My Statistical Football Betting System

[Lechero79]

First of all I'd like to say hi to everyone on Punter's Lounge, I've only just discovered this forum (I must have lived under a rock for the last 10 years of my life, because I thought Betfair was the only sports forum on the internet!). Anyway, a bit about myself before I introduce my system. I've been a professional gambler for most of my adult life, although primarily not in sports betting. Although I have done well on sports betting too - I just have never had the time to work at the area before, despite being pretty knowledgeable in football. But I sat down whilst I've been on holiday in the past week and devised my system, I've always been interested in statistics and I think it can be well applied to football betting. So, onto the system. There are 5 weightings which I use to create a rating for the team (out of 25):- 1 - % of games which are won in the division (since I will never back draws, this is obviously very important). 2 - % of home wins/away wins 3 - Points Per Game throughout the season 4 - Points Per Game last 5 home or away matches (depending on whether team is home or away) 5 - Overall last 8 matches form Then, the two teams will combine to give an overall match rating. If a team is positive, then my system says they are more likely to beat the other team. Then, the ratings are compared to the best prices, to seek out differentials (basically teams which my system rates higher than the bookmakers). Here is my first batch of calculations, for this weekend 8th-9th November 2008:- I've done English Premier League, Championship, Scottish Premier League and Divisions 1-3, and the top flights of Germany, France, Italy and Spain. I'm not sure why Scottish 2 and 3 teams paste at the bottom but they are there...and there are some gems there! The rating on the left is the difference between the two teams (hence Barcelona has the biggest differential of the weekend), and the figure on the right is the best price in decimals. In the next post, I'm gonna post my weekend selections.

12.96	Barcelona	1.21
12.15	Genoa	1.55
10.75	Sevilla	1.44
10.48	Villarreal	1.55
10.18	Liverpool	1.25
10.1	Napoli	1.85
9.63	Caen	1.73
9.53	Dunfermline	1.91
9.46	Leverkusen	1.80
9.44	Chelsea	1.53
9.4	Fiorentina	1.55
8.99	Sheff Wed	1.80
8.77	Q of South	1.62
8.44	Villa	1.73
8.21	Hull	2.20
7.72	Wolfsburg	1.30
7.41	Plymouth	1.82
7.12	Rangers	1.53
7.02	Real Madrid	1.22
6.99	St Johnstone	1.65
6.79	AC Milan	1.62
6.77	Celtic	1.29
6.75	Mallorca	2.14
6.68	Bordeaux	1.60
6.64	Juventus	1.67
6.49	Swansea	1.83
6.43	Catania	2.15
6.34	Reading	1.73
5.51	Valencia	2.45
5.35	Hoffenheim	2.60
5.29	Lazio	1.62
5.21	Atletico Madrid	2.25
4.92	Birmingham	2.10
3.98	W Bremen	1.83
3.96	Hibs	1.70
3.90	Le Mans	3.40
3.8	Gijon	4.33
3.50	Toulouse	3.00
3.5	Palermo	3.40
3.47	Fulham	2.40
3.44	Lyon	2.00
3.43	Bielefeld	2.20
3.26	Falkirk	2.63
3.15	Hamburg	1.83
3.14	Rennes	3.40
2.96	Koln	2.25
2.91	Norwich	2.25
2.85	Dundee U	2.10
2.76	Everton	2.80
2.71	Man City	2.25
2.36	St Mirren	2.75
2.28	Inter	1.57
2.19	Wolves	1.87
1.83	Partick	1.80
1.8	Deportivo	2.20
1.46	Lille	3.60
1.40	Marseille	2.20
1.28	Livingston	2.60
0.93	Bologna	5.00
0.87	Southampton	2.50
0.83	QPR	2.10
0.79	Bayern Munich	2.63
0.76	Betis	3.00
0.66	Coventry	2.25
0.60	Frankfurt	3.10
0.56	Man United	2.50
0.45	Wigan	1.82
0.45	Sunderland	2.38
0.35	Valenciennes	2.50
0.25	Ipswich	2.88
0.18	Sheff United	2.63
0.08	Nice	3.50
0.80	Alloa	2.40
10.69	Brechin	1.83
6.07	Ayr	1.53
0.64	Raith	2.50
2.42	Peterhead	1.73
6.62	Montrose	2.20
2.46	Albion	2.70
6.96	Cowdenbeath	1.62
0.94	Forfar	1.82
2.49	Dumbarton	2.80

[Lechero79]

Re: My Statistical Football Betting System So, the selections for this weekend:- Saturday:- Queen of the South to beat Morton @1.56 Caen to beat Le Havre @ 1.76 Leverkusen to beat Karlsruhe @1.78 Sheff Wed to beat Doncaster @1.82 Dunfermline to beat Dundee @1.91 Brechin to beat Arbroath @1.83 Montrose to beat Annan @2.2 Sunday:- Sevilla to beat Recreativo @1.44 Villarreal to beat Almeria @1.57 Mallorca to beat Athletic Bilbao @2.18 Atletico Madrid to beat Osasuna @2.34 Valencia to beat Getafe @2.52 Genoa to beat Reggina @1.57 Napoli to beat Sampdoria @1.87 Catania to beat Cagliari @2.16 Hoffenheim to beat Hertha Berlin @2.66 Aston Villa to beat Middlesborough @1.73 I haven't finalised my stakes yet, but it will probably be working off a betting bank of about £2.5-£3k, so it will be likely £50 or £100 potential profit per match. I'd be really interested in other's thoughts.