Jamesdeanbadfingers Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 ) Hi all Like many of you (no doubt) I've had the frustration of seeing my line destroyed by an odds-on "nailed-on banker" losing (especially away from home!). I've had enough and over the last few weeks I've been seeing this happen more and more and the 8 or so picks I have are starting to see more losses than wins. Case in point - Arsenal (4/9) away at Stoke. If I had the conviction to go for the home win, then it was as good as 5/1 or 6/1 in places. So, if I had got home in time last night I was going to try my system by laying off the favourites - Aston Villa (11/10) and Birmingham (4/7). Newcastle (2/1) and Birmingham (5/1) romped home and I missed out on a 17/1 double, but proved a point to myself and I'm going to try a bet this midweek to see how I get on. Generally, I'll be looking at the teams who have problems at home, but have odds at around 4/7 to Evs (so the odds for the draw and away are still generous...(Leicester spring to mind over the last few weeks - regularly 4/7 but some draws, a loss to Millwall, a late, late comeback at the weekend...MK Dons regularly fall behind...Clyde are shocking at home and the away team still gets generous odds) The potential for this to go t*ts up is pretty easy, but it's small stakes. The potential rewards, however, are pretty huge if you get it right. I'm going to try my first line this week, spanning 8 games over the course of the week, where I think that the favourite will not win. I'll do 8 selections and I'll start week 1 with an accumulator. All or nothing. I know many people don't like them, but doing 4-folds just adds so much to the outlay. I'll pick the teams I think will cause an upset and back the win or draw. 8 selections = 2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2 = 256 lines @ 5p = £12.80. If I get 8 right I could win anything between £200 and £5,000 (depending on the odds and the combination of draw or win, obviously!) I'll keep an update here. Fully expect that I won't get all 8 right, but for the first few weeks I'll see how many I get correct and adjust the 8-fold accordingly (to 4-folds maybe?) Happy to take some comments on this...appreciate all feedback! Regards JDBF :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamesdeanbadfingers Posted November 4, 2008 Author Share Posted November 4, 2008 Re: Sick of odds-on going down strategy... First line... £12.80 as above = 256 x £0.05 lines Cfr Cluj v Bordeaux Match Betting Draw9/4Cfr Cluj v Bordeaux Match Betting Bordeaux23/10Liverpool v Atletico Madrid Match Betting Draw13/5Liverpool v Atletico Madrid Match Betting Atletico Madrid5/1Roma v Chelsea Match Betting Roma13/5Roma v Chelsea Match Betting Draw11/5Brighton v Derby Match Betting Brighton9/5Brighton v Derby Match Betting Draw9/4Bate Borisov v Zenit St Petersburg Match Betting BATE Borisov3/1Bate Borisov v Zenit St Petersburg Match Betting Draw5/2St Etienne v Rosenborg Match Betting Draw5/2St Etienne v Rosenborg Match Betting Rosenborg4/1Lech Poznan v Nancy Match Betting Draw9/4Lech Poznan v Nancy Match Betting Nancy13/8Spartak Moscow v Udinese Match Betting Draw23/10Spartak Moscow v Udinese Match Betting Udinese8/5Total stake£12.80 JDBF :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamesdeanbadfingers Posted November 4, 2008 Author Share Posted November 4, 2008 Re: Sick of odds-on going down strategy... Taking Derby County's win away at Brighton, I think I have further proved a point to myself here... Looking down the list, there were a few tonight I pondered with, as favourites that could slip up, but decided against, just due to not having the bottle, namely... Inter Milan were vulnerable looking at 4/7 away, similar to Arsenal at Stoke, having seen them fail to win at home 0-0 a couple of weekends ago...and this proved correct. Rangers 4/11 at home to Dundee United Barcelona 1/9...! Werder Bremen 4/9 (seen them stutter recently) Rotherham have decent form and Leicester blowing hot and cold, plus it's Johnstone's Paint... Again, benefit of hindsight looks good...! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamesdeanbadfingers Posted November 4, 2008 Author Share Posted November 4, 2008 Re: Sick of odds-on going down strategy... 3 out of 4 correct tonight. Probably best to look at perms of taking 4-folds, etc. Interesting! JDBF :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cassius Marcellus Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Re: Sick of odds-on going down strategy... 1,820 4-folds in 16 games. Good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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