Laying the draw

[jonnyb1978]

Been doing a bit of research on the draw lately and according to statistics ive reduced the chance of a draw to a maximum of 5% for the teams chosen. Now on paper this seems viable as hopefully calculations any information is correct but 5% does seem a low percentage figure which at the minute is saying that 5 bets will lose out of 100. When i say it like that im thinking no chance. For the premier league the teams have been chosen in such a way that back testing it through the season on 6 draws have accured in 119 games. Sounds very good but is it?? Lets find out. Its only a paper trial as i want to see if this works but also im still adding and researching other methods so its no loss if it doesnt but initial thoughts are i dont see why it cant profit. Start Bank £100 Liabilty 10% of bank. Weekend games Hull - Man City @ 3.45 to win £4.08 Everton - Middlesborough @ 3.65 to win £3.77 West Ham - Portmouth @ 3.45 to win £4.08 LASK - Sturm Graz (12.11.08) @ 3.35 to win £4.25

[jonnyb1978]

Re: Laying the draw OK Ive gone over these again and seems they were wrong but not by much. Ive gone through 4 leagues now including the premier league and things look promising. Below are the corresponding number of games in each league that meet the criteria for selection and the number of actual draws. Premier league - 45 games - 6 draws -13.33% = Strike rate of 86.77% League 1 - 35 games - 4 draws - 11.43% = Strike rate of 88.53% League 2 - 31 games - 2 draws - 6.45% = Strike Rate of 93.55% League 3 - 40 games - 3 draws - 7.50% = Strike Rate of 92.50% Now based on average lay odds of 3.45 to win £4.08 (Liability £10). Say £4.00 for ease of use. I will need a strike rate of at least 72% to gain any profit. And the above shows that from the beginning of the season this has clearly been achieved. :hope