Muck9s Statistical Football System

[Muck9]

Hey im just new here and Im looking for a bit of help. ___________________________________________

THIS HAS NOW CHANGED, PLEASE SEE THE POSTS STARTING AT #17 FOR THE RECENT RESULTS FOR MY TWEAKED, BETTER SYSTEM

HERES THE RESULTS OF MY BETTER SYSTEM SO FAR (AS OF 09/12/08)

___________________________________________ I have made a system which takes into account:

• Form in their last 5 games
• Home/Away Win % in that league
• Head to Head stats for the last few times teams have played against each other.
• League Position in the table.

I have included percentage of a Draw in this aswell but this doesnt seem to work so I only go for Home Win/Away Win. At the end it comes up with a percentage of Home Win/Away Win/Draw. If its close then I leave it but if its over 55% in one way (Home/Away Win) then I bet on it. Heres the results so far EPL: SPL: As you can see the results are completely different. It seems to be working so well for the SPL but yet failing quite badly for the English Premiership. Has anyone got any ideas why this could be and any tips to improve this system? Any other stats to include into it to make a more accurate percentage? Cheers. :ok

[Lechero79]

Re: Muck9s Starting Football System Hi mate, It looks like you are attempting something similar to what I'm working on... I use last 6 games form, points per game, home/away win %, home/away record, league win %. From looking at your numbers, it seems that you under rate the draw significantly. I'm not being the master of hindsight, but West Ham v Portsmouth I felt had a high draw chance, yet you only rate it as 4.33%. If you look at stats, depending on each league, a draw is between 20-35% likelihood, with some teams drawing over 40% of their matches. So that's something I think you could look at for improvement. Hope this helps, feel free to ask if you want any more help!