Muck9 Posted November 15, 2008 Share Posted November 15, 2008 Hey im just new here and Im looking for a bit of help. ___________________________________________ THIS HAS NOW CHANGED, PLEASE SEE THE POSTS STARTING AT #17 FOR THE RECENT RESULTS FOR MY TWEAKED, BETTER SYSTEM HERES THE RESULTS OF MY BETTER SYSTEM SO FAR (AS OF 09/12/08) ___________________________________________ I have made a system which takes into account: Form in their last 5 games Home/Away Win % in that league Head to Head stats for the last few times teams have played against each other. League Position in the table. I have included percentage of a Draw in this aswell but this doesnt seem to work so I only go for Home Win/Away Win. At the end it comes up with a percentage of Home Win/Away Win/Draw. If its close then I leave it but if its over 55% in one way (Home/Away Win) then I bet on it. Heres the results so far EPL: SPL: As you can see the results are completely different. It seems to be working so well for the SPL but yet failing quite badly for the English Premiership. Has anyone got any ideas why this could be and any tips to improve this system? Any other stats to include into it to make a more accurate percentage? Cheers. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 15, 2008 Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Hi mate, It looks like you are attempting something similar to what I'm working on... I use last 6 games form, points per game, home/away win %, home/away record, league win %. From looking at your numbers, it seems that you under rate the draw significantly. I'm not being the master of hindsight, but West Ham v Portsmouth I felt had a high draw chance, yet you only rate it as 4.33%. If you look at stats, depending on each league, a draw is between 20-35% likelihood, with some teams drawing over 40% of their matches. So that's something I think you could look at for improvement. Hope this helps, feel free to ask if you want any more help! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Hi mate, It looks like you are attempting something similar to what I'm working on... I use last 6 games form, points per game, home/away win %, home/away record, league win %. From looking at your numbers, it seems that you under rate the draw significantly. I'm not being the master of hindsight, but West Ham v Portsmouth I felt had a high draw chance, yet you only rate it as 4.33%. If you look at stats, depending on each league, a draw is between 20-35% likelihood, with some teams drawing over 40% of their matches. So that's something I think you could look at for improvement. Hope this helps, feel free to ask if you want any more help! Hey, Cheers for the help mate. For the EPL I include a 26% (approx) draw rate and for the SPL I include a 21% (approx) rate. Then I include the past draws in the teams last few games. This isnt wholly accurate though. The draw shouldve been higher for a few games but Im not too sure what else to add to make the draw more likely and the figures more accurate. Ill have a look now but have you any other ideas on what to include on this figure? Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 16, 2008 Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Hi mate, Well looking at your calculations, it seems that somehow in your formulas the approx draw rate isn't being weighted heavily enough. What I guess I'm trying to say is that in all your English and Scottish ratings, only several games are near the respective draw rate for each division - yet they should be much nearer it. For example, if you look at the odds offered on a game, a draw is usually between 2/1 and 3/1, so about a 25-33% chance. Only in severe cases where a top team is at home and a bad team is away are these odds much different. If you go to soccerstats.com, you can see a similar system to yours in action - go to any featured division and there is a 1X2 percent prediction for upcoming matches. IMO his system still is somewhat flawed as it gives the draw too much respect, but you'll see what I mean. Without actually looking at your system in it's entirety it would be tough to say what to do to weight the draw heavier, but I'm happy to help if you want to show me your system. If there are private messages on here (dunno!) then feel free to send it to me on there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Hi mate, Well looking at your calculations, it seems that somehow in your formulas the approx draw rate isn't being weighted heavily enough. What I guess I'm trying to say is that in all your English and Scottish ratings, only several games are near the respective draw rate for each division - yet they should be much nearer it. For example, if you look at the odds offered on a game, a draw is usually between 2/1 and 3/1, so about a 25-33% chance. Only in severe cases where a top team is at home and a bad team is away are these odds much different. If you go to soccerstats.com, you can see a similar system to yours in action - go to any featured division and there is a 1X2 percent prediction for upcoming matches. IMO his system still is somewhat flawed as it gives the draw too much respect, but you'll see what I mean. Without actually looking at your system in it's entirety it would be tough to say what to do to weight the draw heavier, but I'm happy to help if you want to show me your system. If there are private messages on here (dunno!) then feel free to send it to me on there. Cheers again, Im now adding Last 8 Games home and away instead of only home for the home side and away for the away side. I think Ive found where Im going wrong with the draw. Its the League Table part, I have added a certain amount to the Home Side and Away Side in relation to where they are in the league table. This doesnt add anything to the draw though so its not accurate. Going to have to work out a way to add something to the draw too, maybe with how close they are in the league. Anyone any ideas? Ill have another look just now then see and if Im not sure then Ill send you it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Just edited it and heres the results now. They seem a bit more accurate now. Ill keep going and see how it goes in the next few games. Im going for games with a percentage of 45% or higher on one outcome. Heres the results now: Premiership SPL That seems better, what do you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 16, 2008 Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Hi, from the draw perspective it seems better, however there seem to be some discrepancies which might possibly be caused by too much weighting on league positions. For example, I'd much rather back Sunderland to win @ Blackburn than Stoke to win @ Man U (your system has stoke as much more likely), and likewise Chelsea to win @ West Brom than Portsmouth to win @ West Ham. The other games (the second half of prem) seem about right though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Hi, from the draw perspective it seems better, however there seem to be some discrepancies which might possibly be caused by too much weighting on league positions. For example, I'd much rather back Sunderland to win @ Blackburn than Stoke to win @ Man U (your system has stoke as much more likely), and likewise Chelsea to win @ West Brom than Portsmouth to win @ West Ham. The other games (the second half of prem) seem about right though. Going to have a look into that just now, does seem strange. Heres next weekends SPL Selections: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tafflizgreg Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System agree with what lechero is saying working on something similiar thisseason but want a full season trail if you do not mind sending your system to me will have a look and see where we can work together Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted November 19, 2008 Author Share Posted November 19, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Im going to have another look into it and maybe add goals scored/conceded into it somehow. Meanwhile, heres my Premiership Selections this weekend: Im not sure whether to use bets above 45% or 50%, Ill think over the weekend after seeing the Premiership and SPL results Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System It would be useful if you included the odds you are getting to find out whether the system is profitable or not. Also why would you bet on Man Utd to win when the odds were around 1.15 if you think they only have a 50% chance of winning. Surely this would make them a lay as in the system it would be seen as a value lay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Im looking to make this more accurate as it is right what you say ardman. Currently it uses: - Recent form for all matches - Recent form only home/away (depending on where the team is playing) - Recent matches against opposition - League position Any ideas on what else I should include to make it more accurate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Im looking to make this more accurate as it is right what you say ardman. Currently it uses: - Recent form for all matches - Recent form only home/away (depending on where the team is playing) - Recent matches against opposition - League position Any ideas on what else I should include to make it more accurate? I think some form of points per game is more important than league position...for example 10th position in premier league is more likely to be rated higher than 19th place...but realistically there isn't much to choose between each team. Also I would recommend using win % for home/away teams per division, for example Serie A has 60% home wins whereas Scottish Div 3 only 37%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System I think some form of points per game is more important than league position...for example 10th position in premier league is more likely to be rated higher than 19th place...but realistically there isn't much to choose between each team. Also I would recommend using win % for home/away teams per division, for example Serie A has 60% home wins whereas Scottish Div 3 only 37%. Thanks a lot for your help so far Lechero, its helped a lot. I agree with you on the League position, this seems to weight a team too much. What do you mean about the points per game? In which way could I implement that? I forgot to say I already include win % for home/away teams in each division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Thanks a lot for your help so far Lechero, its helped a lot. I agree with you on the League position, this seems to weight a team too much. What do you mean about the points per game? In which way could I implement that? . No probs! :ok What you could do to implerment points per game is this... Say for example you have different weightings for each area combining to give each team a total rating - so for sake of argument league position has a weighting of 25 out of a team's total rating of 100. You'd get rid of the league position weighting altogether and implement points per game rating for the 25 points instead, using this formula:- (League Points Gained/Total Points Available)*25. So if a team has 20 points from 11 games, it would be (20/33)*25 = 15. Let me know if you need any more help! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System No probs! :ok What you could do to implerment points per game is this... Say for example you have different weightings for each area combining to give each team a total rating - so for sake of argument league position has a weighting of 25 out of a team's total rating of 100. You'd get rid of the league position weighting altogether and implement points per game rating for the 25 points instead, using this formula:- (League Points Gained/Total Points Available)*25. So if a team has 20 points from 11 games, it would be (20/33)*25 = 15. Let me know if you need any more help! That is a lot better now, thanks a lot for that. Im not going to go on percentages just yet. Going to try and tweak the points system first then maybe percentages after that but not too sure yet as they dont accurately reflect the points. Ill update later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted November 27, 2008 Author Share Posted November 27, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Heres this weeks SPL Selections. As this is the first weekend Im using the tweaked version I am unsure about what numbers should be bet on e.g. Above 5 which is what Ive gone for this weekend. Here is this weeks selections. All odds are at Bet365.com SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE SCOTTISH DIVISION 1 ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted November 29, 2008 Author Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Heres the results so far: SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE SCOTTISH DIVISION 1 ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP OVERALL STATS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted November 29, 2008 Author Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Not the best set of results so far but profits, profit. Theres still 5 games to be played it could still go either way. One interesting thing so far is that 5 out of 8 of the NO BET matches so far have been draws. This is 63% which is quite a high stat so I will be keeping an eye on this with 2 NO BET matches still to be played this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomahawk1984 Posted November 29, 2008 Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Hey Muck, I'm also attempting a football system and I also have bets on Wolves, Barnsley and Burnley. Good luck for the rest of your picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted November 30, 2008 Author Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: Muck9s Starting Football System After todays Results we have an overall profit of 2 and a half points which isnt too bad considering there were some results which couldve and maybe shouldve went the other way. 19 Games Selected 7 Winners 36.8% Accuracy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted December 4, 2008 Author Share Posted December 4, 2008 Re: Muck9s Statistical Football System Heres my selections for this weekend: SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE SCOTTISH DIVISION 1 ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted December 7, 2008 Author Share Posted December 7, 2008 Re: Muck9s Statistical Football System Results: SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE SCOTTISH DIVISION 1 ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted December 7, 2008 Author Share Posted December 7, 2008 Re: Muck9s Statistical Football System A very good this weekend with a profit of 7.34pts. A few dodgy results but still a very good profit. After 2 weekends of football, a total of 10.89pts profit Anyone any thoughts on this system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted December 9, 2008 Author Share Posted December 9, 2008 Re: Muck9s Statistical Football System Tonights and Tomorrows Picks: ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muck9 Posted December 9, 2008 Author Share Posted December 9, 2008 Re: Muck9s Statistical Football System ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP Superb set of results for tonight, anyone following this system? Here are the overall stats now: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kamo Posted December 9, 2008 Share Posted December 9, 2008 Re: Muck9s Statistical Football System Well done tonight mate just looked in on this and looks promising.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetallicIan Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 Re: Muck9s Statistical Football System Hiya Muck9 and welcome to PL! Don't want to be a humbug or anything but I think you're miscalculating your profits on your winning selections. Don't forget that a win at odds of say 1.53 is only a profit of 0.53 All the best with your system, Ian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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