New teams. Since all of the above are based on generalizations, one needs to account to the differing in top team performance and "bottom" team performance. If a top team or a new team is present in the match up then the odds are adjusted accordingly. These odds have been tested on data from EPL/SerieA/Bundesliga/Ligue1/LigaSagres/PrimeraDivision/Eredivisie from the past 7 years and it seems to be performing quite well at setting odds. So to the true testing of the model. Each week I will run the model and take out a certain number of matches where the model predicts the home favorite odds much lower than the bookies (i.e. where the model tells me there's value to bet on the favorite). I'll run the model on these 7 top leagues and hopefully pull out around 10-15 bets each week. This would be a great place to use Kelly staking, but I'll settle with Level staking and use. I'll bet the entire bank roll each week and split it evenly across the bets. Starting with €100. I'll be using odds from Goalwin as I've found that they usually have rather nice odds and low overround on these higher leagues. Wish me luck :P ---------------------- Below will be edited after each round / weekend ------------------------------ Outcome so far Total Staked: €936.5 Total Profit: +€19.092 Bets won: 62/125 Strike rate: 49.6% Yield: 2%

[Cogge]

Re: Soccer Prediction Model This weekend's bets Bundesliga Hertha vs Karlsruher. Bet: Hertha @ 1.65 Werder vs Wolfsburg. Bet: Werder @ 2.16 Ligue 1 Valenciennes vs Monaco. Bet: Valenciennes @ 2.68 Nice vs Lille. Bet: Nice @ 2.64 Sochaux vs Caen. Bet: Sochaux @ 2.22 Nancy vs Grenoble. Bet: Nancy @ 2.02 Primera Division Malaga vs Numancia Bet: Malaga @ 1.89 Recreativo vs Osasuna. Bet: Recreativo @ 2.4 Sevilla vs Villarreal. Bet: Sevilla @ 2.08 Premier League Sunderland vs West brom. Bet: Sunderland @ 2.12 Portsmouth vs Newcastle. Bet: Portsmouth @ 2.12 Eredivisie Identified Heracles vs Sparta as having a small value, but not high enough to make the list. Serie A Fiorentina vs Catania. Bet: Fiorentina @ 1.5 Reggina vs Sampdoria. Bet: Reggina @ 2.6 Palermo vs Siena. Bet: Palermo @ 1.86 Liga Sagres No bets found. Total number of bets: 14 Stake per bet: €7 Total stake: €98 Bank after bets placed: €2. :hope