Laying the draw

[jonnyb1978]

Been doing a bit of research on the draw lately and according to statistics ive reduced the chance of a draw to a maximum of 5% for the teams chosen. Now on paper this seems viable as hopefully calculations any information is correct but 5% does seem a low percentage figure which at the minute is saying that 5 bets will lose out of 100. When i say it like that im thinking no chance. For the premier league the teams have been chosen in such a way that back testing it through the season on 6 draws have accured in 119 games. Sounds very good but is it?? Lets find out. Its only a paper trial as i want to see if this works but also im still adding and researching other methods so its no loss if it doesnt but initial thoughts are i dont see why it cant profit. Start Bank £100 Liabilty 10% of bank. Weekend games Hull - Man City @ 3.45 to win £4.08 Everton - Middlesborough @ 3.65 to win £3.77 West Ham - Portmouth @ 3.45 to win £4.08 LASK - Sturm Graz (12.11.08) @ 3.35 to win £4.25

[jonnyb1978]

Re: Laying the draw OK Ive gone over these again and seems they were wrong but not by much. Ive gone through 4 leagues now including the premier league and things look promising. Below are the corresponding number of games in each league that meet the criteria for selection and the number of actual draws. Premier league - 45 games - 6 draws -13.33% = Strike rate of 86.77% League 1 - 35 games - 4 draws - 11.43% = Strike rate of 88.53% League 2 - 31 games - 2 draws - 6.45% = Strike Rate of 93.55% League 3 - 40 games - 3 draws - 7.50% = Strike Rate of 92.50% Now based on average lay odds of 3.45 to win £4.08 (Liability £10). Say £4.00 for ease of use. I will need a strike rate of at least 72% to gain any profit. And the above shows that from the beginning of the season this has clearly been achieved. :hope

[aliando]

Re: Laying the draw good luck jonny

[jonnyb1978]

Re: Laying the draw Im also adding thes fixtures for the weekend... All bets to a liability of £10.00 unless stated for the odd prices that can not get dead on £10.00. Sparta - Volendam @ 4.5 - £9.98 to win £2.85 Ajax - PSV @ 3.6 - £9.98 to win £3.84 Twente - Feyenoord @ 4.3 - to win £3.03 Fc Groningen - De graafschap @ 5.9 to win £2.04 Cottbus - Karlsruhe @ 3.4 to win £4.08 Hertha Berlin - Hamburg @ 3.55 to win £3.92 Mgladbach - Munich @ 4.5 - £9.98 to win £2.95 11 Selections this week so im altering starting bank to £200 and betting a liability of 5%. Its only a paper trial this week but im having a sneak couple of quid on each of these.

[jonnyb1978]

Re: Laying the draw So far i am including top divisions from England, Scotland, Austria, Holland and Germany. I will keep a running tab on games that have drawn that i have missed due to selection criteria. Already this past week since selections have been placed there has been 4 draws i have avoided.

Inverness C.T.

1 - 1

Falkirk

Motherwell

0 - 0

Rangers

Hannover

1 - 1

Bochum

Ried

2 - 2

RB Salzburg

So fingers crossed.:hope A full and final list of selections for the weekend: Hull - Man City @ 3.45 to win £4.08 Everton - Middlesborough @ 3.65 to win £3.77 West Ham - Portmouth @ 3.45 to win £4.08 LASK - Sturm Graz (12.11.08) @ 3.35 to win £4.25 :D Sparta - Volendam @ 4.5 - £9.98 to win £2.85 Ajax - PSV @ 3.6 - £9.98 to win £3.84 Twente - Feyenoord @ 4.3 - to win £3.03 Fc Groningen - De graafschap @ 5.9 to win £2.04 Cottbus - Karlsruhe @ 3.4 to win £4.08 Hertha Berlin - Hamburg @ 3.55 to win £3.92 Mgladbach - Munich @ 4.5 - £9.98 to win £2.95 Inverness - Hearts @ 3.65 to win £3.77 Total 12 bets Total Liability = £120

[jonnyb1978]

Re: Laying the draw

So far i am including top divisions from England, Scotland, Austria, Holland and Germany. I will keep a running tab on games that have drawn that i have missed due to selection criteria. Already this past week since selections have been placed there has been 4 draws i have avoided.

Inverness C.T.

1 - 1

Falkirk

Motherwell

0 - 0

Rangers

Hannover

1 - 1

Bochum

Ried

2 - 2

RB Salzburg

So fingers crossed.:hope A full and final list of selections for the weekend: Hull - Man City @ 3.45 to win £4.08:$ Everton - Middlesborough @ 3.65 to win £3.77:$ West Ham - Portmouth @ 3.45 to win £4.08:$ LASK - Sturm Graz (12.11.08) @ 3.35 to win £4.25 :D Sparta - Volendam @ 4.5 - £9.98 to win £2.85:) Ajax - PSV @ 3.6 - £9.98 to win £3.84:) Twente - Feyenoord @ 4.3 - to win £3.03:$ Fc Groningen - De graafschap @ 5.9 to win £2.04:) Cottbus - Karlsruhe @ 3.4 to win £4.08:) Hertha Berlin - Hamburg @ 3.55 to win £3.92:) Mgladbach - Munich @ 4.5 - £9.98 to win £2.95:$ Inverness - Hearts @ 3.65 to win £3.77:) Total 12 bets Total Liability = £120

Wow this should be the back the draw thread as this just defied the figures. 4 draws in 10 games for the premiership. Thats 40% with an average of 21% so alot more draws than there should of been. I happened to have 3 of those. Not the start i had hoped but with a high amount of draws this week hopefully long term these will balance out and get a week with no draws or near the mark. Total profit = -25.25 Bank = 174.75

[TheLayKing]

Re: Laying the draw

Now based on average lay odds of 3.45 to win £4.08 (Liability £10). Say £4.00 for ease of use. I will need a strike rate of at least 72% to gain any profit. And the above shows that from the beginning of the season this has clearly been achieved. :hope

Your S/R will need to be 77% then mate. You need to allow for commision @ 5%. At 72% s/r by the time you take of your commision you are left with 67% s/r and will incur a loss... Hope this help's mate.;) i will put this but i COULD get picked up on it.. At your current S/r (£10,00 liability used as stated) 72%- 5% com = 67% s/r x £4.08 = £273.36 returned.[A] 33% s/r x £10.00 = £330.00 Lost A-B= -£56.64

[jonnyb1978]

Re: Laying the draw Thanks Layqueen.. My internet been down for 2 weeks so not had chance to post. Last week i picked 3 games with more to come and all 3 won but not sure how would of done overall. This weeks games im picking Sunderland - Bolton - 10.00 to win 4.08 (h) Spurs - Everton - 10.00 to win 3.70 (h) Rapid Vienna - Altech - 10.00 to win 1.92 (h) Karnten - Sturm Graz - 10.00 to win 4.08 (h) Ajax - Utrecht - 10.00 to win 2.08 (h) Celtic - inverness - 10.00 to win 1.55 (h) Hamilton - Kilmarnock - 10.00 to win 4.09 (a) I have also put which team i think will win.