Ave's Card Challenge

[averick]

Hi guys, been taking an interest in statistics betting for some time, but it is only up till now that i have more time to look into how i could use the statistics to come up with a system (am going for a course within the next week or two though, and i'll be very busy again). Fonbet has the occasional market for fouls, offsides, corners, cards etc but generally the markets for corner and cards betting are more widespread and easily found among the major books. Been doing rather poorly at corners betting so i stopped awhile ago. Artbrut's doing a rather good job though :ok I started by looking into the following variables: 1. Combined match average 2. Match average (home & away respectively) 3. Previous meetings (up to 2 seasons) 4. Last 5 matches (both overall and home/away) I do think it is rather important to look at previous meetings for a rough idea but i have discovered that looking at the last 5 matches (a reflection of form) is more reliable. So I started to place bets using overall form as an indicator. This went rather decently with minor profits and losses from week to week. So I tried to play around with the system abit and decided to look more closely into the home and away form of the teams, and found that using these statistics gave a more accurate set of predictions. I only started recently though, so with a lack of odds i couldn't do an extensive backtesting. A brief description of the system: I get the stats for the following variables from the internet: 1. Combined match average 2. Match average (home & away respectively) 3. Previous meetings (up to 2 seasons) 4. Last 5 matches (both overall and home/away) I look at 1,2,3 for a brief background on how the two teams are doing cards wise, then i use the data for the last 5 matches to get a set of 25 values, which are estimates of how the game could turn out. Then, depending on the line, i get a percentage bias of which way i should place the bet (over/under). I then compare this percentage with the odds from the bookmakers (namely fonbet, unibet, expekt, blue square, nordicbet, bet365). By converting the odds into a percentage (ignoring the bookmaker's overround), I check whether i am getting odds with "value". For now the difference between the percentage bias and odds percentage doesn't matter, though it does seem to matter for Champions League games. For now this system will cover only Premiership games. As mentioned earlier I found that using home/away stats to be more accurate than the overall statistics. However, if the overall data reinforces the home/away data, then the bet will be doubled. I am putting my own money on the bets listed here but i recommend this as a paper trail. The starting bank will be 100 pts with each bet being 5 pts.

[averick]

Re: Ave's Card Challenge The first bet was on Blackburn - Chelsea under 4.5 cards (double bet), but as i didn't post it before the match it will not contribute to my bank. The next bet: Aston Villa v Middlesbrough Total Cards under 3.5 @ 1.825 5 pts